A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study uses contrastive learning to analyze market order behavior.
Fourth-order problem on half-ball with corner behavior.
In this study, we present a simple stochastic order-book model for investors' swarm behaviors seen in the continuous double auction mechanism, which is employed by major global exchanges. Our study shows a characteristic called "fat tail" is seen in the data obtained from our model that incorporates the investors' swar…
In order-driven markets, limit-order book (LOB) resiliency is an important microscopic indicator of market quality when the order book is hit by a liquidity shock and plays an essential role in the design of optimal submission strategies of large orders. However, the evolutionary behavior of LOB resilience around liqui…
A combination of a priority queueing model and mean field theory shows the emergence of traders' swarm behavior, even when each has a subjective prediction of the market driven by a limit order book. Using a nonlinear Markov model, we analyze the dynamics of traders who select a favorable order price taking into accoun…
Constructs Cartan geometries from automorphism behaviors.
Using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the order flows of 23 stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we study the empirical regularities of order placement in the opening call auction, cool period and continuous auction. The distributions of relative logarithmic prices against reference prices in the thre…
In this work, we propose an order book model with herd behavior. The proposed model is built upon two distinct approaches: a recent empirical study of the detailed order book records by Kanazawa et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 120, 138301] and financial herd behavior model. Combining these approaches allows us to propose a mo…
Context-awareness in smart mobile applications is a growing area of study, because of it's intelligence in the applications. In order to build context-aware intelligent applications, mining contextual behavioral rules of individual smartphone users utilizing their phone log data is the key. However, to mine these rules…
Order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order signs (to buy or sell) are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens of thousands of orders, corresponding to many days. Two possible explanations are herding, corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different invest…
Quantitative analysis of order-splitting behavior in Japanese stock market.
The short-time asymptotic behavior of option prices for a variety of models with jumps has received much attention in recent years. In the present work, a novel second-order approximation for ATM option prices under the CGMY Lévy model is derived, and then extended to a model with an additional independent Brownian com…
ClusterLOB clusters market events to identify different trading behaviors.
We show that the statistics of spreads in real order books is characterized by an intrinsic asymmetry due to discreteness effects for even or odd values of the spread. An analysis of data from the NYSE order book points out that traders' strategies contribute to this asymmetry. We also investigate this phenomenon in th…
Although behavioral economics has demonstrated that there are many situations where rational choice is a poor empirical model, it has so far failed to provide quantitative models of economic problems such as price formation. We make a step in this direction by developing empirical models that capture behavioral regular…
The standard deviation and Gini mean difference order based on tail behavior.
An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior…
Order positions are key variables in algorithmic trading. This paper studies the limiting behavior of order positions and related queues in a limit order book. In addition to the fluid and diffusion limits for the processes, fluctuations of order positions and related queues around their fluid limits are analyzed. As a…
We show precompactness results for solutions to parabolic fourth order geometric evolution equations. As part of the proof we obtain smoothing estimates for these flows in the presence of a curvature bound, an improvement on prior results which also require a Sobolev constant bound. As consequences of these results we …
Study higher-order spin glass models for social network behavior with peer-group effects.
In reinforcement learning, an agent attempts to learn high-performing behaviors through interacting with the environment, such behaviors are often quantified in the form of a reward function. However some aspects of behavior-such as ones which are deemed unsafe and to be avoided-are best captured through constraints. W…
Financial markets can be described on several time scales. We use data from the limit order book of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) to compare how the fluctuation dominated microstructure crosses over to a more systematic global behavior.
Study of Dirichlet minimizers on manifolds with boundary and their asymptotic behavior.
Through the analysis of a dataset of ultra high frequency order book updates, we introduce a model which accommodates the empirical properties of the full order book together with the stylized facts of lower frequency financial data. To do so, we split the time interval of interest into periods in which a well chosen r…
Geometric optics describes wave behavior near convex obstacles.
Fractional stochastic volatility models have been widely used to capture the non-Markovian structure revealed from financial time series of realized volatility. On the other hand, empirical studies have identified scales in stock price volatility: both fast-time scale on the order of days and slow-scale on the order of…
An exclusion particle model is considered as a highly simplified model of a limit order market. Its price behavior reproduces the well known crossover from over-diffusion (Hurst exponent H>1/2) to diffusion (H=1/2) when the time horizon is increased, provided that orders are allowed to be canceled. For early times a ma…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a sharp analysis on the asymptotic behavior of the Durbin-Watson statistic. We focus our attention on the first-order autoregressive process where the driven noise is also given by a first-order autoregressive process. We establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic n…
Exchange uses incentives to optimize limit order book dynamics.
Study describes how conformal metrics behave as Q-curvature changes, forming spherical bubbles.
Improved scalability and interpretability in training data attribution.
A new algebraic framework models LOBs with physics and stochastic processes.
A first-order model for a stock market assigns to each stock a return parameter and a variance parameter that depend only on the rank of the stock. A second-order model assigns these parameters based on both the rank and the name of the stock. First- and second-order models exhibit stability properties that make them a…
Order submission and cancellation are two constituent actions of stock trading behaviors in order-driven markets. Order submission dynamics has been extensively studied for different markets, while order cancellation dynamics is less understood. There are two positions associated with a cancellation, that is, the price…
Behavior of systems that are functions of anticipated behavior of other systems, whose own behavior is also anticipatory but homeostatic and determined by hierarchical ordering, which changes over time, of sets of possible environments that are not co-possible, is proven to be highly non-linear and sensitively dependen…
We consider a disk-shaped thin elastic sheet bonded to a compliant sphere. (Our sheet can slip along the sphere; the bonding controls only its normal displacement.) If the bonding is stiff (but not too stiff), the geometry of the sphere makes the sheet wrinkle to avoid azimuthal compression. The total energy of this sy…
The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF…
For a surface with marked points and fixed genus , we prove that the logarithm of the minimal dilatation of a pseudo-Anosov homeomorphism of is on the order of . This is in contrast with the cases of genus zero or one where the order is .
Mobile phones can record individual's daily behavioral data as a time-series. In this paper, we present an effective time-series segmentation technique that extracts optimal time segments of individual's similar behavioral characteristics utilizing their mobile phone data. One of the determinants of an individual's beh…
The purpose of this paper is to identify the immediate and future retailer response to wholesale stockouts. We perform a statistical analysis of historical customer order and delivery data of a local tool wholesaler and distributor, whose customers are retailers, over a period of four years. We investigate the effect o…
Model predicts Chinese stock market liquidity and customer order behavior.
Model predicts stock returns from order arrivals and cancellations.
Research proves limits on harmonic map orders into Euclidean buildings.
Discovering the underlying physical behavior of complex systems is a crucial, but less well-understood topic in many engineering disciplines. This study proposes a finite-difference inspired convolutional neural network framework to learn hidden partial differential equations from given data and iteratively estimate fu…
This paper strengthens the central limit theorem for order statistics using relative entropy.
Imitation learning trains a policy from expert demonstrations. Imitation learning approaches have been designed from various principles, such as behavioral cloning via supervised learning, apprenticeship learning via inverse reinforcement learning, and GAIL via generative adversarial learning. In this paper, we propose…
This paper proposes a general model for synchronized crowding behavior. An order parameter is introduced to quantify the level of synchronization which is shown a function of percentage of agents in reactive state. Further, synchronization is shown to be driven by the most active agents with the highest volatility. A t…
In financial markets, abnormal trading behaviors pose a serious challenge to market surveillance and risk management. What is worse, there is an increasing emergence of abnormal trading events that some experienced traders constitute a collusive clique and collaborate to manipulate some instruments, thus mislead other …