New approach tackles decision-making under predictions that shape outcomes.
problem Challenges in learning optimal decision rules when predictions influence outcomes.
method Introduces performative omniprediction, a predictor that encodes optimal decision rules for multiple objectives.
result Efficient performative omnipredictors exist under a natural restriction of outcome performativity.
Study assesses weakly-supervised methods for rare outcomes in medical records.
problem Identifying patients with specific medical conditions using electronic health records.
method Compared three methods (PheNorm, MAP, and sureLDA) in simulations with varying outcomes and silver labels.
result No single method consistently outperformed others, but sureLDA often did well.
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
Bayesian optimization learns DM preferences for multi-outcome experiments.
problem Optimizing expensive experiments with unknown utility functions and multiple outcomes.
method Alternates preference learning and Bayesian optimization, using pairwise comparisons.
result Preference exploration strategies improve Bayesian optimization performance.
When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far been neglected in supervised learning. When ignored, performativity surfaces as…
Fuses ITRs for primary and secondary outcomes to minimize harm.
problem Learn an ITR maximizing primary outcome while minimizing harm to secondary outcomes.
method Introduces fusion penalty to encourage similar recommendations for different outcomes. Two algorithms estimate the ITR using surrogate loss functions.
result Agreement rate between primary and secondary optimal ITRs converges faster than ignoring secondary outcomes.
Reduces variance in noisy social outcomes to improve policy evaluation and optimization.
problem Improving access to opportunity through personalized treatment decisions.
method Data-driven dimensionality-reduction using reduced rank regression to denoise multiple outcomes.
result Improves estimation error in policy evaluation and optimization, including on real-world data.
Achilles Tendon Rupture (ATR) is one of the typical soft tissue injuries. Rehabilitation after such a musculoskeletal injury remains a prolonged process with a very variable outcome. Accurately predicting rehabilitation outcome is crucial for treatment decision support. However, it is challenging to train an automatic …
Flow IV uses IVs to infer counterfactuals in complex models.
problem Identifying causal effects and counterfactual reasoning in nonseparable outcome models.
method Utilizes instrumental variables and normalizing flows to estimate and infer counterfactual outcomes.
result Identifies a method to make causal inferences from observed data in nonseparable models.
LUQ-Learning adapts Q-learning for healthcare decisions considering patient preferences.
problem Optimizing treatment decisions for multivariate outcomes based on individual preferences.
method Latent Utility Q-Learning (LUQ-Learning) framework that adapts Q-learning for composite outcomes.
result LUQ-Learning achieves highly competitive performance compared to alternative methods in simulations.
Random forest models predict CLABSI risk in hospital admissions, with static models performing similarly to dynamic ones.
problem Predicting CLABSI risk in hospital admissions using EHR data with competing risks.
method Comparison of static and dynamic random forest models for binary, multinomial, survival, and competing risks outcomes.
result Static and dynamic random forest models perform similarly in predicting CLABSI risk, with multinomial models having the lowest computation times.
Deep learning model predicts severe COVID-19 outcomes.
problem Predicting severe COVID-19 outcomes in ED patients.
method Deep feature fusion model using EHR data and CXR images.
result CO-RISK score achieved AUC of 0.95 and 0.92 for 24 and 72 hours predictions, superior to human performance.
There is tremendous interest in precision medicine as a means to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatment to individual characteristics. An individualized treatment rule formalizes precision medicine as a map from patient information to a recommended treatment. A treatment rule is defined to be optimal if it max…
We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalize…
New copula-based models for binary outcomes capture complex interactions.
problem Complex interaction effects in binary outcome models.
method Additive models with copula-based components, no discretization required.
result Better or comparable predictive performance compared to other methods.
Fairness measures fail in predictive settings that intentionally shift outcomes.
problem Fairness measures fail in performative prediction settings.
method Formalized concept shift and counterfactual outcomes.
result Predictors that are fair during training become unfair during deployment.
The paper targets optimal interventions for long-term outcomes using imputed data and policy learning.
problem Maximizing long-term outcomes observed only in the future.
method Imputing missing long-term outcomes and using a doubly-robust approach for policy evaluation and optimization.
result The approach outperforms simple short-term proxies and achieves significant revenue impact over three years.
Satellite imagery helps assess sustainable development with machine learning.
problem Lack of ground data on sustainable development outcomes.
method Combining satellite imagery with machine learning to model outcomes.
result Machine learning models perform well across multiple sustainable development domains.
Develops new methods to estimate treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
problem Estimating treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
method Censoring Unbiased Transformations (CUTs) for survival outcomes with and without competing risks.
result Consistent estimates of heterogeneous cumulative incidence effects and total effects using HTE learners.
Paper proposes Bayesian TMLE methods for causal effect uncertainty quantification.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in causal effect estimation.
method Three Bayesian TMLE approaches for binary and continuous outcomes.
result BN-TMLE outperforms classical implementations in small data regimes.
Develops a Causal Transformer for estimating counterfactual outcomes from longitudinal data.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is challenging due to complex, long-range dependencies.
method Combines three transformer subnetworks with separate inputs for time-varying covariates, previous treatments, and previous outcomes into a joint network with in-between cross-attentions. Uses a custom, end-to-end training procedure with a counterfactual domain confusion loss to address confounding bias.
result Achieves superior performance over current baselines in synthetic and real-world datasets.
DFIV uses deep neural nets to learn nonlinear features in IV regression.
problem Learning causal relationships from observational data with nonlinear interactions.
method DFIV trains deep neural nets to define nonlinear features on instruments and treatments, alternating training to compose stages 1 and 2.
result DFIV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on IV benchmarks and off-policy policy evaluation.
Deep neural networks for ordinal outcomes combining image and tabular data.
problem Lack of interpretable models for ordinal outcomes in mixed data types.
method Ordinal Neural Network Transformation Models (ONTRAMs) integrating DL and classical ordinal regression.
result ONTRAMs achieve performance equivalent to standard multi-class DL models but are faster and more interpretable.
New metric MADD assesses fairness of predictive student models.
problem Predictive student models can be biased and unfair, leading to discrimination.
method Proposes MADD metric to analyze model's discriminatory behaviors.
result Fair predictive performance does not guarantee fair behaviors or outcomes.
Accurately predicting the outcome of sporting events has been a goal for many groups who seek to maximize profit. What makes this challenging is that the outcome of an event can be influenced by many factors that dynamically change across time. Oddsmakers attempt to estimate these factors by using both algorithmic and …
Theorem ensures superior learning outcomes for authorized learners with quantum label encoding.
problem Ensuring data security for authorized learners in machine learning.
method Quantum label encoding and PAC learning framework.
result Authorized learners achieve superior learning outcomes while eavesdroppers do not.
We show social events can be accurately predicted, but often undesirably.
problem The predictability of social events and its implications.
method Recent ideas from performative prediction and outcome indistinguishability.
result Social events can be efficiently predicted accurately, but often undesirably.
R-Learning uses inverse-variance weights to estimate treatment effects more accurately.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (CATEs) with stable and accurate methods.
method R-Learning with inverse-variance weights (IVWs) for pseudo-outcome regression.
result IVWs improve the stability and accuracy of CATE estimation.
Machine learning reduces variance in online experiment results.
problem Reducing variance in randomized controlled trials.
method Machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect estimator (MLRATE).
result MLRATE reduces estimator variance by over 70% in A/A tests.
MLHO predicts COVID-19 adverse outcomes using past medical records.
problem Predicting adverse outcomes after COVID-19 infection.
method Iterative feature and algorithm selection, sequential representation mining.
result Mean AUC ROC of 0.91 for mortality prediction.
CCN estimates full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
problem Estimating CATE is insufficient; full potential outcome distributions provide greater insights.
method Collaborating Causal Networks (CCN) learns full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
result CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture true potential outcome distributions.
DFL framework improves action and outcome fairness in policy learning.
problem Fairness in policy learning, especially action and outcome fairness.
method Integrates action and outcome fairness into a multi-objective optimization problem using a lexicographic weighted Tchebyshev method.
result DFL framework improves both action and outcome fairness with minimal value reduction.
We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncert…
A new uplift modeling approach uses binary treatment indicators more efficiently.
problem Lack of full value utilization in binary uplift modeling.
method Design a novel transformed outcome for binary target variables.
result Our new approach outperforms traditional methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
New algorithms for decision trees with noisy outcomes improve learning efficiency.
problem Learning with noisy outcomes in active learning.
method Approximation algorithms for optimal decision trees with persistent noise.
result Approximation algorithms provide nearly optimal performance guarantees.
fastHDMI improves neuroimaging variable selection in high-dimensional data.
problem Efficient variable screening in high-dimensional neuroimaging datasets.
method Three mutual information estimation methods implemented in fastHDMI.
result FFTKDE-based method superior for continuous nonlinear outcomes.
Mitigates bias in evaluations by considering known outcome information.
problem Bias in evaluations due to external factors like grades or acceptance.
method Formulates bias as a partial ordering, solves regularized optimization problem.
result The debiasing method improves evaluation accuracy by adapting regularization.
This paper significantly improves on, and finishes to validate, an approach proposed in previous research in which safety outcomes were predicted from attributes with machine learning. Like in the original study, we use Natural Language Processing (NLP) to extract fundamental attributes from raw incident reports and ma…
Study finds corruption negatively impacts firm performance.
problem The impact of corruption on firm performance is examined.
method Cross-sectional data analysis of a large international dataset.
result Corruption negatively affects corporate performance.
In many predictive decision-making scenarios, such as credit scoring and academic testing, a decision-maker must construct a model that accounts for agents' propensity to "game" the decision rule by changing their features so as to receive better decisions. Whereas the strategic classification literature has previously…
Develops conformalized prediction intervals for bounded continuous outcomes.
problem Predicting continuous outcomes within bounded ranges, especially when models are misspecified.
method Conformal prediction intervals based on transformation regression models, accounting for heteroscedasticity and asymmetry.
result Valid finite-sample coverage confirmed in simulations and real data applications.
Causal inference analysis is the estimation of the effects of actions on outcomes. In the context of healthcare data this means estimating the outcome of counter-factual treatments (i.e. including treatments that were not observed) on a patient's outcome. Compared to classic machine learning methods, evaluation and val…
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
In healthcare, patient risk stratification models are often learned using time-series data extracted from electronic health records. When extracting data for a clinical prediction task, several formulations exist, depending on how one chooses the time of prediction and the prediction horizon. In this paper, we show how…
A successful grasp requires careful balancing of the contact forces. Deducing whether a particular grasp will be successful from indirect measurements, such as vision, is therefore quite challenging, and direct sensing of contacts through touch sensing provides an appealing avenue toward more successful and consistent …
Adaptive prediction timing improves healthcare outcomes by predicting patient events at the right frequency.
problem Inconsistent prediction granularity in healthcare models.
method Introduces a novel approach using Bayesian recurrent models and a new aggregation method to adapt prediction frequency based on uncertainty.
result Adaptive prediction timing leads to improved predictive performance, especially in the critical first 12 hours of patient stay.