arXiv research

New method for estimating out-of-sample R² from gene expression data.

This paper proposes an out-of-sample extension framework for a global manifold learning algorithm (Isomap) that uses temporal information in out-of-sample points in order to make the embedding more robust to noise and artifacts. Given a set of noise-free training data and its embedding, the proposed framework extends t…

Dimensionality reduction methods are very common in the field of high dimensional data analysis. Typically, algorithms for dimensionality reduction are computationally expensive. Therefore, their applications for the analysis of massive amounts of data are impractical. For example, repeated computations due to accumula…

Paper introduces DOO models to outperform SAA out-of-sample.

OTSL improves structure learning accuracy with out-of-sample and resampling strategies.

Optimizes decisions without knowing the true distribution using historical data.

Paper proposes a diagnostic tool for evaluating model performance out-of-sample.

Under the framework of spectral clustering, the key of subspace clustering is building a similarity graph which describes the neighborhood relations among data points. Some recent works build the graph using sparse, low-rank, and $\ell_2$-norm-based representation, and have achieved state-of-the-art performance. Howeve…

Optimal data-driven formulations are found for learning and decision-making with historical data.

Paper presents a new way to analyze machine learning generalization without probabilistic assumptions.

Graph embeddings, a class of dimensionality reduction techniques designed for relational data, have proven useful in exploring and modeling network structure. Most dimensionality reduction methods allow out-of-sample extensions, by which an embedding can be applied to observations not present in the training set. Appli…

The paper uses machine learning to forecast macroeconomic outcomes with high-dimensional data.

Diffusion maps are a nonlinear manifold learning technique based on harmonic analysis of a diffusion process over the data. Out-of-sample extensions with computational complexity $\mathcal{O}(N)$, where $N$ is the number of points comprising the manifold, frustrate applications to online learning applications requiring…

Enhances supervised visualization for unseen data using autoencoders and random forest.

Validates policies using past observational data with guarantees about out-of-sample performance.

Paper develops a method to predict spatial point processes with guarantees.

Study the impact of overfitting on linear predictive models' performance.

New framework for learning policies that converge in out-of-sample regions.

We propose a Genetic Programming architecture for the generation of foreign exchange trading strategies. The system's principal features are the evolution of free-form strategies which do not rely on any prior models and the utilization of price series from multiple instruments as input data. This latter feature consti…

Several popular graph embedding techniques for representation learning and dimensionality reduction rely on performing computationally expensive eigendecompositions to derive a nonlinear transformation of the input data space. The resulting eigenvectors encode the embedding coordinates for the training samples only, an…

Proposes a new model to maximize out-of-sample Sharpe ratios by forecasting tangency portfolios.

Understanding if classifiers generalize to out-of-sample datasets is a central problem in machine learning. Microscopy images provide a standardized way to measure the generalization capacity of image classifiers, as we can image the same classes of objects under increasingly divergent, but controlled factors of variat…

Non-linear manifold learning enables high-dimensional data analysis, but requires out-of-sample-extension methods to process new data points. In this paper, we propose a manifold learning algorithm based on deep learning to create an encoder, which maps a high-dimensional dataset and its low-dimensional embedding, and …

Paper analyzes high-dimensional portfolio risks and finds empirical out-of-sample relative loss is more reliable.

Let $X=\mathbf{X}\cup\mathbf{Z}$ be a data set in $\mathbb{R}^D$, where $\mathbf{X}$ is the training set and $\mathbf{Z}$ is the test one. Many unsupervised learning algorithms based on kernel methods have been developed to provide dimensionality reduction (DR) embedding for a given training set $Φ: \mathbf{X} \to \mat…

We consider the multi-class classification problem when the training data and the out-of-sample test data may have different distributions and propose a method called BCOPS (balanced and conformal optimized prediction sets). BCOPS constructs a prediction set $C(x)$ as a subset of class labels, possibly empty. It tries …

RandALO speeds up risk estimation for large datasets.

We consider the problem of vertex classification for graphs constructed from the latent position model. It was shown previously that the approach of embedding the graphs into some Euclidean space followed by classification in that space can yields a universally consistent vertex classifier. However, a major technical d…

The paper analyzes LOCV for high-dimensional risk estimation, proving error bounds.

EB improves asset pricing by mining large strategies without lookahead bias.

Two strategies for embedding new data points from proximity data are explored.

Estimates error for robust M-estimators with convex penalties.

We address the problem of prescribing an optimal decision in a framework where the cost function depends on uncertain problem parameters that need to be learned from data. Earlier work proposed prescriptive formulations based on supervised machine learning methods. These prescriptive methods can factor in contextual in…

We study the out-of-sample properties of robust empirical optimization problems with smooth $φ$-divergence penalties and smooth concave objective functions, and develop a theory for data-driven calibration of the non-negative "robustness parameter" $δ$ that controls the size of the deviations from the nominal model. Bu…

Many popular dimensionality reduction procedures have out-of-sample extensions, which allow a practitioner to apply a learned embedding to observations not seen in the initial training sample. In this work, we consider the problem of obtaining an out-of-sample extension for the adjacency spectral embedding, a procedure…

High-dimensional big data appears in many research fields such as image recognition, biology and collaborative filtering. Often, the exploration of such data by classic algorithms is encountered with difficulties due to `curse of dimensionality' phenomenon. Therefore, dimensionality reduction methods are applied to the…

Study improves prediction accuracy and uncertainty for mobile sensor data using randomized neural networks.

Endogenous randomness emerges from adversarial market learning.

Dimensionality reduction is a topic of recent interest. In this paper, we present the classification constrained dimensionality reduction (CCDR) algorithm to account for label information. The algorithm can account for multiple classes as well as the semi-supervised setting. We present an out-of-sample expressions for …

We introduce an exploratory study on Mutation Validation (MV), a model validation method using mutated training labels for supervised learning. MV mutates training data labels, retrains the model against the mutated data, then uses the metamorphic relation that captures the consequent training performance changes to as…

We identify and validate a model for PCR in high dimensions, improving prediction guarantees.

Bayesian method predicts future network configurations from past snapshots.

When the in-sample Sharpe ratio is obtained by optimizing over a k-dimensional parameter space, it is a biased estimator for what can be expected on unseen data (out-of-sample). We derive (1) an unbiased estimator adjusting for both sources of bias: noise fit and estimation error. We then show (2) how to use the adjust…

High-performing equity factor with Sharpe ratio above 13 out-of-sample.

Study identifies key ESG variables for assessing financial risk.

Bayesian neural networks show good correlation between out-of-sample performance and Bayesian evidence.

Improves test set performance and reduces out-of-sample disappointment for unstable models.

Dimensionality reduction methods, also known as projections, are frequently used for exploring multidimensional data in machine learning, data science, and information visualization. Among these, t-SNE and its variants have become very popular for their ability to visually separate distinct data clusters. However, such…