A novel framework extracts essential factors from order flow data for high-frequency trading.
problem Challenges in extracting and utilizing order flow data due to its large volume and limitations of traditional techniques.
method Proposes a Context Encoder and Factor Extractor for unsupervised learning of important signals from order flow data.
result Extracts superior factors from order flow data, improving stock trend prediction and order execution tasks.
This research tackles ordering latent variables in normalizing flows.
problem Learning low-dimensional, meaningful representations in latent space.
method Nested dropout normalizing flows with ordered latent variables.
result A trade-off exists between flow likelihood and ordering quality.
Improved stock price prediction model using generalized order flow imbalance.
problem Improving stock price prediction models using new order flow imbalance indicators.
method Proposed a generalized order flow imbalance construction method and applied it to CSI 500 stocks.
result Generalized Stationarized Order Flow Imbalance (log-GOFI) shows significant improvement in explaining stock price changes.
MarketGPT models financial time series with realistic order flow data.
problem Creating accurate financial market simulations.
method Generative pre-trained transformer (GPT) for long sequence generation.
result Model reproduces key features of real financial markets and stylized facts.
The paper predicts Bitcoin volatility using order flow images.
problem Predicting short-term volatility of Bitcoin prices.
method Transformed order flow data into images, trained CNN and ResNet models.
result Order flow representation with CNN achieves best performance, with RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1.
Analyzes Willmore flow for graphs with boundary data, proving existence and convergence.
problem Willmore flow of graphs with boundary conditions over bounded domains.
method Developed low-regularity theory, reformulated graphical equation, used time-weighted parabolic Hölder spaces.
result Proved short-time and global existence for initial data in C1+α(Ω) and Lipschitz, with exponential convergence. Order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order signs (to buy or sell) are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens of thousands of orders, corresponding to many days. Two possible explanations are herding, corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different invest…
The study uses equity order flow to forecast stock returns and resolves the liquidity premium puzzle.
problem The liquidity premium and its relation to investment horizons.
method Directly estimated Kyle's price-impact coefficient λ from daily equity order flow data.
result Signed order flow predicts stock returns, with volume volatility predicting lower returns.
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
Comprehending complex systems by simplifying and highlighting important dynamical patterns requires modeling and mapping higher-order network flows. However, complex systems come in many forms and demand a range of representations, including memory and multilayer networks, which in turn call for versatile community-det…
Autoregressive flow models can perform causal discovery and inference tasks.
problem Causal inference tasks such as causal discovery and interventional predictions.
method Using autoregressive flow models to estimate causal directions and make predictions.
result Autoregressive flows can accurately perform causal inference tasks without restrictive assumptions.
We study the multi-level order-flow imbalance (MLOFI), which is a vector quantity that measures the net flow of buy and sell orders at different price levels in a limit order book (LOB). Using a recent, high-quality data set for 6 liquid stocks on Nasdaq, we fit a simple, linear relationship between MLOFI and the conte…
Filters on order flow improve short-term market directionality.
problem Improving directional signals from order flow in financial markets.
method Structural filters on order lifetime, modification count, and timing applied to BankNifty index futures.
result Filters on parent orders of executed trades show stronger directional association with returns.
This paper uses Hawkes processes to forecast high-frequency order flow imbalance.
problem Forecasting the asymmetry in high-frequency order flow events.
method Hawkes processes accounting for lagged dependence between bid and offer events.
result Hawkes process with a Sum of Exponential's kernel gives the best forecast of order flow imbalance.
Unified model explains market dynamics, linking order flow, volatility, and impact.
problem Understanding the dynamics of order flow, market impact, and volatility in financial markets.
method Proposes a microstructural model using Hawkes processes to distinguish core orders and reaction flow, and analyzes their scaling limits.
result Estimates the persistence parameter H0 and finds it consistent with market impact and volatility properties. Paper proposes BOCPD for real-time order flow and market impact prediction.
problem Persistent order flow patterns in financial markets.
method Bayesian online change-point detection (BOCPD) with score-driven approach.
result Model outperforms existing models in predicting order flow and market impact.
Flow models recover causal transformations from observational data and a valid ordering.
problem Causal inference with only observational data and a valid causal ordering.
method Flow models that can recover component-wise, invertible transformations of exogenous variables.
result Flow models outperform previous methods and deliver consistent performance across various structural causal models.
Generative model predicts financial market order flow with high accuracy.
problem Creating realistic order flow models for financial markets.
method Token-level autoregressive generative model using deep state space layers.
result Model generates high-quality order flow data with low perplexity.
Modeling financial markets with a novel order flow model.
problem Inconsistent parameter values from long-range memory estimators.
method Tsallis q-exponential distribution for limit order cancellation times.
result Improved accuracy in predicting financial market dynamics.
A model simulates how different types of traders react to macroeconomic news.
problem Understanding how various market participants respond to macroeconomic surprises.
method Developed a calibrated data generation process (DGP) with four trader archetypes and a Monte Carlo simulation.
result Higher information and lower risk-averse traders take larger positions and achieve higher average wealth.
The study examines order flow in financial markets using fractional Lévy stable motion.
problem Challenges in selecting the best models for financial time series data.
method Investigates order disbalance time series from the perspective of fractional Lévy stable motion.
result Orders exhibit stable anti-correlation for 18 randomly selected stocks.
Paper introduces Tensor Gauge Flow Models for better data encoding.
problem Lack of expressive flow dynamics in existing Generative Flow Models.
method Incorporates higher-order Tensor Gauge Fields into the Flow Equation.
result Tensor Gauge Flow Models achieve improved generative performance.
New model explains why metaorder impact estimation is hard with public data.
problem Difficulty in estimating metaorder impact using public market data.
method Proposed a modified Transient Impact Model to better describe order flow.
result Model shows market impact can be permanent under certain conditions.
The paper defines and analyzes higher-order Yang-Mills-Higgs functionals and their gradient flows.
problem Analyzing the behavior of higher-order Yang-Mills-Higgs functionals and their gradient flows.
method Gauge fixing technique, L2-bound of the Higgs field, local L2-derivative estimates, energy estimates, blow-up analysis. result Solutions to the gradient flow do not hit finite time singularities under certain conditions.
Rectified flows achieve optimal sample complexity for generating data.
problem Generating high-quality data samples efficiently.
method Rectified flows constrain transport trajectories to be linear, enabling efficient sampling.
result Achieve sample complexity of ildeO(ε−2), matching optimal rate for mean estimation. We investigate the behavior of limit order books on the meso-scale motivated by order execution scheduling algorithms. To do so we carry out empirical analysis of the order flows from market and limit order submissions, aggregated from tick-by-tick data via volume-based bucketing, as well as various LOB depth and shape…
Gradient flow of ReLU networks converges in low-correlation high-dimensional data.
problem Convergence of shallow ReLU networks trained on weakly interacting data.
method Gradient flow analysis with Polyak-Łojasiewicz viewpoint.
result Network width of order log(n) neurons suffices for global convergence with high probability.
We study the long memory of order flow for each of three liquid currency pairs on a large electronic trading platform in the foreign exchange (FX) spot market. Due to the extremely high levels of market activity on the platform, and in contrast to existing empirical studies of other markets, our data enables us to perf…
Study optimal strategies for unwinding uncertain order flows in financial trading desks.
problem Optimizing strategies for handling uncertain order flows in financial trading desks.
method Modeling and solving the problem for a general class of in-flow processes, enabling an analytic solution.
result Optimal strategies depend on the autocorrelation of orders; only truth-telling flow is unwound myopically.
This work proposes a model for geodesic distances and flows on manifolds.
problem Geodesic distances and flows on differentiable manifolds.
method Manifold-augmented Eikonal equation solutions.
result Geodesic flow provides globally length-minimizing curves.
Causal autoregressive flows enable accurate causal inference and prediction.
problem Causal discovery and interventional predictions in machine learning.
method Autoregressive normalizing flows with fixed variable orderings.
result Causal models derived from autoregressive flows are identifiable and allow for accurate interventional and counterfactual predictions.
Deep model predicts Bitcoin price movements without retraining.
problem Stationary modelling of high-frequency Bitcoin price movements.
method Deep recurrent model based on order flow.
result Model maintains stability during volatile periods.
This thesis explores bifoliated planes and their group actions from Anosov flows.
problem Understanding bifoliated planes and their group actions from Anosov flows.
method Analyzes bifoliated planes associated with Anosov flows and describes their properties.
result Shows left-orderability of groups acting on bifoliated planes and describes bifoliated planes from specific families of Anosov flows.
A Hawkes process with state-dependent factor models order flows in limit order books.
problem Modeling order flows in limit order books for better market prediction.
method A Hawkes process with a state-dependent factor for conditional intensity estimation.
result State-dependent formulations improve the fit of LOB models to financial data.
We study the price impact of order book events - limit orders, market orders and cancelations - using the NYSE TAQ data for 50 U.S. stocks. We show that, over short time intervals, price changes are mainly driven by the order flow imbalance, defined as the imbalance between supply and demand at the best bid and ask pri…
In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling the persistence of the order flow with market efficiency is a subtle issue. A poss…
Flow-based models generate data with improved theoretical guarantees.
problem Theoretical analysis of flow-based generative models.
method Proximal gradient descent in Wasserstein space for JKO flow model.
result KL guarantee of data generation by JKO flow model is O(ε2). Study shows uniform decay rate for singular mean curvature flows.
problem Understanding singularities in mean curvature flows.
method Rescaled flow analysis near compact singularities.
result Uniform decay order bound for the rescaled flow.
The study confirms that market volatility can be explained by correlated metaorders impacting prices in a square-root fashion.
problem Explaining market volatility using metaorders and their impact.
method Generated synthetic market data and analyzed the correlation between order flow and returns.
result The square-root law of market impact is confirmed and can be measured from anonymized trade data.
We introduce a Cox-type model for relative intensities of orders flows in a limit order book. The model assumes that all intensities share a common baseline intensity, which may for example represent the global market activity. Parameters can be estimated by quasi likelihood maximization, without any interference from …
Chen's flow is a fourth-order curvature flow motivated by the spectral decomposition of immersions, a program classically pushed by B.-Y. Chen since the 1970s. In curvature flow terms the flow sits at the critical level of scaling together with the most popular extrinsic fourth-order curvature flow, the Willmore and su…
In this work we introduce two variants of multivariate Hawkes models with an explicit dependency on various queue sizes aimed at modeling the stochastic time evolution of a limit order book. The models we propose thus integrate the influence of both the current book state and the past order flow. The first variant cons…
Modeling the impact of the order flow on asset prices is of primary importance to understand the behavior of financial markets. Part I of this paper reported the remarkable improvements in the description of the price dynamics which can be obtained when one incorporates the impact of past returns on the future order fl…
Study shows how macroeconomic news affects intraday price and order flow dynamics.
problem Understanding how macroeconomic news impacts intraday price and order flow dynamics.
method Structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity, estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute interval.
result Macroeconomic news announcements reshape price-flow dynamics, with significant impacts on price and flow impacts at the one-second horizon.
Existence of translating solutions shown for curve diffusion flow.
problem Existence of translating solutions for curve diffusion flow.
method Higher order curve shortening flow approach.
result Properly immersed translating solutions exist.
Modeling price dynamics in response to order flow imbalance in Chinese futures markets.
problem Understanding price dynamics in markets with order flow imbalance.
method Modeling order flow imbalance as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with memory and mean-reverting characteristics.
result Horizon-dependent heterogeneity in conventional metrics' interaction with order flow imbalance.
We identify and analyze statistical regularities and irregularities in the recent order flow of different NASDAQ stocks, focusing on the positions where orders are placed in the orderbook. This includes limit orders being placed outside of the spread, inside the spread and (effective) market orders. We find that limit …
Study shows price impact increases with order-flow imbalance, using machine learning.
problem Understanding price impact in financial markets.
method Empirical investigation using Kyle's model and machine learning.
result Machine learning models can predict market impact more accurately than traditional methods.