A fast model estimates future prices from orderbook data.
problem Estimating future prices from orderbook data.
method Hyperdimensional vector Tsetlin machine framework for fast estimation.
result Demonstrated robust estimate of future prices.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “orderbook dynamics”
OrderFusion: Encoding Orderbook for End-to-End Probabilistic Intraday Electricity Price Forecastingq-fin.CP
New method learns interaction-aware orderbook representation for better intraday electricity price forecasting.
problem Challenges in probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting due to dynamic orderbook microstructure.
method OrderFusion: an end-to-end and parameter-efficient probabilistic forecasting model that learns interaction-aware representation of buy-sell dynamics.
result Consistent improvements over conventional baselines in probabilistic forecasting of CID price indices.
The paper explores features from orderbooks to improve intraday electricity price forecasting.
problem Improving probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices.
method Extracted 384 features from orderbooks, selected powerful features, and benchmarked models across two countries and product types.
result Revealed an asymmetric generalization phenomenon in electricity price forecasting models.
We identify and analyze statistical regularities and irregularities in the recent order flow of different NASDAQ stocks, focusing on the positions where orders are placed in the orderbook. This includes limit orders being placed outside of the spread, inside the spread and (effective) market orders. We find that limit …
Deep learning predicts Bitcoin spot price movements from order books.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency spot price movements from order book data.
method Temporal CNNs trained on 2-second prediction time horizon.
result 71% walk-forward accuracy on coinbase data.
Neural nets analyze crypto markets for multi-timeframe trading.
problem High-frequency trading in cryptocurrency markets.
method Multi-timeframe trend analysis and high-frequency direction prediction networks.
result Positive risk-adjusted returns through machine learning.
In this paper we investigate the endogenous information contained in four liquidity variables at a five minutes time scale on equity markets around the world: the traded volume, the bid-ask spread, the volatility and the volume at first limits of the orderbook. In the spirit of Granger causality, we measure the level o…
ByteGen models LOB dynamics without tokenization, achieving realistic market metrics.
problem Modeling high-frequency LOB dynamics in finance.
method Autoregressive next-byte prediction on packed binary data, using H-Net architecture.
result Successfully reproduces stylized facts of financial markets.
Optimal trading is a recent field of research which was initiated by Almgren, Chriss, Bertsimas and Lo in the late 90's. Its main application is slicing large trading orders, in the interest of minimizing trading costs and potential perturbations of price dynamics due to liquidity shocks. The initial optimization frame…
dYdX updates liquidity provider incentives to enhance trading efficiency.
problem Incentivizing liquidity providers to maintain efficient market structures.
method Analyzed various metrics (makerVolume, depths, spreads) and used historical trades to update the LP Incentives Programme.
result Updated the LP Incentives Programme to encourage more active and efficient liquidity.
PredictionMarketBench benchmarks trading agents on prediction markets.
problem Evaluating trading agents on prediction markets with realistic conditions.
method Deterministic replay of historical data, execution-realistic simulator, agent interface.
result Fee-aware algorithmic strategies outperform naive agents in volatile episodes.
The paper proposes a time-dependent Markov model for a limit order book.
problem Understanding the convergence of a limit order book to a more complex diffusion.
method A simple time-dependent Markov model is proposed, describing the arrival of different orders.
result Empirical studies verify the validity of the modeling assumptions for certain stocks.
Study examines Bitcoin market fragmentation and price formation, revealing market leader-lagger dynamics and trading strategies.
problem Understanding price formation in fragmented Bitcoin markets at sub-second time scales.
method Utilized granular orderbook and trades data, constructed features, and trained linear models to explain market returns.
result Fee regime determines market leadership and profitability of taker strategies, maker strategies tested in real-world trading.
Model simulates Perpetual Futures market with agent behavior.
problem Reproduce Perpetual Futures market dynamics.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous agents trading via a central limit order book.
result Simulation accurately reproduces Perpetual Futures price pegging to Spot price.
Modeling liquidity risk in financial markets using agent-based simulation.
problem Understanding and quantifying the costs of buying or selling assets in financial markets.
method Agent-based modeling (ABM) with Monte Carlo simulations to calculate transaction costs and price impacts.
result Emergent price impacts without oversimplification, providing a realistic framework for liquidity risk.
Study on 2-valued dynamics on complex plane, showing some dynamics can't be group actions.
problem Whether 2-valued dynamics can be defined by the action of a 2-valued group.
method Construction of examples of dynamics that are or are not group actions.
result Some 2-valued dynamics on complex plane cannot be defined by the action of a 2-valued group.
The paper studies dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their representation.
problem Representing dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
method Representation theorems for dynamic monetary and star-shaped risk measures.
result Dynamic star-shaped risk measures can be represented as the lower envelope of a family of dynamic convex risk measures.
Study circles to understand dynamics and rigidity in homogeneous spaces.
problem Understanding dynamics and rigidity in infinite-volume homogeneous spaces.
method Addressing four questions about circle packings.
result Highlighting the interplay between dynamics, geometry, and rigidity.
A Riemmanian foliated dynamical system of 3-dimension is a closed Riemannian 3-manifold with additional structures: foliation, dynamical system. In the context of arithmetic topology, it is a geometric/analytic analogue of an arithmetic scheme with a conjectural dynamical system suggested by C. De…
Mechanical Hamiltonian systems with respect to linear Poisson structures and Jacobi-Reeb dynamicsmath.DG
Paper connects dynamics of mechanical systems to Reeb dynamics.
problem Understanding dynamics in mechanical systems with Poisson structures.
method Using Jacobi bundle metrics and linear Poisson structures.
result Extends classical results on Reeb dynamics to mechanical systems.
Two heuristics solve dynamic multiple travelling salesmen problems.
problem Dynamic routing with unknown customers.
method Balanced dynamic closest vehicle heuristic and balanced dynamic assignment vehicle heuristic.
result Continuous approximation models for strategic dynamic routing.
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
DOODL learns shared spectral dynamics across related dynamical systems.
problem Learning independent dynamical operators for each system limits discovery of shared structure.
method DOODL learns a dictionary of characteristic spectral dynamics on a manifold of related systems.
result DOODL achieves errors one to two orders of magnitude lower than independent operator estimation methods.
We propose a new class of mappings, called Dynamic Limit Growth Indices, that are designed to measure the long-run performance of a financial portfolio in discrete time setup. We study various important properties for this new class of measures, and in particular, we provide necessary and sufficient condition for a Dyn…
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for determining dynamic ask and bid prices of derivatives using the theory of dynamic coherent acceptability indices in discrete time. We prove a version of the First Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing using the dynamic coherent risk measures. We introduce the dynamic …
Dynamical-VAE learns causal dynamics from POMDPs using future information.
problem Learning accurate state representations from partial observations in POMDPs.
method Dynamical Variational Auto-Encoder (DVAE) with hindsight framework.
result DVAE uncovers causal graph more effectively than history-based methods.
Most real world phenomena such as sunlight distribution under a forest canopy, minerals concentration, stock valuation, exhibit nonstationary dynamics i.e. phenomenon variation changes depending on the locality. Nonstationary dynamics pose both theoretical and practical challenges to statistical machine learning algori…
Precise Dynamics of Diagonal Linear Networks: A Unifying Analysis by Dynamical Mean-Field Theorystat.ML
Unified analysis of DLNs using DMFT reveals dynamics of loss convergence and generalization trade-offs.
problem Understanding the overall dynamics of diagonal linear networks (DLNs) in neural network training.
method Dynamical Mean-Field Theory (DMFT) applied to DLNs.
result Derives low-dimensional effective process capturing high-dimensional gradient flow dynamics.
Decomposed Linear Dynamical Systems (dLDS) for learning the latent components of neural dynamicsstat.ML
dLDS models neural dynamics as sparse combinations of simpler components.
problem Understanding complex neural dynamics at a population level.
method Proposes a decomposed dynamical system model trained through dictionary learning.
result Model efficiently captures and demix diverse neural dynamics.
Reinforcement learning would enjoy better success on real-world problems if domain knowledge could be imparted to the algorithm by the modelers. Most problems have both hidden state and unknown dynamics. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) allow for the modeling of both. Unfortunately, they do not p…
We consider trivializations of second iterated bundles of a Lie group that preserve lifted group structures. With such a trivialization, we elaborate Hamiltonian dynamics on cotangent, Lagrangian dynamics on tangent bundles and, both Hamiltonian and Lagrangian dynamics on Tulczyjew's symplectic space which is tangent o…
Framework for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic processes.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in dynamic stochastic processes.
method Define dynamic uncertainty sets and dynamic robust risk measures.
result Dynamic robust risk measures are time-consistent under specific uncertainty sets.
This survey clarifies dynamic network terminology and reviews GNN models for dynamic networks.
problem Ambiguity in dynamic network terminology and lack of GNN models for dynamic networks.
method Established consistent terminology and notation for dynamic networks, reviewed GNN models.
result Comprehensive survey of dynamic graph neural network models.
Learning non-stationary Langevin dynamics from stochastic observations of latent trajectoriesstat.ML
Framework infers Langevin dynamics from stochastic observations of latent systems.
problem Inferring non-stationary Langevin dynamics from indirect stochastic observations.
method Non-parametric framework explicitly modeling stochastic observation process and non-stationary latent dynamics.
result Correct inference of non-stationary dynamics requires accounting for non-equilibrium states and observation duration.
The paper introduces a dynamic MVP model using high-frequency financial data.
problem Capturing the dynamics of minimum variance portfolio weights in financial markets.
method Imposes autoregressive structure on MVP processes and uses CLIME and LASSO for estimation.
result Proposes DR-MVP model with established asymptotic properties.
The paper extends Vlasov kinetic theory to time-dependent dynamics using cosymplectic and cocontact manifolds.
problem Extending Vlasov kinetic theory to time-dependent dynamics.
method Introducing geometric kinetic theories within cosymplectic and cocontact manifolds.
result Alternative realizations of cosymplectic and cocontact kinetic theories linked via Poisson/momentum maps.
NDS learns dynamical models with prior knowledge, improving accuracy and efficiency.
problem Learning accurate dynamical models with limited data and varying dynamics.
method Neural Dynamical Systems (NDS) integrates prior knowledge in ODEs with neural networks to estimate parameters and predict states.
result NDS achieves higher accuracy and uses fewer samples compared to other methods.
New method learns population dynamics from snapshots, outperforming existing models.
problem Capturing periodic and other dynamical properties of population dynamics.
method Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics (WLM) for learning second-order dynamics from observed marginals.
result WLM outperforms existing methods across various dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.
Paper uses Chebyshev Tensors for accurate dynamic sensitivities and ISDA SIMM computation.
problem Computing dynamic sensitivities and initial margin for financial instruments.
method Uses Chebyshev Tensors in Monte Carlo simulations to compute dynamic sensitivities and ISDA SIMM.
result High accuracy and computational gains for FX swaps and Spread Options.
Model dynamic customer sensitivities across categories.
problem Dynamic heterogeneity in customer sensitivities to marketing elements.
method Hierarchical dynamic factor model with Bayesian nonparametric Gaussian processes.
result Dynamic heterogeneity can be explained by a few global trends.
Survey on computational models in dynamical systems, including new universality concepts.
problem Understanding the relationship between computational models and dynamical systems.
method Review of recent works on Turing universality, Topological Kleene Field Theories, and dynamical bordisms.
result Introduction of new perspectives on computability through dynamical systems.
FNSDA adapts to new dynamics via Fourier space adaptation.
problem Generalizing to unseen dynamical systems with limited data.
method Automatic partitioning of known environments in Fourier modes and adaptation of specific modes for new environments.
result FNSDA achieves superior or competitive generalization performance with reduced parameter cost.
Study on geometry and dynamics of transverse subgroups.
problem Understanding the geometry and dynamics of transverse subgroups.
method Survey of recent research on semi-simple Lie groups.
result Recent findings on transverse subgroups of semi-simple Lie groups.
Dynamic risk assessment method for WUI fires improves upon static frameworks.
problem Static risk assessment methods fail to capture dynamic changes in WUI fire risks.
method Dynamic evaluation matrix, grey incidence analysis, optimization model.
result The proposed method effectively captures dynamic risk evolution patterns.
Develops a method to model neural dynamics with flexible yet interpretable latent states.
problem Capturing complex nonlinear dynamics in neural time series while maintaining interpretability.
method Gaussian Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (gpSLDS) that balances expressiveness and interpretability.
result Favorable performance in comparison to rSLDS on synthetic and real neuroscience data.
SINDy-PI robustly identifies implicit dynamics from noisy data.
problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamics from noisy data.
method Parallel, implicit SINDy algorithm with multiple optimization algorithms and model selection.
result Significantly more noise robust than previous SINDy approaches.
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with probabilistic understanding.
method Combines deep learning and probabilistic modeling, using KL annealing and normalizing flows.
result Captures latent dynamics in sequential datasets with improved convergence and flexibility.
Method learns dynamics of slow variables from stochastic data.
problem Modeling unknown multiscale stochastic systems with limited data.
method Data-driven approach to learn effective dynamics from bursts of observation data.
result Generative model accurately captures effective dynamics of slow variables.