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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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130261391521 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for pairwise prediction

PIN models feature interactions using a neural network that mimics decision trees.

problem Modeling feature interactions in tabular data for predictive modeling.
method Tree-like Pairwise Interaction Network (PIN) architecture that captures pairwise feature interactions through a shared feed-forward neural network.
result PIN outperforms traditional and modern neural networks benchmarks in predictive accuracy.

Recent semi-supervised anomaly detection methods that are trained using small labeled anomaly examples and large unlabeled data (mostly normal data) have shown largely improved performance over unsupervised methods. However, these methods often focus on fitting abnormalities illustrated by the given anomaly examples on…

2019-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm improves volatility forecasting using Pairwise Markov Chains.

problem Inability to effectively predict volatility due to feature problem and non-stationarity.
method Introduced a new algorithm for prediction with Pairwise Markov Chains (PMC), extending its capabilities.
result Enhanced performance of volatility forecasting models compared to GARCH(1,1) and feedforward neural models.

Three supervised learning methods for selecting logratios in compositional data analysis.

problem Selecting logratios for predicting a dependent variable in compositional data.
method Three supervised learning methods: unrestricted search, parts restriction, and additive logratios.
result The first method excels in predictive power, while the other two are more interpretable.

Develops a statistical framework to measure uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences.

problem Uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences due to mismatch between human and model preferences.
method Statistical framework using pairwise comparisons by humans and models to provide rank-sets for each model.
result Rank-sets constructed using only pairwise comparisons by strong models often do not cover the true ranking of human preferences.

Matrix factorization is at the heart of many machine learning algorithms, for example, dimensionality reduction (e.g. kernel PCA) or recommender systems relying on collaborative filtering. Understanding a singular value decomposition (SVD) of a matrix as a neural network optimization problem enables us to decompose lar…

2017-02-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Study learns linear utility functions from comparisons, showing learnability gaps between passive and active learning.

problem Learn linear utility functions from pairwise comparison queries.
method Analyzes passive and active learning settings, considering noise-free and noisy query responses.
result Efficient learnability of linear utilities in passive learning, but not for utility parameters without strong assumptions.

GAMI-Net improves neural network interpretability while maintaining accuracy.

problem Lack of interpretability in neural network models.
method GAMI-Net is a disentangled feedforward network with multiple additive subnetworks designed for capturing main effects and pairwise interactions, considering sparsity, heredity, and marginal clarity.
result GAMI-Net achieves superior interpretability and competitive prediction accuracy compared to explainable boosting machine and other models.

Class2Simi reduces noise in noisy label learning by transforming noisy class labels into noisy similarity labels.

problem Learning with noisy labels in supervised and unsupervised settings.
method Transforming noisy class labels into noisy similarity labels, training DNNs from noisy data pairs.
result The noise rate reduction is theoretically guaranteed, making it easier to handle noisy similarity labels.

New model for pairwise comparisons without stochastic transitivity.

problem Suboptimal performance of models assuming stochastic transitivity in real-world scenarios.
method Proposes a general family of statistical models using a skew-symmetric matrix.
result Achieves minimax-rate optimality and adapts to data sparsity.

Pairwise quantile regression tackles similarity scoring in biometric systems.

problem Analyzing errors in similarity scoring for facial recognition.
method Established theoretical guarantees for pairwise quantile regression solutions, leveraging sharp concentration results for UU-processes.
result Proved generalization bounds and identified conditions for fast learning rates.

Structured prediction can be thought of as a simultaneous prediction of multiple labels. This is often done by maximizing a score function on the space of labels, which decomposes as a sum of pairwise and unary potentials. The above is naturally modeled with a graph, where edges and vertices are related to pairwise and…

2019-06-02abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper addresses calibration in label ranking, a structured prediction task.

problem Calibration in label ranking is not well understood and often poorly calibrated.
method Formalized calibration for label ranking, developed a hierarchy of notions, and empirically evaluated models.
result Popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics.

Uncoupled regression is the problem to learn a model from unlabeled data and the set of target values while the correspondence between them is unknown. Such a situation arises in predicting anonymized targets that involve sensitive information, e.g., one's annual income. Since existing methods for uncoupled regression …

2019-05-31abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a topic modeling approach to the prediction of preferences in pairwise comparisons. We develop a new generative model for pairwise comparisons that accounts for multiple shared latent rankings that are prevalent in a population of users. This new model also captures inconsistent user behavior in a natural wa…

2014-12-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a new causal model for path-dependent link prediction.

problem Existing causal models assume fixed node factors, but real-world links can depend on existing ones.
method Introduces causal lifting and structural pairwise embeddings for path-dependent link prediction.
result Validated on three scenarios, demonstrating improved accuracy for causal link prediction.

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We achieve this by replacing the static parameters of a class of popular pairwise-compari…

2019-03-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Comparison data arises in many important contexts, e.g. shopping, web clicks, or sports competitions. Typically we are given a dataset of comparisons and wish to train a model to make predictions about the outcome of unseen comparisons. In many cases available datasets have relatively few comparisons (e.g. there are on…

2018-07-24abs ↗pdf ↗

The functions of proteins and RNAs are determined by a myriad of interactions between their constituent residues, but most quantitative models of how molecular phenotype depends on genotype must approximate this by simple additive effects. While recent models have relaxed this constraint to also account for pairwise in…

2017-12-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock exchanges. Using a maximum entropy approach, we find coordinated behaviour during tre…

2013-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Given a binary prediction problem, which performance metric should the classifier optimize? We address this question by formalizing the problem of Metric Elicitation. The goal of metric elicitation is to discover the performance metric of a practitioner, which reflects her innate rewards (costs) for correct (incorrect)…

2018-06-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Novel ML model predicts solvation free energies from atom interactions.

problem Predicting solvation free energies from atomistic interactions.
method Two encoding functions extract atomic feature vectors, interactions calculated by inner product.
result Outstanding performance and transferability on 6,493 experimental measurements.

Paper presents a novel nonparametric method to price Asian options.

problem Difficulty in pricing Asian options, especially with arithmetic average price.
method Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) for Asian option pricing.
result NPI method provides a more precise and uncertain prediction of future asset prices.

We study the problem of ranking from crowdsourced pairwise comparisons. Answers to pairwise tasks are known to be affected by the position of items on the screen, however, previous models for aggregation of pairwise comparisons do not focus on modeling such kind of biases. We introduce a new aggregation model factorBT …

2019-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

New method interprets machine learning forecasts as historical analogies.

problem Interpreting machine learning predictions as a sum of predictor contributions.
method Expressing predictions as a linear combination of in-sample values with weights based on pairwise proximity scores.
result The approach provides sparser interpretations in settings with many regressors and little training data.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration amon…

2018-02-20abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a novel parameterized family of Mixed Membership Mallows Models (M4) to account for variability in pairwise comparisons generated by a heterogeneous population of noisy and inconsistent users. M4 models individual preferences as a user-specific probabilistic mixture of shared latent Mallows components. Our k…

2015-04-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Structured prediction tasks in machine learning involve the simultaneous prediction of multiple labels. This is typically done by maximizing a score function on the space of labels, which decomposes as a sum of pairwise elements, each depending on two specific labels. Intuitively, the more pairwise terms are used, the …

2014-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The study reveals how synaptic correlations promote dimension reduction in neural networks.

problem Understanding how synaptic correlations affect neural correlations and dimension reduction in deep neural networks.
method A simplified model of dimension reduction considering pairwise correlations among synapses, using mathematical self-consistency for both binary and continuous synapses.
result Weakly-correlated synapses encourage dimension reduction compared to orthogonal synapses, and they also slow down the decorrelation process.

In this study, a pairwise comparison matrix is generalized to the case when coefficients create Lie group GG, non necessarily abelian. A necessary and sufficient criterion for pairwise comparisons matrices to be consistent is provided. Basic criteria for finding a nearest consistent pairwise comparisons matrix (extend…

2016-01-23abs ↗pdf ↗