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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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12233546 · Apr 202619922001200920172026
48 results for overlooked economics

Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.

problem Accuracy of economic theories and policies depend on economic variables and processes.
method Identify and analyze overlooked economic variables and processes.
result Many economic variables and processes not accounted for in current theories.

Alpha-R1 uses LLMs to reason about economic factors and news for better alpha screening.

problem Challenges in data-driven investment strategies due to signal decay and regime shifts.
method Reinforcement learning trained on 8B parameters to evaluate alpha relevance under changing market conditions.
result Empirically outperforms benchmark strategies and shows improved robustness to alpha decay.

The study addresses overlooked data-generating processes in time-series asset pricing.

problem The literature on time-series asset pricing overlooks the data-generating processes for factors expressed in return differences.
method The study proposes a new definition of returns and compound returns for factors, and uses OLS with net returns for single-index models.
result OLS with net returns for single-index models leads to inflated alphas, exaggerated t-values, and overestimated Sharpe ratios.

Study analyzes global public sentiment on DeFi from 2012-2022.

problem Global public sentiment on DeFi is understudied.
method Sentiment analysis, spatial econometrics, clustering, topic modeling.
result Economic development significantly influences DeFi engagement, especially after 2015.

Framework integrates financial and annual report data for better corporate credit ratings.

problem Lack of insights from non-financial data in credit rating models.
method Uses FinBERT to extract features from annual reports and combines them with financial data.
result Improves credit rating accuracy by 8-12%.

Quantitative model predicts Sri Lankan stock market using NLP, clustering, and time-series forecasting.

problem Predicting economic regimes and market signals in Sri Lankan stock indices.
method Integrates NLP, clustering, and time-series forecasting; uses FinBERT for sentiment analysis, UMAP/HDBSCAN for clustering, and GRU/LSTM for forecasting.
result GRU model achieves 80.1% R-squared for daily closing price forecasts.

Study shows how firms adapt to systemic risk during crises, revealing key players and trade volume predictors.

problem Understanding systemic risk in local production networks during crises.
method Analyzing Hungarian production network dynamics from 2015 to 2022 using a null model and empirical data.
result Firms' adaptive behavior during crises leads to more resilient economies, with trade volume being a significant predictor.

This study models FOMC policy decisions using debate-based LLMs.

problem Accurately predicting central bank policy decisions, especially FOMC's, is challenging.
method A novel framework that simulates FOMC's collective decision-making process through iterative rounds of LLMs interacting as agents.
result The debate-based approach significantly outperforms standard LLMs in prediction accuracy.

Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.

problem Understanding and predicting business cycles through economic agents' risk dynamics.
method Continuous numerical risk grades for economic agents, modeling collective economic variables and flows as functions of risk coordinates, deriving equations for their evolution.
result Business and credit cycles are explained as fluctuations of collective economic variables and their mean risks in the risk space of economic agents.

This mathematical essay brings together ideas from Economics, Geobiodynamics and Thermodynamics. Its purpose is to obtain real models of complex evolutionary systems. More specifically, the essay defines Roegenian Economy and links Geobiodynamics and Roegenian Economy. In this context, we discuss the isomorphism betwee…

2018-11-06abs ↗pdf ↗

The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the network of correlations to reveal the changing relationships among the financial,…

2010-11-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper classifies economic states and optimizes portfolios for stagflationary environments.

problem Economic uncertainty and stagflationary conditions.
method Mathematical techniques for analyzing multivariate time series, economic driver analysis, self-similarity identification, and portfolio optimization.
result Constructs economic state classifications and computes economic state integrals.

Surveying machine learning methods for economic forecasting.

problem Improving accuracy of economic forecasts using machine learning.
method Nowcasting, textual data, panel and tensor data, high-dimensional Granger causality tests, time series cross-validation, classification with economic losses.
result Recent advances in machine learning methods enhance economic forecasting accuracy.

Second-order economic theory considers new variables to improve price volatility predictions.

problem Current economic models focus on first-order variables, missing second-order variables that affect price volatility.
method Introduces second-order economic theory with new variables composed of sums of squares of agents' transactions.
result Second-order economic theory complements first-order variables and introduces new macroeconomic variables.

Benchmark assesses LLMs' causal inference skills, revealing significant limitations.

problem Lack of rigorous evaluation of LLMs' causal inference capabilities.
method CausalPitfalls benchmark with structured challenges and grading rubrics.
result Significant limitations in current LLMs' statistical causal inference.

Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search …

2015-09-09abs ↗pdf ↗

We recall the similarities between the concepts and techniques of Thermodynamics and Roegenian Economics. The Phase Diagram for a Roegenian economic system highlights a triple point and a critical point, with related explanations. These ideas can be used to improve our knowledge and understanding of the nature of devel…

2018-11-06abs ↗pdf ↗

The algebra of transactions as fundamental measurements is constructed on the basis of the analysis of their properties and represents an expansion of the Boolean algebra. The notion of the generalized economic measurements of the economic quantity and quality of objects of transactions is introduced. It has been shown…

2014-12-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Economics does not need a scientific revolution. Economics needs accurate measurements according to high standards of natural sciences and meticulous work on revealing empirical relationships between measured variables.

2009-04-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Study uses Perelman and Ricci flow methods to analyze economic inequality.

problem Impact of socio-economic challenges and technological progress on economic inequality.
method Perelman model and Ricci flow methods.
result Technological innovations and social protection programs reduce inequality.

DRL enhances economic modeling with deep learning methods.

problem Complex dynamic business environments in economics.
method Comprehensive review of DL, RL, and deep RL methods applied to economics.
result DRL provides better performance and higher accuracy in economic applications.

New framework for interpretable firm characteristics factors.

problem Creating statistically efficient and economically interpretable factors from firm characteristics.
method Grouping related characteristics and deriving one factor per group, combining economic intuition with data-driven clustering.
result Parsimonious, transparent factors outperform benchmarks in out-of-sample tests.

We analyze social and economic systems with a hierarchical structure and show that for such systems, it is possible to construct thermostatistics, based on the intermediate Gentile statistics. We show that in social and economic hierarchical systems there are elements that obey the Fermi-Dirac statistics and can be cal…

2018-05-13abs ↗pdf ↗

In this editorial guide for the special issue on econophysics, we give a unique review of this young but quickly growing discipline. A suggestive taxonomy of the development is proposed by making a distinction between classical econophysics and modern econophysics. For each of these two stages of development, we identi…

2011-07-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a result, appearance of economic crisis is determined by two points; that is, (a). …

2010-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Developing an AI economist agent using RAG, knowledge graphs, and LLMs for economic scenario analysis.

problem Economic scenario analysis using large language models and knowledge graphs.
method Proposing an RAG-based AI economist framework that utilizes knowledge graphs and LLMs.
result Improves economic coherence and traceability in generated reports.

The paper presents instructive interdisciplinary applications of constrained mechanics calculus in economics on a level appropriate for the undergraduate physics education. The aim of the paper is: 1. to meet the demand for illustrative examples suitable for presenting the background of the highly expanding research fi…

2011-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves stock return prediction by switching between economic states, outperforming traditional methods.

problem Improving stock return prediction across economic regimes.
method State-switching specification using the slope of the yield curve, with an Aligned Economic Index.
result The Aligned Economic Index outperforms traditional predictors, especially during market turbulence.