Enhances portfolio optimization under uncertainty using robust multi-objective methods.
problem Uncertainties in real-world portfolio optimization scenarios.
method Robust multi-objective optimization with benchmark comparisons.
result More reliable and adaptable portfolio strategies for market uncertainties.
Study optimizes natural resource harvesting under model uncertainty using risk measures.
problem Optimal harvesting policy selection for natural resources under model uncertainty.
method Investigated using neoclassical growth model dynamics and convex risk measures, specifically Fréchet risk measures.
result Robust harvesting strategies quantifying operational and marginal risk under model uncertainty.
A new method optimizes complex engineering designs under uncertainty efficiently.
problem Optimizing large, uncertain engineering designs with limited resources.
method Multi-level informed optimization via decomposed Kriging.
result Significantly faster and more accurate optimization compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Optimizes riskmetrics with uncertainty, making complex problems simpler.
problem Optimizing riskmetrics with distributional uncertainty.
method Unifying result converting non-convex optimization to convex, using closedness under concentration.
result Great tractability achieved through unifying equivalence result.
Optimal financial strategies minimize risk under uncertain models.
problem Maximizing utility in financial markets with model uncertainty.
method Optimized strategies converge to those with minimal norm as uncertainty increases.
result Optimal strategies with minimal norm emerge as uncertainty grows.
Framework for optimizing portfolios under model uncertainty.
problem Optimizing portfolios in volatile markets considering model uncertainty.
method Dynamic programming and robust optimization for Markov decision processes.
result Robust optimization leads to better portfolio strategies in uncertain market conditions.
The paper studies robust risk measures with linear penalties under uncertain distributions.
problem Risk measurement under distributional uncertainty.
method Robust distortion risk measures with linear penalty function under distributional constraints.
result Explicit characterization of optimal quantile distribution and value function.
We study robust stochastic optimization problems in the quasi-sure setting in discrete-time. The strategies in the multi-period-case are restricted to those taking values in a discrete set. The optimization problems under consideration are not concave. We provide conditions under which a maximizer exists. The class of …
We study dynamic allocation problems for discrete time multi-armed bandits under uncertainty, based on the the theory of nonlinear expectations. We show that, under strong independence of the bandits and with some relaxation in the definition of optimality, a Gittins allocation index gives optimal choices. This involve…
Connects robust optimization to conformal prediction for uncertainty sets.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty in sensitive data.
method Defines Mahalanobis distance as a conformity score and generates conformal uncertainty sets.
result Conformal uncertainty sets provide valid and conservative ellipsoidal regions.
Study optimal investment under uncertain conditions.
problem Optimal investment in uncertain market conditions.
method Modelled Knightian uncertainty through multiple priors, solved using stochastic backward equations.
result Existence and uniqueness of optimal investment plan derived.
This paper uses robust optimization to analyze supply chain resilience.
problem Supply chain resilience analysis of multi-modal logistics networks.
method Robust optimization with budget-of-uncertainty.
result Interactive effects of network size, disruption scale, and degree on resilience.
Bayesian optimization reduces hyperparameter tuning cost for stochastic models.
problem Hyperparameter tuning under uncertainty in noisy function evaluations.
method Bayesian optimization framework for scale parameter in stochastic models, using statistical surrogate and closed-form optimizer.
result Significant reduction in computational cost (40 times fewer data points, 40-fold reduction in cost).
IUPM monitors machine learning models under gradual shifts using optimal transport and active labeling.
problem Gradual distribution shifts lead to unnoticed accuracy declines in machine learning models.
method Incremental Uncertainty-aware Performance Monitoring (IUPM) using optimal transport and active labeling.
result IUPM outperforms existing baselines in gradual shift scenarios and guides label acquisition more effectively.
Investment and consumption strategy optimized under uncertain conditions.
problem Optimal investment and consumption under logarithmic utility and uncertainty model.
method Characterized using quadratic BSDE.
result Optimal solution found.
This paper reviews recent advances in the field of optimization under uncertainty via a modern data lens, highlights key research challenges and promise of data-driven optimization that organically integrates machine learning and mathematical programming for decision-making under uncertainty, and identifies potential r…
Paper tackles risk-sensitive decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Risk-sensitive decision-making problem under uncertainty.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, delineated necessary optimality conditions.
result Illustrative examples from optimal betting and inventory management support the theory.
Study wSAA for contextual decisions, improving uncertainty quantification under computational constraints.
problem Uncertainty quantification limitations in wSAA for contextual stochastic optimization.
method Establish central limit theorems and asymptotic-normality-based confidence intervals for optimal costs.
result Over-optimizing can mitigate misspecification and preserve asymptotic normality, albeit at a slower convergence rate.
In this work we consider optimal stopping problems with conditional convex risk measures called optimised certainty equivalents. Without assuming any kind of time-consistency for the underlying family of risk measures, we derive a novel representation for the solution of the optimal stopping problem. In particular, we …
Study values and optimizes forestry leases under risk and uncertainty.
problem Valuing and optimizing forestry leases in the presence of catastrophe risk and parameter uncertainty.
method Stochastic bio-economic models, Kalman filter, maximum likelihood estimation, RBSDEs, Monte Carlo simulations.
result Conservative strategy is recommended due to parameter uncertainty.
AIRBO optimizes robustly under uncertain inputs.
problem Challenges in Bayesian Optimization due to input uncertainty.
method AIRBO models arbitrary input uncertainty with MMD and accelerates posterior inference.
result AIRBO achieves state-of-the-art performance under various input uncertainties.
CREDO assesses decision optimality under uncertainty without assuming a model.
problem Uncertainty in decision-making without reliable quantification of optimality.
method CREDO uses the inverse feasible region and conformal prediction balls to estimate decision optimality probability.
result CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality.
Study recovers investor preferences from portfolio data using synthetic data and robust optimization.
problem Recovering latent investor preferences from observed portfolio allocations under uncertainty.
method Inverse portfolio optimization framework integrating robust optimization and regret-based inference.
result Accurate recovery of transaction cost parameters and partial identifiability of ESG penalties under preference misspecification and market shocks.
Sharp bounds for distortion risk metrics under uncertain distributions.
problem Modeling risk metrics under distributional uncertainty.
method Established bounds for distortion risk metrics using specific features of underlying distributions.
result Identified worst- and best-case values of distortion risk metrics.
The paper analyzes investment and consumption strategies under uncertain market conditions.
problem Investment and consumption under drift and volatility uncertainties.
method Randomization approach to construct robust preferences and strategies.
result Developed optimal and robust investment and consumption strategies remain valid in the physical market.
In practice, one must recognize the inevitable incompleteness of information while making decisions. In this paper, we consider the optimal redeeming problem of stock loans under a state of incomplete information presented by the uncertainty in the (bull or bear) trends of the underlying stock. This is called drift unc…
New approach to portfolio optimization shows entropy regularization is ineffective.
problem Entropy regularization in mean-variance portfolio optimization under drift uncertainty.
method Combining Bayesian filtering and stochastic policy optimization.
result Entropy regularization does not accelerate learning about unknown drift.
A new method optimizes robustness measures under input uncertainty using randomized Gaussian process upper confidence bound.
problem Optimizing robustness measures under input uncertainty.
method Randomized robustness measure GP-UCB (RRGP-UCB) that samples β from a chi-squared-based distribution.
result RRGP-UCB provides tight bounds on expected regret.
Study approximates worst-case stock trading under uncertainty, quantifying sensitivity.
problem Maximizing worst-case cost of stock gains and losses under uncertainty.
method Approximates worst-case problem by baseline problem as uncertainty vanishes.
result Value of worst-case problem equals baseline value plus correction term.
Nonparametric adaptive robust control tackles model uncertainty in stochastic processes.
problem Model uncertainty in stochastic processes.
method Adaptive robust control methodology using online learning and uncertainty reduction, empirical distribution, and Lagrangian duality.
result Nonparametric adaptive robust control approach is preferable to traditional robust frameworks.
Improved deep hedging with ensemble uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in deep hedging models hinders their deployment.
method Trained an ensemble of LSTM networks to quantify uncertainty in deep hedging under Heston volatility and proportional transaction costs.
result The ensemble's disagreement provides a strong predictive confidence measure for hedge performance.
Investor optimizes investment strategy under model uncertainty and random utility.
problem Optimizing investment under model ambiguity and random utility.
method Proves existence of optimal strategy using primal methods, with assumptions on market and utility function.
result Existence of optimal investment strategy proven.
SCS identifies a range of plausible equally weighted portfolios, quantifying selection uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in selecting the best equally weighted portfolio subset.
method Introduces Selection Confidence Set (SCS) for EWPs, covering plausible portfolios with high probability.
result SCS quantifies selection uncertainty and covers the unknown optimal selection with high probability.
We give a general formulation of the utility maximization problem under nondominated model uncertainty in discrete time and show that an optimal portfolio exists for any utility function that is bounded from above. In the unbounded case, integrability conditions are needed as nonexistence may arise even if the value fu…
Deep learning complements OR/MS for decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Sequential decision-making in uncertain environments.
method Integration of deep learning and OR/MS frameworks.
result Deep learning enhances adaptability and scalability in decision systems.
Optimizes power systems with energy storage under uncertainty using scenario-based method.
problem Optimizing power systems with energy storage, intermittent renewable generation, and uncontrollable loads under uncertainty.
method Developed a novel solution method based on scenario optimization and strategic sampling to solve the chance-constrained optimal power system operation problem.
result The strategic sampling method significantly improves computational efficiency and data-driven convex approximation of power flow.
New framework for robust regularization under uncertain data distributions.
problem Addressing ill-posed inverse problems and statistical estimation under distributional uncertainty.
method Distributionally robust optimal regularization using convex duality.
result Identifies robust regularizers that remain effective under data distributional perturbations.
New theorems show agents need specific internal structures to perform well under uncertainty.
problem How do agents need to be structured to perform well under uncertainty?
method Proved selection theorems showing strong task performance forces specific internal structures.
result Strong task performance forces world models, belief-like memory, and persistent regime-tracking variables.
New method optimizes decision-making in uncertain environments.
problem Optimal decision-making under partial observability.
method Nested sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for continuous POMDPs.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on continuous POMDP benchmarks.
Improves robust transfer learning with side information.
problem Addressing environmental shift in MDPs with side information.
method Estimate-centered uncertainty sets with side information integration.
result Improved robust policy with reduced sub-optimality gap.
The paper tackles mean-variance analysis in Bayesian optimization under uncertainty.
problem Optimizing decisions in uncertain environments considering trade-offs between average and variance of risk.
method Developed bounds for mean and variance risk measures in Gaussian Process models and proposed AL algorithms for multi-task, multi-objective, and constrained optimization scenarios.
result Proposed AL algorithms effectively address the mean-variance trade-off in uncertain optimization scenarios.
New method tackles model uncertainty in stochastic control using Bayesian nonparametrics.
problem Model uncertainty in stochastic control problems.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach with Dirichlet process for unknown distributions, online learning, and Gaussian process surrogates.
result Demonstrates financial advantages of nonparametric Bayesian over parametric methods.
New method uses backward SDEs for deep learning uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Probabilistic machine learning with stochastic neural networks and stochastic optimal control.
result Effectiveness validated through numerical experiments.
Optimizes ellipsoids for uncertainty regions in parameter estimation.
problem Learning minimal volume uncertainty ellipsoids for parameter estimation.
method Differentiable optimization approach using neural networks to approximate optimal ellipsoids.
result Approximately computed ellipsoids are smaller and more accurate than existing methods.
We study an optimal liquidation problem under the ambiguity with respect to price impact parameters. Our main results show that the value function and the optimal trading strategy can be characterized by the solution to a semi-linear PDE with superlinear gradient, monotone generator and singular terminal value. We also…
In this paper we investigate a utility maximization problem with drift uncertainty in a multivariate continuous-time Black-Scholes type financial market which may be incomplete. We impose a constraint on the admissible strategies that prevents a pure bond investment and we include uncertainty by means of ellipsoidal un…
Bayesian Scattering offers a simple baseline for image data uncertainty.
problem Lack of interpretable, mathematically grounded uncertainty quantification methods for image data.
method Coupling wavelet scattering transform with a simple probabilistic head.
result Bayesian Scattering provides sensible uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
This paper considers mean-variance optimization under uncertainty, specifically when one desires a sparsified set of optimal portfolio weights. From the standpoint of a Bayesian investor, our approach produces a small portfolio from many potential assets while acknowledging uncertainty in asset returns and parameter es…