arXiv research

Symbolic regression finds simple formulas for implied volatility.

This research uses DPPs to improve semi-parametric regression models.

Examines algorithmic modeling across three cultures.

We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail how quantile regression is capable of providing an accurate estimation of risk ma…

The paper reviews methods for estimating individual treatment effects using non-parametric regression models.

The paper improves prediction intervals for non-parametric regression using histograms.

Bayesian econometrics improves nowcasting during pandemics.

Study compares non-parametric models for predicting medical insurance reimbursement delays.

Proposes extensions to semi-parametric models using BART for shared covariates.

ADA augments data using AR replicas for robust regression.

For multi-valued functions---such as when the conditional distribution on targets given the inputs is multi-modal---standard regression approaches are not always desirable because they provide the conditional mean. Modal regression algorithms address this issue by instead finding the conditional mode(s). Most, however,…

In this paper, we propose a non-parametric conditional factor regression (NCFR)model for domains with high-dimensional input and response. NCFR enhances linear regression in two ways: a) introducing low-dimensional latent factors leading to dimensionality reduction and b) integrating an Indian Buffet Process as a prior…

A new principle for extrapolating regression outside training data.

Neural networks can learn relationships that traditional models cannot.

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases. Based on a local adaptive representation of random forests, we develop its regre…

Physical modeling of robotic system behavior is the foundation for controlling many robotic mechanisms to a satisfactory degree. Mechanisms are also typically designed in a way that good model accuracy can be achieved with relatively simple models and model identification strategies. If the modeling accuracy using phys…

Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is a standard method for performing non-parametric regression over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Given $n$ samples, the time and space complexity of computing the KRR estimate scale as $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$ and $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ respectively, and so is prohibitive in many cases. We prop…

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases. Based on a local adaptive representation of random forests, we develop its regre…

Tests for equivariance in non-parametric regression models.

The paper studies binary classification and aims at estimating the underlying regression function which is the conditional expectation of the class labels given the inputs. The regression function is the key component of the Bayes optimal classifier, moreover, besides providing optimal predictions, it can also assess t…

Bayesian framework for semiparametric regression of discrete data.

The article presents a new non-parametric approach for forecasting mortality and fertility using Gaussian process regression.

The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not yet been well-established for regression tasks. This paper considers the problem…

Improved neural network regression uncertainty estimation.

We address challenges in estimating parameters from adaptively collected data.

Develops a simple method for creating private confidence intervals.

New algorithm reduces dynamic regret for noisy gradient feedback with piecewise polynomial comparators.

Additive nonparametric regression models provide an attractive tool for variable selection in high dimensions when the relationship between the response and predictors is complex. They offer greater flexibility compared to parametric non-linear regression models and better interpretability and scalability than the non-…

The paper develops a new method for estimating non-parametric regression functions with spatio-temporal dependencies.

A new approach for signal parametrization, which consists of a specific regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process, is proposed. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method performed by a dedicated Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters of the hidden logis…

Paper compares different models for time-to-event analysis.

This study improves tail risk forecasting by integrating overnight information into semi-parametric models.

The paper analyzes high-dimensional linear regression using parametric empirical Bayes methods.

Random forest (RF) methodology is one of the most popular machine learning techniques for prediction problems. In this article, we discuss some cases where random forests may suffer and propose a novel generalized RF method, namely regression-enhanced random forests (RERFs), that can improve on RFs by borrowing the str…

We consider the task of low-multilinear-rank functional regression, i.e., learning a low-rank parametric representation of functions from scattered real-valued data. Our first contribution is the development and analysis of an efficient gradient computation that enables gradient-based optimization procedures, including…

In this paper we develop the theory of parametric polynomial regression in Riemannian manifolds and Lie groups. We show application of Riemannian polynomial regression to shape analysis in Kendall shape space. Results are presented, showing the power of polynomial regression on the classic rat skull growth data of Book…

SPQR package uses neural networks for flexible quantile regression.

New framework forecasts ES using weighted quantiles.

Model inference for dynamical systems aims to estimate the future behaviour of a system from observations. Purely model-free statistical methods, such as Artificial Neural Networks, tend to perform poorly for such tasks. They are therefore not well suited to many questions from applications, for example in Bayesian fil…

This work introduces the concept of parametric Gaussian processes (PGPs), which is built upon the seemingly self-contradictory idea of making Gaussian processes parametric. Parametric Gaussian processes, by construction, are designed to operate in "big data" regimes where one is interested in quantifying the uncertaint…

In this paper, we study large-scale convex optimization algorithms based on the Newton method applied to regularized generalized self-concordant losses, which include logistic regression and softmax regression. We first prove that our new simple scheme based on a sequence of problems with decreasing regularization para…

A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected Shortfall (ES) components, to jointly estimate and forecast VaR and ES. The measu…

Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations using Wishart diffusions.

Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick to inference in a parametric Bayesian model. For example, Gaussian process regre…

Develops regression trees for estimating cumulative incidence curves in competing risks.

Semi-parametric framework for nonlinear system identification

Consider a multi-variate time series $(X_t)_{t=0}^{T}$ where $X_t \in \mathbb{R}^d$ which may represent spike train responses for multiple neurons in a brain, crime event data across multiple regions, and many others. An important challenge associated with these time series models is to estimate an influence network be…

In this paper, we consider a generalized multivariate regression problem where the responses are monotonic functions of linear transformations of predictors. We propose a semi-parametric algorithm based on the ordering of the responses which is invariant to the functional form of the transformation function. We prove t…