Economics tool predicts failure times in reliability systems.
problem Predicting optimal failure times in weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
method Using rational expectations to analyze and predict failure times in reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
result Different measures are optimal for predicting system failure depending on component failure distributions.
A new algorithm learns from failures to optimize under constraints efficiently.
problem Optimizing under unknown constraints with limited failure tolerance.
method Excursion search controls risk as a function of a failure budget.
result The algorithm achieves lower regret and uses failures budget more efficiently.
Robust algorithm for distributed optimization resistant to Byzantine failures.
problem Resilient optimization in the presence of unreliable agents.
method Temporal and spatial robust aggregation, gradient normalization.
result Convergence for strongly convex and non-convex functions.
We aim to predict and explain service failures in supply-chain networks, more precisely among last-mile pickup and delivery services to customers. We analyze a dataset of 500,000 services using (1) supervised classification with Random Forests, and (2) Association Rules. Our classifier reaches an average sensitivity of…
Study constructs balanced datasets for seismic failure prediction.
problem Imbalanced datasets limit machine learning performance in seismic failure prediction.
method Framework with three steps: GMF identification, probability density estimation, and sample transformation.
result Framework improves machine learning performance in seismic failure mode prediction.
New research shows Byzantine failures hurt generalization more than data poisoning in robust distributed learning.
problem Generalization in robust distributed learning algorithms under Byzantine failures vs. data poisoning.
method Algorithmic stability analysis of robust distributed learning algorithms.
result Byzantine failures yield strictly worse generalization rates than data poisoning.
Two BO methods improve reliability optimization for rare failures.
problem Maximizing reliability of designs subject to random perturbations.
method Bayesian optimization with Thompson sampling and knowledge gradient.
result Proposed methods outperform existing techniques in extreme failure probability scenarios.
Unified model predicts multi-mode failure with multi-sensor data.
problem Independent failure mode and RUL prediction ignores inherent relationship.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with Cox model, Gaussian process, and multinomial distributions.
result Robust uncertainty quantification and accurate prediction of multi-mode failure.
Applications in machine learning, optimization, and control require the sequential selection of a few system elements, such as sensors, data, or actuators, to optimize the system performance across multiple time steps. However, in failure-prone and adversarial environments, sensors get attacked, data get deleted, and a…
Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization, with hard computational problems.
problem Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization.
method Transformed into influence maximization-like form, with theoretical and practical implications.
result Optimal intervention is NP-hard and cannot be approximated to a constant factor in polynomial time.
One of the key challenges in predictive maintenance is to predict the impending downtime of an equipment with a reasonable prediction horizon so that countermeasures can be put in place. Classically, this problem has been posed in two different ways which are typically solved independently: (1) Remaining useful life (R…
Risk Advisor predicts and mitigates ML deployment failures.
problem Predicting and mitigating test-time failure risks of ML systems.
method Post-hoc meta-learner for estimating failure risks and uncertainties.
result Reliably predicts deployment-time failure risks across various ML models.
Proposes a deep neural network for early disk drive failure prediction.
problem Early prediction of disk drive failure using multivariate time series sensor data.
method Enriched features derived from sensor data through transformations, combined with ensemble learning and deep neural network architecture.
result Significantly improved classification accuracy in predicting disk drive failure.
Paper proposes a tensor data model for incomplete imaging data.
problem Prognostics models for incomplete imaging data.
method Supervised tensor dimension reduction with TTF supervision and optimization.
result Model effectively extracts low-dimensional features from incomplete data.
Framework predicts remaining useful life of DSH subsystems under unknown failure modes.
problem Predicting remaining useful life of DSH subsystems with unknown failure modes.
method Unsupervised framework using mixture of Gaussian regressions and Expectation-Maximization algorithm.
result Improved prediction accuracy and interpretability of RUL.
SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with GPU Data
problem Predicting failure time distribution functions under competing risks
method Structured Segmented Hazard Deep Neural Network (SSH-Net)
result Prediction accuracy validated through simulation studies and GPU data
DeepSIP predicts network failures' impact using CNN from syslog and traffic data.
problem Predicting service impact from network failures.
method Temporal multimodal CNN for predicting time to recovery and traffic loss.
result DeepSIP reduced prediction error by approximately 50%.
Machine learning predicts failure in brittle materials with high accuracy.
problem Predicting failure in brittle materials under repetitive loads.
method Phase-field model combined with supervised machine learning.
result Framework predicts failure with acceptable accuracy even in noisy data.
This work improves safety validation of autonomous vehicles by finding interpretable failures.
problem Finding interpretable failures of autonomous systems in simulation.
method Signal temporal logic expressions optimized for high likelihood and human interpretability.
result Our methodology finds more interpretable failures with higher likelihood compared to baseline approaches.
Given key performance indicators collected with fine granularity as time series, our aim is to predict and explain failures in storage environments. Although explainable predictive modeling based on spiky telemetry data is key in many domains, current approaches cannot tackle this problem. Deep learning methods suitabl…
The paper tackles model failure detection and refitting in real-world systems.
problem Real-world data often fails statistical models due to heterogeneity.
method Develops tools for detecting and identifying model failures and refitting to improve accuracy.
result Empirical and theoretical results show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Enhances PHM solutions by augmenting scarce multivariate time series data.
problem Data scarcity in failure prognostics.
method Extends autoregressive models for data augmentation.
result Significantly improves PHM solution performance.
Differentiable methods fail due to spectral issues in Jacobians.
problem Chaos-based failures in differentiable programming.
method Trace failures to the spectrum of Jacobians.
result Criteria for avoiding spectral failure in optimization.
Revisits PPO design choices, exposing failure modes and proposing alternatives.
problem Failure modes of standard PPO in new environments.
method Revisits standard PPO design choices, exposes failure modes, and proposes alternative approaches.
result Alternative design choices prevent failure modes in new environments.
Enhances patient failure prediction using dynamic survival models.
problem Lack of precise individual level prediction in conventional models.
method Developed counterfactual dynamic survival model (CDSM).
result Inflection point of estimated survival curves predicts patient failure time.
Optimizes search times by resetting agents when a threshold is reached.
problem Improving search efficiency in systems with thresholds.
method Develops a framework for correlated stochastic processes with threshold resetting.
result Optimal resetting can prevent larger losses and is applicable to various stochastic systems.
The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
problem Estimating the probability of a market failure involving multiple globally important banks.
method Multivariate Cox process across G-SIBs, deriving various theorems on market failure probabilities.
result The probability of a market failure increases with the number of G-SIBs and is inevitable if there are too many.
Deep neural networks improve AFT model for non-linear predictors.
problem Nonlinearity in predictors of AFT models.
method Apply DNNs to fit AFT models using Gehan-type loss and sub-sampling.
result DeepR-AFT outperforms parametric and semiparametric models.
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline which is concerned with the analysis and prediction of equipment health and performance. One of the key challenges in PHM is to accurately predict impending failures in the equipment. In recent years, solutions for failure prediction have evo…
New method avoids failures in physics-constrained systems using active learning.
problem Handling fatal failures in systems governed by physics constraints.
method Develops a novel active learning method that considers implicit physics constraints.
result Achieves zero-failure in composite fuselage assembly process without explicit failure regions.
Study uses satellite data to predict tailings dam collapse risk.
problem Detecting early signs of tailings dam instability.
method Spectral analysis of satellite InSAR displacement time series data.
result Algorithm detects risk milestones up to 5 months before dam collapse.
System predicts respiratory failure up to 8 hours early.
problem Early detection of respiratory failure in ICU patients.
method Machine learning on ICU patient monitoring data.
result System outperforms traditional clinical decision-making.
In survival analysis, estimating the failure time distribution is an important and difficult task, since usually the data is subject to censoring. Specifically, in this paper we consider current status data, a type of data where all of the observations are censored. The format of the data is such that the failure time …
This paper addresses the problem of evaluating learning systems in safety critical domains such as autonomous driving, where failures can have catastrophic consequences. We focus on two problems: searching for scenarios when learned agents fail and assessing their probability of failure. The standard method for agent e…
BAxUS optimizes high-dimensional functions adaptively, avoiding performance degradation and failure.
problem State-of-the-art HDBO methods degrade or fail with increasing dimensions.
method BAxUS uses nested random subspaces to adaptively optimize high-dimensional functions.
result BAxUS outperforms state-of-the-art methods across various applications.
Determining possible failure scenarios is a critical step in the evaluation of autonomous vehicle systems. Real-world vehicle testing is commonly employed for autonomous vehicle validation, but the costs and time requirements are high. Consequently, simulation-driven methods such as Adaptive Stress Testing (AST) have b…
Develops algorithms to optimize machine replacement schedules using operational data.
problem Optimizing machine replacement intervals when the lifetime distribution is unknown.
method Formulates as a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem and proposes Hoeffding- and Bernstein-based algorithms.
result Achieves optimal or near-optimal replacement intervals with minimal regret.
GE finds failures in autonomous systems without domain heuristics.
problem Finding failures in autonomous systems without domain-specific heuristics.
method Adaptive stress testing using go-explore (GE) algorithm.
result GE finds failures in scenarios other RL techniques cannot solve.
There are several distinct failure modes for overoptimization of systems on the basis of metrics. This occurs when a metric which can be used to improve a system is used to an extent that further optimization is ineffective or harmful, and is sometimes termed Goodhart's Law. This class of failure is often poorly unders…
Study identifies failure modes of machine learning models in out-of-distribution settings.
problem Machine learning models fail to generalize well to new, unseen data.
method Theoretical study of gradient-descent-trained linear classifiers on easy-to-learn tasks, followed by experiments on modern neural networks.
result Two failure modes of spurious correlations are uncovered: geometric and statistical.
We develop a new method to estimate failure probabilities in complex systems.
problem Estimating failure probabilities in safety-critical autonomous systems is challenging due to the rarity of failures and large state spaces.
method We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm that minimizes forward Kullback-Leibler divergence and uses Markov score ascent methods.
result Our method provides more accurate failure probability estimates than existing techniques.
Already before systems malfunction one has to know if hardware components will fail in near future in order to counteract in time. Thus, unplanned downtime is ought to be avoided. In medical imaging, maximizing the system's uptime is crucial for patients' health and healthcare provider's daily business. We aim to predi…
Paper tackles optimal policy learning with observational data in multi-action scenarios.
problem Optimal policy learning in multi-action settings with observational data.
method Review of estimation approaches, analysis of risk preference, discussion of potential failures.
result Average regret of a policy with multi-valued treatment is contingent on the decision-maker's attitude towards risk.
Proposes a federated learning approach for RUL prediction from nonparametric degradation and failure signals.
problem Cost-effective RUL prediction from limited, non-shared CM signals with unknown parametric forms.
method Joint modeling of nonlinear degradation signals and failure events using federated learning.
result Superior RUL prediction compared to alternatives, validated through simulations and real data.
Interpretable survival analysis improves heart failure risk prediction.
problem Improving heart failure risk prediction using survival analysis.
method Survival stacking, ControlBurn, Explainable Boosting Machines.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance and provides novel insights.
New method finds failures in high-fidelity simulators with fewer steps.
problem Finding failures in high-fidelity simulators is expensive and impractical.
method Adaptive stress testing with backward algorithm adaptation from low-fidelity to high-fidelity.
result Significantly fewer high-fidelity simulation steps needed to find failures.
This paper proposes a cascading failure mitigation strategy based on Reinforcement Learning (RL) method. Firstly, the principles of RL are introduced. Then, the Multi-Stage Cascading Failure (MSCF) problem is presented and its challenges are investigated. The problem is then tackled by the RL based on DC-OPF (Optimal P…
BAMS uses Bayesian sampling to discover AV failures more efficiently and accurately.
problem Discovering potential failure cases in autonomous vehicles efficiently and accurately.
method Bayesian adaptive multifidelity sampling (BAMS) prioritizes exploration of low performance regions.
result BAMS discovers 10 times more issues than traditional methods with narrower rate estimates.