A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Modeling financial bubbles and crashes with a cubic momentum function.
This study analyzes cryptocurrency market crashes using complex network analysis.
Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat, or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single…
Cross-sectional signatures of market panic were recently discussed on daily time scales in [1], extended here to a study of cross-sectional properties of stocks on intra-day time scales. We confirm specific intra-day patterns of dispersion and kurtosis, and find that the correlation across stocks increases in times of …
We study properties of the cross-sectional distribution of returns. A significant anti-correlation between dispersion and cross-sectional kurtosis is found such that dispersion is high but kurtosis is low in panic times, and the opposite in normal times. The co-movement of stock returns also increases in panic times. W…
We run experimental asset markets to investigate the emergence of excess trading and the occurrence of synchronised trading activity leading to crashes in the artificial markets. The market environment favours early investment in the risky asset and no posterior trading, i.e. a buy-and-hold strategy with a most probabl…
The crowd panic and its contagion play non-negligible roles at the time of the stock crash, especially for China where inexperienced investors dominate the market. However, existing models rarely consider investors in networking stocks and accordingly miss the exact knowledge of how panic contagion leads to abrupt cras…
Is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) more or less than one? This question can be answered by confronting theoretical results of asset pricing models with investor behaviour during episodes of stock market panic. If we consider these episodes as periods of high risk aversion, then lower asset prices are…
I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This proposal seeks to incorporate five distinct but connected processes that have been …
Study uses sentiment analysis to predict implied volatility surface, improving prediction accuracy.
Trust is a collective, self-fulfilling phenomenon that suggests analogies with phase transitions. We introduce a stylized model for the build-up and collapse of trust in networks, which generically displays a first order transition. The basic assumption of our model is that whereas trust begets trust, panic also begets…
Short selling is key to exploiting arbitrage opportunities in financial markets.
Margin trading and short selling boost green tech innovation in China.
We study the problem of selling an asset near its ultimate maximum in the minimax setting. The regret-based notion of a perfect stopping time is introduced. A perfect stopping time is uniquely characterized by its optimality properties and has the following form: one should sell the asset if its price deviates from the…
Paper finds optimal selling rule for pairs trading with stock constraints.
One dimensional stylized model taking into account spatial activity of firms with uniformly distributed customers is proposed. The spatial selling area of each firm is defined by a short interval cut out from selling space (large interval). In this representation, the firm size is directly associated with the size of i…
It is a common belief that the behavior of shareholders depends upon the direction of price fluctuations: if prices increase they buy, if prices decrease they sell. That belief, however, is more based on ``common sense'' than on facts. In this paper we present evidence for a specific class of shareholders which shows t…
This paper is concerned with an optimal stock selling rule under a Markov chain model. The objective is to find an optimal stopping time to sell the stock so as to maximize an expected return. Solutions to the associated variational inequalities are obtained. Closed-form solutions are given in terms of a set of thresho…
The study analyzes aftershocks of stock market crashes using statistical methods.
Study optimal portfolio strategies with periodic evaluation under short-selling prohibition.
Study models systemic risks in BRICS banks under geopolitical shocks.
Study examines insider trading in short-selling restricted markets.
We investigate the impact of capital gains taxes on optimal investment decisions in a quite simple model. Namely, we consider a risk neutral investor who owns one risky stock from which she assumes that it has a lower expected return than the riskless bank account and determine the optimal stopping time at which she se…
This paper uses RL to optimize bid-ask spreads for illiquid corporate bonds.
A financial model without short-selling shows deviations from normality.
We solved a stylized fact on a long memory process of volatility cluster phenomena by using Minkowski metric for GARCH(1,1) under assumption that price and time can not be separated. We provide a Yang-Mills equation in financial market and anomaly on superspace of time series data as a consequence of the proof from the…
Corporate transparency reduces investors' disposition effect by increasing confidence in holding profitable and losing stocks.
Through a short sale, a person borrows a share of stock from a lender, sells the borrowed share to a third person at the current price, and purchases an identical share in the market at a future date and at a future price to replace the borrowed share of stock. This only makes sense if the short seller anticipates a do…
The paper uses RFM and clustering to segment bank customers.
Optimal buying and selling times for homes in fluctuating interest rates.
Suppose you have one unit of stock, currently worth 1, which you must sell before time . The Optional Sampling Theorem tells us that whatever stopping time we choose to sell, the expected discounted value we get when we sell will be 1. Suppose however that we are able to see units of time into the future, and ba…
This paper studies the optimal risk-averse timing to sell a risky asset. The investor's risk preference is described by the exponential, power, or log utility. Two stochastic models are considered for the asset price -- the geometric Brownian motion and exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models -- to account for, respectiv…
This paper studies the valuation of European contingent claims with short selling bans under the equal risk pricing (ERP) framework proposed in Guo and Zhu (2017) where analytical pricing formulae were derived in the case of monotonic payoffs under risk-neutral measures. We establish a unified framework for this new pr…
A speculative agent with Prospect Theory preference chooses the optimal time to purchase and then to sell an indivisible risky asset to maximize the expected utility of the round-trip profit net of transaction costs. The optimization problem is formulated as a sequential optimal stopping problem and we provide a comple…
Investors with anxiety about drawdowns may use stop-loss and trailing stops as optimal selling strategies.
Investigates how trading boundaries change with transaction costs in portfolio selection.
Investors in Bitcoin exhibit the disposition effect, selling winners and holding losers.
This paper uses DRL for long-short portfolio optimization, improving risk-adjusted returns.
A monopolist sells goods with possibly a characteristic consumers dislike (for instance, he sells random goods to risk averse agents), which does not affect the production costs. We investigate the question whether using undesirable goods is profitable to the seller. We prove that in general this may be the case, depen…
Trailing stop is a popular stop-loss trading strategy by which the investor will sell the asset once its price experiences a pre-specified percentage drawdown. In this paper, we study the problem of timing buy and then sell an asset subject to a trailing stop. Under a general linear diffusion framework, we study an opt…
We have analyzed the statistical probabilities of limit-order book (LOB) shape through building the book using the ultra-high-frequency data from 23 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. We find that the averaged LOB shape has a maximum away from the same best price for both buy and sell LOBs. Th…
Optimal trading strategy in Proof-of-Stake blockchain using continuous-time control.
Study reveals how investor flows impact stock prices, especially during herding episodes.
Sell-side analysts' reports explain 10% of stock returns, with income statement analyses most impactful.
This paper investigates the effects of the "uptick rule" (a short selling regulation formally known as rule 10a-1) by means of a simple stock market model, based on the ARED (adaptive rational equilibrium dynamics) modeling framework, where heterogeneous and adaptive beliefs on the future prices of a risky asset were f…
Buying or selling assets leads to transaction costs for the investor. On one hand, it is well know to all market practionaires that the transaction costs are positive on average and present therefore systematic loss. On the other hand, for every trade, there is a buy side and a sell side, the total amount of asset and …
We reconsider the problem of optimal time to sell a stock studied recently by Shiryaev, Xu and Zhou using path integral methods. This method allows us to confirm the results obtained by these authors and extend them to a parameter region inaccessible to the method used by Shiryaev et. al. We also obtain the full distri…
New method learns interaction-aware orderbook representation for better intraday electricity price forecasting.