A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improves test set performance and reduces out-of-sample disappointment for unstable models.
New method for estimating out-of-sample R² from gene expression data.
Understanding if classifiers generalize to out-of-sample datasets is a central problem in machine learning. Microscopy images provide a standardized way to measure the generalization capacity of image classifiers, as we can image the same classes of objects under increasingly divergent, but controlled factors of variat…
Let be a data set in , where is the training set and is the test one. Many unsupervised learning algorithms based on kernel methods have been developed to provide dimensionality reduction (DR) embedding for a given training set $Φ: \mathbf{X} \to \mat…
New framework for interpretable firm characteristics factors.
We study the profitability of optimal mean reversion trading strategies in the US equity market. Different from regular pair trading practice, we apply maximum likelihood method to construct the optimal static pairs trading portfolio that best fits the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and rigorously estimate the parameters.…
We propose a new method to evaluate GANs, namely EvalGAN. EvalGAN relies on a test set to directly measure the reconstruction quality in the original sample space (no auxiliary networks are necessary), and it also computes the (log)likelihood for the reconstructed samples in the test set. Further, EvalGAN is agnostic t…
EB improves asset pricing by mining large strategies without lookahead bias.
We identify and validate a model for PCR in high dimensions, improving prediction guarantees.
Several popular graph embedding techniques for representation learning and dimensionality reduction rely on performing computationally expensive eigendecompositions to derive a nonlinear transformation of the input data space. The resulting eigenvectors encode the embedding coordinates for the training samples only, an…
New test improves tree ensemble pruning for better model performance.
Enhances supervised visualization for unseen data using autoencoders and random forest.
The study evaluates financial risk using copulas and statistical tests.
A growing number of threats to Android phones creates challenges for malware detection. Manually labeling the samples into benign or different malicious families requires tremendous human efforts, while it is comparably easy and cheap to obtain a large amount of unlabeled APKs from various sources. Moreover, the fast-p…
We propose a Genetic Programming architecture for the generation of foreign exchange trading strategies. The system's principal features are the evolution of free-form strategies which do not rely on any prior models and the utilization of price series from multiple instruments as input data. This latter feature consti…
Proposes a new model to maximize out-of-sample Sharpe ratios by forecasting tangency portfolios.
We consider the multi-class classification problem when the training data and the out-of-sample test data may have different distributions and propose a method called BCOPS (balanced and conformal optimized prediction sets). BCOPS constructs a prediction set as a subset of class labels, possibly empty. It tries …
This study optimizes trading strategy parameters using walk-forward techniques and finds robust performance.
We apply our statistically deterministic machine learning/clustering algorithm *K-means (recently developed in https://ssrn.com/abstract=2908286) to 10,656 published exome samples for 32 cancer types. A majority of cancer types exhibit mutation clustering structure. Our results are in-sample stable. They are also out-o…
Study finds traditional technical indicators underperform in high-frequency trading, suggesting risk management over prediction.
The paper predicts and explains the decay of stock anomaly performance over time.
The paper develops diverse risk models for US stock portfolios.
A new method subsamples data without weights to improve model performance.
A new Hawkes process model captures order book dynamics in high-frequency trading.
High-performing equity factor with Sharpe ratio above 13 out-of-sample.
We introduce an exploratory study on Mutation Validation (MV), a model validation method using mutated training labels for supervised learning. MV mutates training data labels, retrains the model against the mutated data, then uses the metamorphic relation that captures the consequent training performance changes to as…
Study uses vine copulas to optimize financial portfolios during and after the financial crisis.
Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and applicable to multi-predictor…
Forecast-to-fill strategy generates durable alpha in gold futures.
An ensemble method enhances cryptocurrency trading strategies using deep reinforcement learning.
ASRI index detects crypto market risks with high precision and lead time.
Nonlinear kernels can be approximated using finite-dimensional feature maps for efficient risk minimization. Due to the inherent trade-off between the dimension of the (mapped) feature space and the approximation accuracy, the key problem is to identify promising (explicit) features leading to a satisfactory out-of-sam…
We demonstrate that future market correlation structure can be predicted with high out-of-sample accuracy using a multiplex network approach that combines information from social media and financial data. Market structure is measured by quantifying the co-movement of asset prices returns, while social structure is meas…
In the past decade many researchers have proposed new optimal portfolio selection strategies to show that sophisticated diversification can outperform the naïve 1/N strategy in out-of-sample benchmarks. Providing an updated review of these models since DeMiguel et al. (2009b), I test sixteen strategies across six empir…
Paper analyzes high-dimensional portfolio risks and finds empirical out-of-sample relative loss is more reliable.
A new framework for time series forecasting that adapts to varying patterns.
Extracts credit-relevant information from earnings calls.
We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability (``prediction days''), in which agents collectively take predetermined courses of action, transiently decoupled from past history. We demonstrate and test it out-of-sample on synthetic minority and majority game…
New insights into ridge regression with correlated data, improving risk prediction.
This paper proposes an out-of-sample extension framework for a global manifold learning algorithm (Isomap) that uses temporal information in out-of-sample points in order to make the embedding more robust to noise and artifacts. Given a set of noise-free training data and its embedding, the proposed framework extends t…
We consider the problem of vertex classification for graphs constructed from the latent position model. It was shown previously that the approach of embedding the graphs into some Euclidean space followed by classification in that space can yields a universally consistent vertex classifier. However, a major technical d…
Graph embeddings, a class of dimensionality reduction techniques designed for relational data, have proven useful in exploring and modeling network structure. Most dimensionality reduction methods allow out-of-sample extensions, by which an embedding can be applied to observations not present in the training set. Appli…
In this paper we solve the discrete time mean-variance hedging problem when asset returns follow a multivariate autoregressive hidden Markov model. Time dependent volatility and serial dependence are well established properties of financial time series and our model covers both. To illustrate the relevance of our propo…
CASTLE learns causal DAG to improve model generalization.
Paper introduces DOO models to outperform SAA out-of-sample.
The study examines how posterior drift affects forecasting accuracy in overparametrized models, particularly in financial markets.
Many popular dimensionality reduction procedures have out-of-sample extensions, which allow a practitioner to apply a learned embedding to observations not seen in the initial training sample. In this work, we consider the problem of obtaining an out-of-sample extension for the adjacency spectral embedding, a procedure…
Automates selection and visualization of model responses in various directions.