A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice of over-optimism or over…
A fundamental problem arising in many areas of machine learning is the evaluation of the likelihood of a given observation under different nominal distributions. Frequently, these nominal distributions are themselves estimated from data, which makes them susceptible to estimation errors. We thus propose to replace each…
It is well known that in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB), the sample mean of an arm is typically not an unbiased estimator of its true mean. In this paper, we decouple three different sources of this selection bias: adaptive \emph{sampling} of arms, adaptive \emph{stopping} of the experiment, and adaptively \emph{…
The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood that identifies a probability measure which lies in the neighbor…
Robust Optimization has traditionally taken a pessimistic, or worst-case viewpoint of uncertainty which is motivated by a desire to find sets of optimal policies that maintain feasibility under a variety of operating conditions. In this paper, we explore an optimistic, or best-case view of uncertainty and show that it …
Model-based Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) allows a found formalization of the problem of acting optimally while facing an unknown environment, i.e., avoiding the exploration-exploitation dilemma. However, algorithms explicitly addressing BRL suffer from such a combinatorial explosion that a large body of work r…
We show that the optimistic limits of the colored Jones polynomials of the hyperbolic knots coincide with the optimistic limits of the Kashaev invariants modulo 4π2.
We address the issue of limit cycling behavior in training Generative Adversarial Networks and propose the use of Optimistic Mirror Decent (OMD) for training Wasserstein GANs. Recent theoretical results have shown that optimistic mirror decent (OMD) can enjoy faster regret rates in the context of zero-sum games. WGANs …
We discuss the relative merits of optimistic and randomized approaches to exploration in reinforcement learning. Optimistic approaches presented in the literature apply an optimistic boost to the value estimate at each state-action pair and select actions that are greedy with respect to the resulting optimistic value f…
The optimistic limit is the mathematical formulation of the classical limit which is a physical method to expect the actual limit by using saddle point method of certain potential function. The original optimistic limit of the Kashaev invariant was formulated by Yokota, and a modified formulation was suggested by the a…
We consider the problem of minimizing a smooth convex function by reducing the optimization to computing the Nash equilibrium of a particular zero-sum convex-concave game. Zero-sum games can be solved using online learning dynamics, where a classical technique involves simulating two no-regret algorithms that play agai…
We propose a new variant of AMSGrad, a popular adaptive gradient based optimization algorithm widely used for training deep neural networks. Our algorithm adds prior knowledge about the sequence of consecutive mini-batch gradients and leverages its underlying structure making the gradients sequentially predictable. By …
New algorithms reduce regret in online MDPs by adapting to data and variance.
problem Adapting to both adversarial and stochastic environments in online MDPs.
method Develops algorithms based on global optimization and policy optimization, using optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader with log-barrier regularization.
result Achieves refined data-dependent and variance-dependent regret bounds.