A framework models order book dynamics using point processes and mass transport.
problem Capturing the complex dynamics of limit order books.
method Combines spatial point process for order flow and mass transport operator for market clearing.
result Provides insights into the interplay between order flow and price dynamics.
This work's purpose is to understand the dynamics of limit order books in order-driven markets. We try to illustrate a dynamical trading mechanism attached to the microstructure of limit order markets. We capture the iterative nature of trading processes, which is critical in the dynamics of bid-ask pairs and the switc…
We propose an analytically tractable class of models for the dynamics of a limit order book, described through a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with multiplicative noise for the order book centered at the mid-price, along with stochastic dynamics for the mid-price which is consistent with the order flo…
Study stabilizes second-order systems to first-order dynamics.
problem Stabilizing second-order systems to first-order dynamics.
method Feedback control of second-order systems on manifolds.
result Second-order systems can globally exponentially stabilize first-order dynamics for fully actuated systems.
We consider a stochastic model for the dynamics of the two-sided limit order book (LOB). Our model is flexible enough to allow for a dependence of the price dynamics on volumes. For the joint dynamics of best bid and ask prices and the standing buy and sell volume densities, we derive a functional limit theorem, which …
We propose a model for the dynamics of a limit order book in a liquid market where buy and sell orders are submitted at high frequency. We derive a functional central limit theorem for the joint dynamics of the bid and ask queues and show that, when the frequency of order arrivals is large, the intraday dynamics of the…
A new method uses higher-order Langevin dynamics with critical damping for better generative modeling.
problem Improving generative models using Langevin dynamics with auxiliary variables.
method Introducing higher-order Langevin dynamics with critical damping, providing closed-form solutions.
result Improved generative models with better performance as measured by FID metric.
SONODEs and ANODEs improve learning of second order dynamics.
problem Learning dynamics governed by second order laws.
method Extended adjoint sensitivity method and theoretical analysis of ANODEs.
result SONODEs and ANODEs can learn higher order dynamics efficiently.
Paper models Bitcoin market dynamics using 1+1D field theory.
problem Understanding stylized facts in Bitcoin markets.
method Collects order-book datasets, applies KPZ-like stochastic equations.
result Predicts order book dynamics with high precision.
Study of volume dynamics at market spread in Bitcoin/USD.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of order volumes in financial markets.
method Examined the dynamical properties of volume available at the spread, focusing on mean reversion, asymmetry, and clustering.
result Evidence of mean reverting volume changes and strong asymmetries in sell and buy orders.
This paper explains how predictable order flow can lead to Brownian motion in financial prices.
problem Why financial prices exhibit Brownian motion despite predictable order flow.
method Generalized Lillo-Mike-Farmer model to nonlinear price-impact dynamics, mapping to Lévy-walk model.
result Price dynamics remain diffusive under the square-root law, even with persistent order flow.
We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions for various quantit…
Review and compare model order reduction methods for process engineering.
problem Creating computationally efficient yet accurate models for real-time applications.
method Nonlinear model order reduction methods, including general-purpose and tailored approaches for chemical processes.
result Comparison of eight model order reduction methods applied to an air separation process model.
The aim of this paper is fourfold. Firstly, we introduce and study the f-ultra-harmonic maps. Secondly, we recall the geometric dynamics generated by a first order normal PDE system and we give original results regarding the geometric dynamics generated by other first order PDE systems. Thirdly, we determine the Gauss …
Commonly used limit order book attributes are empirically considered based on NASDAQ ITCH data. It is shown that some of them have the properties drastically different from the ones assumed in many market dynamics study. Because of this difference we propose to make a transition from "Statistical" type of order book st…
We observe that the iterated tangent group of a Lie group may be realized as a double cross product of the 2nd order tangent group, with the Lie algebra of the base Lie group. Based on this observation, we derive the 2nd order Euler-Lagrange equations on the 2nd order tangent group from the 1st order Euler-Lagrange equ…
New method learns population dynamics from snapshots, outperforming existing models.
problem Capturing periodic and other dynamical properties of population dynamics.
method Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics (WLM) for learning second-order dynamics from observed marginals.
result WLM outperforms existing methods across various dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.
The paper analyzes the joint dynamics of prices and order flow in electronic order books.
problem Understanding the micro-dynamics of asset prices in high-frequency trading environments.
method Double coarse-graining procedure and Principal Component Analysis to extract meaningful information.
result The VAR model captures the stability of liquidity modes and their dynamical evolution.
A Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation framework for large continuous dynamical systems
problem Forecasting complex dynamical systems
method Kernel autonomous ODE approach based on Gaussian Processes and Quadratic Order Model Reduction
result Full model outperforms ROM methods in terms of accuracy or computational costs
In this paper we derive a scaling limit for an infinite dimensional limit order book model driven by Hawkes random measures. The dynamics of the incoming order flow is allowed to depend on the current market price as well as on a volume indicator. With our choice of scaling the dynamics converges to a coupled SDE-ODE s…
In an incomplete financial market, the axiomatic of Time Consistent Pricing Procedure (TCPP), recently introduced, is used to assign to any financial asset a dynamic limit order book, taking into account both the dynamics of basic assets and the limit order books for options. Kreps-Yan fundamental theorem is extended t…
This paper examines how Higher-Order Langevin Dynamics reduces memorization in diffusion models.
problem Memorization of training samples in diffusion models, violating copyright and privacy.
method Introduces Higher-Order Langevin Dynamics (HOLD) to regularize diffusion model trajectories.
result The dynamics of the data variable in HOLD are governed by a low-pass-filtered version of the learned score function, with smoothness increasing with model order.
CEFOL uses deep learning for dynamic programming with recursive utility.
problem Challenges in solving dynamic programming problems with recursive utility.
method Introduces a separate neural network for certainty equivalent, uses first-order optimality conditions to learn value and policy functions.
result CEFOL achieves high accuracy in learning value and policy functions, matching VFI benchmarks.
Proposes a framework to predict stock movements by integrating multi-order and internal dynamics.
problem Predicting stock movements with multi-order and internal dynamics.
method Temporal generative filters and hypergraph attentions using wavelet basis.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of profit and stability.
Study shows how macroeconomic news affects intraday price and order flow dynamics.
problem Understanding how macroeconomic news impacts intraday price and order flow dynamics.
method Structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity, estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute interval.
result Macroeconomic news announcements reshape price-flow dynamics, with significant impacts on price and flow impacts at the one-second horizon.
Modeling price dynamics in response to order flow imbalance in Chinese futures markets.
problem Understanding price dynamics in markets with order flow imbalance.
method Modeling order flow imbalance as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with memory and mean-reverting characteristics.
result Horizon-dependent heterogeneity in conventional metrics' interaction with order flow imbalance.
New method learns nonlinear projections for reduced-order modeling of complex dynamical systems.
problem Modeling transient dynamics near a manifold in nonlinear systems.
method Constrained autoencoder neural networks with invertible activation functions and biorthogonal weight matrices.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on a vortex shedding model, learning oblique fibers for fast dynamics.
This paper studies a limit order book (LOB) model, in which the order dynamics depend on both, the current best available prices and the current volume density functions. For the joint dynamics of the best bid price, the best ask price, and the standing volume densities on both sides of the LOB we derive a weak law of …
Study analyzes order transitions in high, medium, and low market cap stocks using Markov chains.
problem Understanding order transitions in stocks of different market caps.
method First-order discrete-time Markov chain model applied to NASDAQ100 stocks.
result Limit orders exhibit higher inertia during opening hours but decrease in subsequent hours, while market orders increase.
The moments of spatial probabilistic systems are often given by an infinite hierarchy of coupled differential equations. Moment closure methods are used to approximate a subset of low order moments by terminating the hierarchy at some order and replacing higher order terms with functions of lower order ones. For a give…
Using Caputo fractional derivative of order α we build the fractional jet bundle of order α and its main geometrical structures. Defined on that bundle, some fractional dynamical systems with applications to economics are studied.
Proposes efficient sampling methods for solving linear inverse problems.
problem Solving linear inverse problems with computational efficiency and accuracy.
method Higher-order Langevin diffusion with pre-conditioning and annealing.
result Provable sampling from posterior distributions with accelerated convergence.
This note deals with arbitrary Morse-Smale diffeomorphisms in dimension 3 and extends ideas from \cite{GrLaPo}, \cite{GrLaPo1}, where gradient-like case was considered. We introduce a kind of Morse-Lyapunov function, called dynamically ordered, which fits well dynamics of diffeomorphism. The paper is devoted to finding…
ROAD-EnKFs use learned low-dimensional models to improve state reconstruction and forecasting.
problem Reconstructing and forecasting states of unknown or expensive systems.
method Learned low-dimensional surrogate models and ensemble Kalman filter integration.
result ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost than existing methods.
Proposes exact inference for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics.
problem Inexact inference methods for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics are impractical for irregularly-sampled data.
method Uses higher-order numerical integrators to discretize dynamics with arbitrary accuracy and proposes multistep and Taylor integrators for exact inference.
result Demonstrates accurate representation of continuous-time systems through exact GP inference.
Paper introduces OMD for ordered state transitions in SSMs.
problem Modeling ordered latent states in dynamic systems.
method Ordered Matrix Dirichlet (OMD) prior over ordered stochastic matrices.
result OMD models recover interpretable ordered latent structure without sacrificing predictive performance.
A new algebraic framework models LOBs with physics and stochastic processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of limit order books (LOBs).
method Algebraic framework using Dirac notation and generating functions.
result Exact simulations of market scenarios using the Gillespie algorithm.
Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) yields a linear, approximate model of a system's dynamics that is built from data. We seek to reduce the order of this model by identifying a reduced set of modes that best fit the output. We adopt a model selection algorithm from statistics and machine learning known as Least Angle Reg…
New method uses higher-order Langevin dynamics for efficient parallel sampling.
problem Efficient parallel sampling from high-dimensional log-concave distributions.
method Combines higher-order Langevin dynamics with blockwise Lagrange polynomial interpolation.
result Reduces the number of parallel points required for a target accuracy.
Study reduces financial dynamics complexity using PCA for NASDAQ, oil, gold, and USD.
problem Understanding complex financial interactions among multiple assets.
method Time-delay embedding and PCA for dimensionality reduction, followed by linear regression.
result Limited number of principal components capture dominant dynamics of each asset.
Enhances option pricing with fractional order Black-Scholes-Merton model.
problem Improving precision and authenticity of option pricing.
method Integrates fractional order Black-Scholes-Merton with neural networks.
result Improves accuracy in capturing complex diffusion dynamics and memory effects.
We report a statistical analysis of the Island ECN (NASDAQ) order book. We determine the static and dynamic properties of this system, and then analyze them from a physicist's viewpoint using an equivalent particle system obtained by treating orders as massive particles and price as position. We identify the fundamenta…
Study shows bifurcating price dynamics in ASME with traders.
problem Understanding price dynamics in artificial stock markets.
method Agent-based model of endogenous traders interacting through a LOB.
result Bistability in price equilibria: zero-price and persistent positive-price states.
DQN outperforms static policies in a dynamic fee environment for automated market makers.
problem How automated market makers (AMMs) perform under dynamic fees is unknown.
method Constructed a closed-loop simulator with dynamic fees, noise flow, and arbitrage.
result A small DQN policy outperforms static policies in a dynamic fee environment.
TOLD++ improves convergence of diffusion models by critically damping the forward transition matrix.
problem Improving the convergence of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models.
method Critically damping the Third-Order Langevin Dynamics (TOLD) forward transition matrix using eigen-analysis.
result TOLD++ converges faster than TOLD, verified on toy and real datasets.
Optimizes trade execution with reinforcement learning for limit orders.
problem Maximizing revenue in a limit order book with market and limit orders.
method Formulated as a dynamic allocation task, uses multivariate logistic-normal distributions for efficient training.
result Outperforms traditional strategies in simulated environments.
This is an almost self-contained monograph (containing some new results) on left-orderable groups which mostly rely on dynamical and probabilistic aspects, but also on geometric, combinatorial, analytic, and topological ones. This new version contains many improvements, corrections and updates, many of them suggested b…
Study analyzes price change patterns across different market capitalizations using Markov chains.
problem Understanding price dynamics in limit order markets across various market capitalizations.
method Discrete-time Markov chain analysis of intraday price changes in NASDAQ100 tick data.
result Systematic patterns in price inertia and stability across market capitalizations are identified.