A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Modeling trading excursions and avalanches in a simplified market model.
Deep learning detects snow avalanches in SAR images with high accuracy.
An interbank market lets participants pool the risk arising from the combination of illiquid investments and random withdrawals by depositors. But it also creates the potential for one bank's failure to trigger off avalanches of further failures. We simulate a model of interbank lending to study the interplay of these …
Modeling financial markets with sandpile model to understand price volatility and arbitrage constraints.
This study examine the difference in the size of avalanches among industries triggered by demand shocks, which can be rephrased by control of the economy or fiscal policy, and by using the production-inventory model and observed data. We obtain the following results. (1) The size of avalanches follows power law. (2) Th…
The Stock Market is a complex self-interacting system, characterized by an intermittent behaviour. Periods of high activity alternate with periods of relative calm. In the present work we investigate empirically about the possibility that the market is in a self-organized critical state (SOC). A wavelet transform metho…
Avalanches, or Avalanche-like, events are often observed in the dynamical behaviour of many complex systems which span from solar flaring to the Earth's crust dynamics and from traffic flows to financial markets. Self-organized criticality (SOC) is one of the most popular theories able to explain this intermittent char…
Building on similarities between earthquakes and extreme financial events, we use a self-organized criticality-generating model to study herding and avalanche dynamics in financial markets. We consider a community of interacting investors, distributed on a small-world network, who bet on the bullish (increasing) or bea…
Although standard economics textbooks are seldom interested in production networks, modern economies are more and more based upon suppliers/customers interactions. One can consider entire sectors of the economy as generalised supply chains. We will take this view in the present paper and study under which conditions lo…
Self-organized criticality has been claimed to play an important role in many natural and social systems. In the present work we empirically investigate the relevance of this theory to stock-market dynamics. Avalanches in stock-market indices are identified using a multi-scale wavelet-filtering analysis designed to rem…
This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European count…
A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving be…
We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking regulation, the so called Merton-Vasicek model. Economic agents are attracted to each ot…
A brief historical perspective is first given concerning financial crashes, - from the 17th till the 20th century. In modern times, it seems that log periodic oscillations are found before crashes in several financial indices. The same is found in sand pile avalanches on Sierpinski gaskets. A discussion pertains to the…
Technical analysis (TA) has been used for a long time before the availability of more sophisticated instruments for financial forecasting in order to suggest decisions on the basis of the occurrence of data patterns. Many mathematical and statistical tools for quantitative analysis of financial markets have experienced…
A simple model economy with locally interacting producers and consumers is introduced. When driven by extremal dynamics, the model self-organizes {\em not} to an attractor state, but to an asymptote, on which the economy has a constant rate of deflation, is critical, and exhibits avalanches of activity with power-law d…
We show that for a certain class of dynamics at the nodes the response of a network of any topology to arbitrary inputs is defined in a simple way by its response to a monotone input. The nodes may have either a discrete or continuous set of states and there is no limit on the complexity of the network. The results pro…
We study the collective behavior of interacting agents in a simple model of market economics originally introduced by Nørrelykke and Bak. A general theoretical framework for interacting traders on an arbitrary network is presented, with the interaction consisting of buying (namely, consumption) and selling (namely, pro…
Paper proposes methods to reduce financial contagion by targeted cash injections.
In this paper, making use of recent statistical physics techniques and models, we address the specific role of randomness in financial markets, both at the micro and the macro level. In particular, we review some recent results obtained about the effectiveness of random strategies of investment, compared with some of t…
SOC theory explains financial volatility and economic shocks.
We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network connections. Credit interlinkages among agents are a source of bankruptcy diffusion…
Crypto markets show negative spillovers between chains, not positive co-movements.
This study investigates self-organizing dynamics in a stochastic exponential DAM model using Temporal Complexity.
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions pr…
A bridge between continuous signals and discrete Ising spins for associative memory.
As we enter into the big data age and an avalanche of images have become readily available, recognition systems face the need to move from close, lab settings where the number of classes and training data are fixed, to dynamic scenarios where the number of categories to be recognized grows continuously over time, as we…
A new auction model for zero-marginal cost products.
Survey examines big data's role in network design.
Proves HNN extensions of nilpotent groups are left-orderable, constructs non-left-orderable examples.
New criterion links circular-orderability to left-orderability.
The study examines order flow patterns in NASDAQ stocks, finding that limit order placement inside the spread is influenced by spread dynamics.
The paper characterizes L-space 3-manifolds using quandle orderability.
In order-driven markets, limit-order book (LOB) resiliency is an important microscopic indicator of market quality when the order book is hit by a liquidity shock and plays an essential role in the design of optimal submission strategies of large orders. However, the evolutionary behavior of LOB resilience around liqui…
Optimal stock trading strategy with market orders and limit orders in a risky market.
Algorithm confirms non-order-preserving braids, proving infinite family not order-preserving.
Study analyzes order transitions in high, medium, and low market cap stocks using Markov chains.
The paper explores orderability in link quandles and provides various results.
We study the analytical properties of a one-side order book model in which the flows of limit and market orders are Poisson processes and the distribution of lifetimes of cancelled orders is exponential. Although simplistic, the model provides an analytical tractability that should not be overlooked. Using basic result…
Map quandle orders to actions, characterize isolated orders, and prove no isolated right orders.
The paper defines circular orderability for quandles and explores their properties.
Paper finds conditions for free product of circularly-ordered groups to have a circular ordering.
Bi-orderable groups from left-orderable ones, showing non-profinite properties.
Study finds power-law tails in order imbalance distributions of Chinese stocks.
In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling the persistence of the order flow with market efficiency is a subtle issue. A poss…
Paper introduces techniques to learn higher-order programs, improving predictive accuracy and reducing learning times.
It is well known that a countable group admits a left-invariant total order if and only if it acts faithfully on R by orientation preserving homeomorphisms. Such group actions are special cases of group actions on simply connected 1-manifolds, or equivalently, actions on oriented order trees. We characterize a class of…
New features capture the order of data streams.