Improved stock price prediction model using generalized order flow imbalance.
problem Improving stock price prediction models using new order flow imbalance indicators.
method Proposed a generalized order flow imbalance construction method and applied it to CSI 500 stocks.
result Generalized Stationarized Order Flow Imbalance (log-GOFI) shows significant improvement in explaining stock price changes.
We investigate the probability distribution of order imbalance calculated from the order flow data of 43 Chinese stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Two definitions of order imbalance are considered based on the order number and the order size. We find that the order imbalance distributions of individual stoc…
Modeling price dynamics in response to order flow imbalance in Chinese futures markets.
problem Understanding price dynamics in markets with order flow imbalance.
method Modeling order flow imbalance as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with memory and mean-reverting characteristics.
result Horizon-dependent heterogeneity in conventional metrics' interaction with order flow imbalance.
We study the price impact of order book events - limit orders, market orders and cancelations - using the NYSE TAQ data for 50 U.S. stocks. We show that, over short time intervals, price changes are mainly driven by the order flow imbalance, defined as the imbalance between supply and demand at the best bid and ask pri…
New methods improve evaluation of models under varying class imbalance.
problem Optimistic evaluation metrics lead to incorrect conclusions.
method Methods focusing on evaluation under non-constant class imbalance.
result Order of classifiers can change with class imbalance rate.
In this comment we discuss the problem of reconciling the linear efficiency of price returns with the long-memory of supply and demand. We present new evidence that shows that efficiency is maintained by a liquidity imbalance that co-moves with the imbalance of buyer vs. seller initiated transactions. For example, duri…
This paper improves robot traders' market impact sensitivity.
problem Market impact in automated trading systems.
method Critiqued existing methods, introduced MLOFI, and demonstrated new algorithms.
result New imbalance-sensitive trader-agents exhibit market impact effects.
The paper introduces a new price model based on entropy that better fits high-frequency market data.
problem Understanding fair prices in high-frequency markets with bid-ask imbalance.
method A parametrized family of prices derived from the Maximum Entropy Principle, minimizing bias given volume imbalance.
result The model can generate higher kurtosis and heavy-tailed distributions compared to standard models.
This paper uses Hawkes processes to forecast high-frequency order flow imbalance.
problem Forecasting the asymmetry in high-frequency order flow events.
method Hawkes processes accounting for lagged dependence between bid and offer events.
result Hawkes process with a Sum of Exponential's kernel gives the best forecast of order flow imbalance.
Analyzes how class imbalance and heterogeneity affect diffusion model learning dynamics.
problem Understanding how class imbalance and heterogeneity impact the learning dynamics of diffusion models.
method Developed a high-dimensional analytical framework to study class-dependent learning in score-based diffusion models.
result Class variance is the primary determinant of learning order, favoring higher-variance classes; centroid geometry plays a secondary role.
New framework explains market volatility and metaorder impact.
problem Reconciling contradictory observations in market microstructure.
method Introducing a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes, and durations.
result Price diffusion is ensured by long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders.
The paper classifies trades into types based on proximity and measures their impact on stock prices.
problem Understanding the impact of high-frequency trades on stock prices and their predictability.
method Classifies trades into five types based on proximity, measures conditional order imbalance (COI), and develops trading strategies.
result Strong positive correlations between contemporaneous returns and COIs, and positive associations with future returns for isolated trades.
We examine optimal execution models that take into account both market microstructure impact and informational costs. Informational footprint is related to order flow and is represented by the trader's influence on the flow imbalance process, while microstructure influence is captured by instantaneous price impact. We …
Study shows how macroeconomic news affects intraday price and order flow dynamics.
problem Understanding how macroeconomic news impacts intraday price and order flow dynamics.
method Structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity, estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute interval.
result Macroeconomic news announcements reshape price-flow dynamics, with significant impacts on price and flow impacts at the one-second horizon.
Study shows integrating OFI from multiple levels improves price impact explanation but not forecasting.
problem Explaining and forecasting price movements in equity markets using OFI.
method Systematic approach to combine OFIs from multiple levels into an integrated variable, testing multi-asset models with and without cross-impact terms.
result Lagged cross-asset OFIs improve future return forecasting but not contemporaneous price impact.
We study the multi-level order-flow imbalance (MLOFI), which is a vector quantity that measures the net flow of buy and sell orders at different price levels in a limit order book (LOB). Using a recent, high-quality data set for 6 liquid stocks on Nasdaq, we fit a simple, linear relationship between MLOFI and the conte…
We investigate the behavior of limit order books on the meso-scale motivated by order execution scheduling algorithms. To do so we carry out empirical analysis of the order flows from market and limit order submissions, aggregated from tick-by-tick data via volume-based bucketing, as well as various LOB depth and shape…
Study on heavy tails in closing auction returns, explaining imbalance through limit order submission.
problem Understanding heavy tails in closing auction return distributions.
method Used the stochastic call auction model of Derksen et al. (2020a) to derive and verify a relation between tail exponents.
result Large closing price fluctuations are not caused by large market orders, but by imbalance in limit orders.
Study shows price impact increases with order-flow imbalance, using machine learning.
problem Understanding price impact in financial markets.
method Empirical investigation using Kyle's model and machine learning.
result Machine learning models can predict market impact more accurately than traditional methods.
Study uses agent-based simulation to analyze impact of OBI strategy on financial markets.
problem Improving execution in markets with supply-demand imbalance.
method Built an execution algorithm that accounts for OBI, tested it in artificial markets.
result OBI strategy can improve execution, especially in volatile markets.
ClusterLOB clusters market events to identify different trading behaviors.
problem Understanding market microstructure and participant behavior in financial markets.
method ClusterLOB uses K-means++ algorithm to cluster market events based on six time-dependent features.
result ClusterLOB identifies three distinct trading behaviors: directional, opportunistic, and market-making participants.
APC overcomes missing data and class imbalance in time series data.
problem Missing data and class imbalance in time series data.
method Self-supervised learning with Autoregressive Predictive Coding (APC).
result APC improves classification performance on real-world medical datasets.
Paper introduces a new performance metric for class imbalance datasets.
problem Challenges in selecting and comparing models for imbalanced datasets.
method Proposes a new performance measure based on the harmonic mean of Recall and Selectivity normalized in class labels.
result The proposed measure is less sensitive to changes in the majority class and more sensitive to changes in the minority class.
We first investigate the evolution of opening and closing auctions volumes of US equities along the years. We then report dynamical properties of pre-auction periods: the indicative match price is strongly mean-reverting because the imbalance is; the final auction price reacts to a single auction order placement or can…
We examine the dynamics of the bid and ask queues of a limit order book and their relationship with the intensity of trade arrivals. In particular, we study the probability of price movements and trade arrivals as a function of the quote imbalance at the top of the limit order book. We propose a stochastic model in an …
Study shows neural collapse is invariant to class imbalances under certain conditions.
problem Neural collapse properties are only valid for balanced data.
method Adopted UFM and introduced SELI for invariant characterization.
result Embeddings and classifiers always interpolate a simplex-encoded label matrix regardless of class imbalances.
A fast model estimates future prices from orderbook data.
problem Estimating future prices from orderbook data.
method Hyperdimensional vector Tsetlin machine framework for fast estimation.
result Demonstrated robust estimate of future prices.
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control framework to provide details on how one can exploit his knowledge on liquidity imbala…
We investigate whether the bid/ask queue imbalance in a limit order book (LOB) provides significant predictive power for the direction of the next mid-price movement. We consider this question both in the context of a simple binary classifier, which seeks to predict the direction of the next mid-price movement, and a p…
Study reveals optimal price prediction through volume imbalance analysis.
problem Understanding the relationship between prices and volume imbalance in high-frequency trading.
method Developed a market-making model to analyze price-imbalance connection and solve optimization problems.
result Optimal quoting of predictive imbalance is confirmed, useful for financial regulation.
Market makers face a trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns, requiring contrarian strategies.
problem Navigating the trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns in market making.
method Analysis of live trading data from Binance Bitcoin perpetual.
result A negative correlation between maker fill likelihood and post-fill returns, necessitating contrarian strategies.
One popular approach to model the limit order books dynamics of the best bid and ask at level-1 is to use the reduced-form diffusion approximations. It is well known that the biggest contributing factor to the price movement is the imbalance of the best bid and ask. We investigate the data of the level-1 limit order bo…
Class imbalance is an intrinsic characteristic of multi-label data. Most of the labels in multi-label data sets are associated with a small number of training examples, much smaller compared to the size of the data set. Class imbalance poses a key challenge that plagues most multi-label learning methods. Ensemble of Cl…
Study validates low latency's impact on trading profits.
problem Determining the impact of low latency on trading profits.
method Agent-based simulation of trading strategies in a controlled environment.
result Latency inversely affects trading profits; latency rank is key.
Hybrid model combines VAR and neural network for OFI prediction.
problem Accurate prediction of Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) in high frequency trading.
method Combines Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and a simple feedforward neural network (FNN).
result Hybrid model achieves superior predictive accuracy compared to standalone models.
This paper tackles label-efficient evaluation in extreme class imbalance.
problem Challenges in obtaining a sufficient sample for accurate evaluation in tasks with extreme class imbalance.
method Develops a framework for online evaluation based on adaptive importance sampling.
result Establishes strong consistency and a central limit theorem for performance estimates.
Combines deep learning and reinforcement learning for profitable trading.
problem Analytical methods fail to fully capture market dynamics.
method Deep learning on order books combined with reinforcement learning.
result Successful trading models for multiple financial instruments.
Deep learning shows ETF imbalances are more informative than market imbalances.
problem Determining causality between ETF and market imbalances.
method Deep learning econometric methodology applied to stock and ETF transactions.
result ETF imbalance messages are more informative than market imbalance messages.
This paper examines biases in foundation models under long-tailed data and proposes a method to mitigate parameter imbalance.
problem The bias introduced by imbalanced training data in foundation models affects long-tailed downstream tasks.
method The paper examines parameter imbalance and data imbalance, proposing a backdoor adjustment method to mitigate parameter imbalance.
result An average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, o…
Recent studies have shown that imbalance ratio is not the only cause of the performance loss of a classifier in imbalanced data classification. In fact, other data factors, such as small disjuncts, noises and overlapping, also play the roles in tandem with imbalance ratio, which makes the problem difficult. Thus far, t…
Bayesian framework improves minority class performance in class-imbalanced data.
problem Class imbalance in predictive toxicology models.
method Weighted likelihood approach modifying likelihood function weights inversely proportional to class proportions.
result Improves balanced accuracy and sensitivity for minority class (toxic compounds).
This chapter tackles class imbalance in datasets to promote data democracy.
problem Class imbalance in datasets leading to biased decisions and policies.
method Statistical measures and data-level methods (oversampling, undersampling, etc.) applied to a real dataset.
result Popular data-level methods improve performance in handling class imbalance.
We analyze anomaly detection class imbalance using a solvable model.
problem Class imbalance hampers anomaly detection performance.
method We use an exact solution of the teacher-student perceptron model through replica theory.
result Optimal train imbalance is often different from 50%, influenced by intrinsic imbalance and data abundance.
Theoretical and empirical taxonomy of imbalance in binary classification.
problem Class imbalance degrades binary classification performance.
method Proposed a principled framework based on three scales: imbalance coefficient, sample-dimension ratio, and intrinsic separability. Derived closed-form Bayes errors and analyzed degradation across models.
result The triplet (η, κ, Δ) provides a model-agnostic explanation of imbalance-induced deterioration.
Proposes methods to improve multi-label learning by addressing local label imbalance.
problem Local label imbalance within minority class examples degrades multi-label learning performance.
method Introduces a measure to assess local label imbalance and two sampling approaches (MLSOL, MLUL) to address it.
result Experimental results show MLSOL and MLUL improve performance on multi-label datasets.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
Online class imbalance learning constitutes a new problem and an emerging research topic that focusses on the challenges of online learning under class imbalance and concept drift. Class imbalance deals with data streams that have very skewed distributions while concept drift deals with changes in the class imbalance s…