A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We discuss the relative merits of optimistic and randomized approaches to exploration in reinforcement learning. Optimistic approaches presented in the literature apply an optimistic boost to the value estimate at each state-action pair and select actions that are greedy with respect to the resulting optimistic value f…
It is well known that in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB), the sample mean of an arm is typically not an unbiased estimator of its true mean. In this paper, we decouple three different sources of this selection bias: adaptive \emph{sampling} of arms, adaptive \emph{stopping} of the experiment, and adaptively \emph{…
The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood that identifies a probability measure which lies in the neighbor…
We derive an alternative proof for the regret of Thompson sampling (\ts) in the stochastic linear bandit setting. While we obtain a regret bound of order O(d3/2T) as in previous results, the proof sheds new light on the functioning of the \ts. We leverage on the structure of the problem to show …
We show that the optimistic limits of the colored Jones polynomials of the hyperbolic knots coincide with the optimistic limits of the Kashaev invariants modulo 4π2.
We consider the problem of online planning in a Markov Decision Process when given only access to a generative model, restricted to open-loop policies - i.e. sequences of actions - and under budget constraint. In this setting, the Open-Loop Optimistic Planning (OLOP) algorithm enjoys good theoretical guarantees but is …
The optimistic limit is the mathematical formulation of the classical limit which is a physical method to expect the actual limit by using saddle point method of certain potential function. The original optimistic limit of the Kashaev invariant was formulated by Yokota, and a modified formulation was suggested by the a…
Model-based Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) allows a found formalization of the problem of acting optimally while facing an unknown environment, i.e., avoiding the exploration-exploitation dilemma. However, algorithms explicitly addressing BRL suffer from such a combinatorial explosion that a large body of work r…
We show how to take any two parameter-free online learning algorithms with different regret guarantees and obtain a single algorithm whose regret is the minimum of the two base algorithms. Our method is embarrassingly simple: just add the iterates. This trick can generate efficient algorithms that adapt to many norms s…
We propose a new variant of AMSGrad, a popular adaptive gradient based optimization algorithm widely used for training deep neural networks. Our algorithm adds prior knowledge about the sequence of consecutive mini-batch gradients and leverages its underlying structure making the gradients sequentially predictable. By …
Information extracted from electrohysterography recordings could potentially prove to be an interesting additional source of information to estimate the risk on preterm birth. Recently, a large number of studies have reported near-perfect results to distinguish between recordings of patients that will deliver term or p…
Bayesian optimisation is a powerful tool to solve expensive black-box problems, but fails when the stationary assumption made on the objective function is strongly violated, which is the case in particular for ill-conditioned or discontinuous objectives. We tackle this problem by proposing a new Bayesian optimisation f…
A fundamental problem arising in many areas of machine learning is the evaluation of the likelihood of a given observation under different nominal distributions. Frequently, these nominal distributions are themselves estimated from data, which makes them susceptible to estimation errors. We thus propose to replace each…
Actor-critic methods, a type of model-free Reinforcement Learning, have been successfully applied to challenging tasks in continuous control, often achieving state-of-the art performance. However, wide-scale adoption of these methods in real-world domains is made difficult by their poor sample efficiency. We address th…
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice of over-optimism or over…