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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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306191121 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for outcome bridges

The paper reviews and extends calibration concepts for classification and regression.

problem Formalizing compatibility between probabilistic predictions and outcomes.
method Review and extension of existing calibration concepts, introduction of new concepts.
result Hierarchical relations between calibration concepts for various data types.

Unified framework for DRO using OT with constraints.

problem Handling ambiguity in likelihood ratios and outcomes.
method Unified framework leveraging optimal transport with conditional moment constraints.
result Unified approach enables adversarial perturbation of likelihood ratios and outcomes.

Develops conformalized prediction intervals for bounded continuous outcomes.

problem Predicting continuous outcomes within bounded ranges, especially when models are misspecified.
method Conformal prediction intervals based on transformation regression models, accounting for heteroscedasticity and asymmetry.
result Valid finite-sample coverage confirmed in simulations and real data applications.

Paper resolves the debate on process vs. outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.

problem Distinguishing between process and outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.
method Developed a technical tool (Change of Trajectory Measure Lemma) to show equivalence between outcome and process supervision under standard data coverage assumptions.
result Reinforcement learning through outcome supervision is statistically equivalent to process supervision, up to polynomial factors in horizon.

Study bridges GARCH and NN models for volatility forecasting.

problem Lack of interaction between GARCH and NN approaches for volatility forecasting.
method Established equivalence between GARCH and NN models, introduced GARCH-NN approach.
result GARCH-NN approach enhances volatility forecasting compared to standalone models.

SnapMMD forecasts cell differentiation outcomes from snapshot data.

problem Forecasting cell differentiation outcomes from limited snapshot data.
method SnapMMD learns dynamics by directly fitting the joint distribution of state measurements and observation time with MMD loss, allowing for unknown and state-dependent volatilities.
result SnapMMD delivers accurate forecasts and an R2-style statistic for diagnosing fit.

CENNSurv models cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.

problem Challenges in modeling cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
method CENNSurv, a novel deep learning approach that captures dynamic risk relationships from time-dependent data.
result CENNSurv reveals multi-year lagged and short-term behavioral shifts in survival outcomes.

New method combines strengths of two PCL approaches without density ratio estimation.

problem Estimating causal functions in Proxy Causal Learning with unobserved confounders and proxies.
method Kernel-based doubly robust estimators combining treatment and outcome bridges, density ratio-free.
result Outperforms existing methods on PCL benchmarks, including a prior doubly robust method.

Novel characterization of augmented balancing weights combining outcome and weighting models.

problem Improving estimation accuracy in machine learning models with balancing weights.
method Characterization of augmented balancing weights as linear models, extending to ridge and lasso regression.
result Equivalence and closed-form expressions for specific model choices, providing insights into performance.

Optimization algorithm CoCo improves causal inference from diverse data.

problem Identifying true causal relationships from data with spurious associations.
method CoCo optimizes for causal inference using environments with invariant causal relationships.
result CoCo provides more accurate causal estimates and predictions.

New model predicts drug effects across various cell types using causal imputation.

problem Predict drug effects across different cell types given limited data.
method Introduces a novel SCM-based model class with latent factor structure and uses Synthetic Interventions estimator.
result Method outperforms other matrix completion approaches in drug repurposing dataset.

We propose a method to learn causal response representations through direct effect analysis.

problem Uncovering direct causal effects in complex, multivariate settings.
method Our method bridges conditional independence testing with causal representation learning, formulating an optimisation problem to maximise evidence against conditional independence.
result The largest eigenvalue distribution can be bounded by an FF-distribution, providing testable conditional independence.

Study bridges welfare maximization and CATE estimation in policy learning.

problem Tackles the gap between empirical welfare maximization and conditional average treatment effect estimation in policy learning.
method Shows equivalence between EWM and least squares over reparameterized policy class, proposes regularization method.
result Both approaches are interchangeable under common conditions and share theoretical guarantees.

Study uses SGD to find near-optimal execution cost policies in dynamic markets.

problem Finding optimal execution cost policies in complex markets.
method Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) approach to derive near-optimal policies.
result SGD-based policies offer valuable insights and are implementable in volatile markets.

Spatial Deconfounder tackles interference and confounding in spatial data.

problem Interference and unmeasured spatial factors confound causal inference in spatial domains.
method Two-stage method using CVAE with spatial prior to reconstruct confounder, then estimate causal effects.
result Nonparametric identification of direct and spillover effects under weak assumptions.

Study optimizes health incentives to balance efficiency and fairness.

problem Designing health incentives to balance efficiency and fairness.
method Inverse behavioral optimization framework integrating QALY-based incentives and adaptive learning.
result Modern health systems operate near an efficiency-saturated frontier, with small fairness adjustments yielding diminishing returns.

New methods estimate causal effects through mediators, handling confounding without strict assumptions.

problem Estimating causal effects through mediators while accounting for unmeasured confounding.
method Developed four nonparametric identification strategies using proximal confounding bridge functions, efficient influence function, and quadruply robust estimator. Proposed proximal debiased machine learning approach for high-dimensional nuisance parameters.
result Achieved n\sqrt{n}-consistency and asymptotic normality for path-specific effect estimation.

The paper provides examples of keen weakly reducible bridge spheres for links in b-bridge position.

problem Characterizing and finding examples of keen weakly reducible bridge spheres.
method Analyzing bridge spheres and their properties in terms of compressing disks and width complex.
result Infinitely many examples of keen weakly reducible bridge spheres for links in b-bridge position.

Paper tackles robust batched bandits for heavy-tailed rewards.

problem Clinical trials and other applications with heavy-tailed rewards.
method Proposes robust batched bandit algorithms for heavy-tailed rewards in finite-arm and Lipschitz-continuous settings.
result Heavier-tailed rewards require fewer batches for near-optimal regret in the instance-independent regime and Lipschitz setting.

Suppose a knot in a 33-manifold is in nn-bridge position. We consider a reduction of the knot along a bridge disk DD and show that the result is an (n1)(n-1)-bridge position if and only if there is a bridge disk EE such that (D,E)(D, E) is a cancelling pair. We apply this to an unknot KK, in nn-bridge position with re…

2016-06-23abs ↗pdf ↗

This work shifts focus from prediction to intervention in social systems.

problem The limitations of focusing solely on prediction in automated decision systems.
method Shift from prediction-focused paradigm to intervention-oriented approach.
result A new perspective unifies statistical frameworks and tools for ADS design, implementation, and evaluation.

We show that if KK is a knot in S3S^3 and ΣΣ is a bridge sphere for KK with high distance and 2n2n punctures, the number of perturbations of KK required to interchange the two balls bounded by ΣΣ via an isotopy is nn. We also construct a knot with two different bridge spheres with 2n2n and 2n12n-1 bridges respecti…

2009-08-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper explores link and plat presentations, showing equivalence under bridge isotopy.

problem Relationship between links in bridge position and plat presentations.
method Established equivalence between Hilden double coset classes of plat presentations and bridge positions up to isotopy.
result Revealed equivalence of Hilden double coset classes for n-bridge unknot and torus knots in plat position.

RAGIC predicts stock intervals with risk considerations, improving prediction accuracy and coverage.

problem Limited success in predicting stock market outcomes due to stochastic nature and risk oversight.
method RAGIC uses a GAN with a risk module and temporal module to generate risk-sensitive stock intervals.
result RAGIC achieves a consistent 95% coverage with narrow interval widths, balancing accuracy and risk.

Unified model bridges mechanistic and non-mechanistic epidemic approaches.

problem Understanding the dynamics of epidemics with flexibility and interpretability.
method A mixture-based model representing time series as Gaussian mixtures, derived from a networked SIR framework.
result The model provides interpretable parameters and low prediction error, validating its use in understanding interventions.