Study optimal adjustment sets for causal policies with hidden variables.
problem Estimating dynamic treatment regimes with hidden variables.
method Developed criteria for graphs without hidden variables to compare estimators, extended to dynamic policies and hidden variables.
result Existence and computation of optimal minimal and globally optimal adjustment sets.
The method of covariate adjustment is often used for estimation of population average treatment effects in observational studies. Graphical rules for determining all valid covariate adjustment sets from an assumed causal graphical model are well known. Restricting attention to causal linear models, a recent article der…
Optimizes treatment duration to maximize quality-adjusted lifetime.
problem Balancing risks and benefits in clinical decision making.
method Proposes a weighted estimating equation to adjust for confounding and informative censoring, and a nonparametric estimator for mean counterfactual quality-adjusted lifetime.
result Shows the optimal time for percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy insertion in ALS patients.
LOAD discovers optimal adjustments locally for scalable causal inference.
problem Scalable causal inference for unknown causal graphs.
method Local Optimal Adjustments Discovery (LOAD) method.
result LOAD combines local and global approaches for efficient and accurate causal effect estimation.
A new approach optimizes weights in DLP for better risk-adjusted performance.
problem Optimizing time-varying weights in Double Linear Policy (DLP) for better risk-adjusted performance.
method Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) framework to maximize risk-adjusted returns while enforcing constraints.
result Empirical results show improved risk-adjusted performance and drawdown control.
New method estimates treatment effects from high dimensional data.
problem Estimating treatment effects from high dimensional data with confounders.
method Generative modeling approach to backdoor adjustment in variational inference.
result Empirically, estimates interventional likelihood in high dimensional settings.
New method averages SGD iterates to achieve adjustable regularization.
problem Overfitting in machine learning models.
method Averaging SGD iterates for regularized solutions.
result Obtain regularized solutions without tuning parameters.
Efficient adjustment sets found for cost-minimized causal estimations.
problem Estimating interventional means with minimum cost in causal graphical models.
method Defined cost-adjustment sets, constructed flow networks, and used maximum flow algorithms.
result Minimum cost optimal adjustment sets exist and can be found efficiently.
This paper considers the problem of optimal liquidation of a position in a risky security in a financial market, where price evolution are risky and trades have an impact on price as well as uncertainty in the filling orders. The problem is formulated as a continuous time stochastic optimal control problem aiming at ma…
We present an actor-critic framework for MDPs where the objective is the variance-adjusted expected return. Our critic uses linear function approximation, and we extend the concept of compatible features to the variance-adjusted setting. We present an episodic actor-critic algorithm and show that it converges almost su…
Metaheuristics optimize portfolios with pre-assignment and margin trading for better risk-adjusted returns.
problem Maximizing returns while minimizing risk in portfolio optimization.
method Incorporates pre-assignment constraints and margin trading strategies using Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization.
result Metaheuristic-based portfolio optimization yields superior risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional methods.
Modern statistical inference tasks often require iterative optimization methods to compute the solution. Convergence analysis from an optimization viewpoint only informs us how well the solution is approximated numerically but overlooks the sampling nature of the data. In contrast, recognizing the randomness in the dat…
HASSO improves SO algorithms by dynamically tuning hyperparameters.
problem Inefficiency of hyperparameter tuning for SO algorithms.
method HASSO is a self-adjusting SO algorithm that dynamically tunes its own hyperparameters.
result HASSO enhances the performance of various SO algorithms across different test problems.
Paper introduces Market-adaptive Ratio for better portfolio management.
problem Traditional risk-adjusted ratios fail to account for bull and bear markets.
method Integrates ρ parameter and uses reinforcement learning to adjust portfolio allocations dynamically. result Market-adaptive Ratio outperforms traditional ratios in bull and bear markets.
b-LOAD extends local causal discovery with prior knowledge, improving causal effect estimation.
problem Local causal discovery struggles in data-scarce settings due to uncertainty and incomplete neighborhoods.
method b-LOAD incorporates prior knowledge directly into local structure learning, using Meek's rules to refine discovery.
result b-LOAD refines the admissible equivalence class and enlarges identifiable causal queries, improving causal effect estimation.
Combines MALA and Adam for efficient uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
method Integrates Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) with momentum-based optimization (Adam) for efficient sampling from posterior distributions.
result The algorithm approximates the Gibbs posterior in total variation distance and efficiently quantifies epistemic uncertainty.
RL accelerates portfolio optimization and option pricing by dynamically adjusting preconditioner sizes.
problem Large linear systems in portfolio optimization and option pricing lead to slow convergence.
method Reinforcement Learning (RL) dynamically adjusts block-preconditioner sizes to accelerate convergence.
result RL-driven solver significantly reduces computational cost and accelerates convergence.
In this paper we investigate the relationship between Funding Value Adjustment (FVA) and Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR). FVA is defined in a consistent way with NSFR such that the new framework of FVA monitors the costs due to keeping NSFR at an acceptable level, as well. In addition, the problem of choosing the optim…
Enhances flexibility in data reweighting with optimal transport and maximum entropy principles.
problem Adapting empirical distributions to predefined constraints on moments, tail behavior, etc.
method Nonparametric distributional constraints, maximum entropy principle, optimal transport.
result Maximum entropy weight adjusted empirical distribution close to a specified distribution in optimal transport metric.
This paper investigates calculations of robust funding valuation adjustment (FVA) for over the counter (OTC) derivatives under distributional uncertainty using Wasserstein distance as the ambiguity measure. Wrong way funding risk can be characterized via the robust FVA formulation. The simpler dual formulation of the r…
Much of the focus in machine learning research is placed in creating new architectures and optimization methods, but the overall loss function is seldom questioned. This paper interprets machine learning from a multi-objective optimization perspective, showing the limitations of the default linear combination of loss f…
Most sales applications are characterized by competition and limited demand information. For successful pricing strategies, frequent price adjustments as well as anticipation of market dynamics are crucial. Both effects are challenging as competitive markets are complex and computations of optimized pricing adjustments…
We derive variance-optimal hedging strategies for SABR and rough Bergomi models.
problem Finding efficient hedging strategies in lognormal SABR and rough Bergomi models.
method Analytic expressions for variance-optimal hedging strategies and mean-square hedging errors.
result The variance-optimal hedging strategy in SABR coincides with Delta adjustment.
Turnover-adjusted IR is always lower than classic IR, suggesting managers can improve performance by limiting turnover.
problem The classic relationship between IR and its determinants does not account for turnover costs.
method Mathematical derivations and simulations considering volatility of information coefficient and portfolio turnover.
result Turnover-adjusted IR is lower and managers can improve performance by limiting turnover.
When the in-sample Sharpe ratio is obtained by optimizing over a k-dimensional parameter space, it is a biased estimator for what can be expected on unseen data (out-of-sample). We derive (1) an unbiased estimator adjusting for both sources of bias: noise fit and estimation error. We then show (2) how to use the adjust…
Learning models of artificial intelligence can nowadays perform very well on a large variety of tasks. However, in practice different task environments are best handled by different learning models, rather than a single, universal, approach. Most non-trivial models thus require the adjustment of several to many learnin…
We consider an optimal stochastic impulse control problem over an infinite time horizon motivated by a model of irreversible investment choices with fixed adjustment costs. By employing techniques of viscosity solutions and relying on semiconvexity arguments, we prove that the value function is a classical solution to …
Unified framework combines views and optimization for better portfolio management.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights with dynamic adjustment based on volatility.
method Dynamic sliding window adjusting horizon, factor estimates, BL posterior returns, and weights over time.
result Outperforms dynamic mean-variance optimization without BL views, providing stronger downside risk control.
Estimates personalized treatment response curves using covariates.
problem Flexible estimation of personalized treatment response curves.
method Sieve based nonparametric estimator of smoothed regimen-response curve function.
result Asymptotic linearity and undersmoothing criteria for efficient estimation.
Optimal transport method rejects new classes and adjusts class ratios for open set domain adaptation.
problem Handling new classes in target domains with distribution shifts.
method Two-step optimal transport approach: reject new classes first, then adjust class ratios.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in open set domain adaptation.
This study explains and mitigates inflated returns and turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
problem Inflated returns and excessive turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
method KKT-based interpretation of portfolio decisions as ranking over adjusted scores, empirical evaluation of stabilization mechanisms.
result Realistic output constraints and portfolio-level turnover control improve SPO-based strategies.
Analysis of momentum methods on quadratic models, showing SGD's superiority.
problem Analysis of stochastic gradient algorithms with momentum on quadratic models.
method Inspired by random matrix theory, exact characterization of loss values.
result Stochastic heavy-ball momentum does not improve over SGD in the strongly convex setting.
Optimal preconditioning improves Langevin sampling efficiency.
problem Improving sampling efficiency in high-dimensional target distributions.
method Optimal preconditioning using Fisher information, applied to MALA.
result Adaptive MCMC scheme significantly outperforms other methods.
DOPE efficiently estimates ATE with complex covariates.
problem Efficient estimation of ATE from complex covariates.
method Proposed DOPE framework for efficient adjustment.
result DOPE retains efficiency even with highly predictive covariates.
This paper improves MDS visualization by adjusting Wasserstein distances for heavy-tailed data.
problem Enhancing Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) for better pattern recognition with heavy-tailed distributions.
method Introduces Max-D-SW, a metric adjustment of Max-Sliced Wasserstein distance that aggregates over orthonormal bases.
result Max-D-SW provides a clear numerical advantage in MDS outcomes, especially for heavy-tailed distributions.
DeepAries optimizes rebalancing intervals and asset allocations for better portfolio performance.
problem Fixed rebalancing intervals lead to unnecessary transactions and poor risk-adjusted returns.
method Adaptive deep reinforcement learning with Transformer state encoder and PPO.
result DeepAries outperforms traditional strategies in risk-adjusted returns, transaction costs, and drawdowns.
A new decentralized Bayesian learning method using Metropolis-adjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
problem Decentralized Bayesian learning with uncertainty quantification.
method Metropolis-adjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a decentralized federated learning setting.
result Theoretical guarantees and numerical effectiveness of the method on non-convex problems.
Develops a new flexible grid trading model using ANN and SSO.
problem Improving automated trading strategies in financial markets.
method Combines SSO algorithm with ANN for optimizing trading parameters.
result Provides a robust and efficient trading model with better returns.
Discovering the causal effect of a decision is critical to nearly all forms of decision-making. In particular, it is a key quantity in drug development, in crafting government policy, and when implementing a real-world machine learning system. Given only observational data, confounders often obscure the true causal eff…
Investor skill levels affect optimal portfolio size, study shows.
problem Optimal portfolio size for different skill levels of investors.
method Mathematical methods to study annual and continuous portfolio diversification, regression analysis.
result Strong investors should hold concentrated portfolios, poor investors should hold diversified portfolios.
In the aftermath of the 2007 global financial crisis, banks started reflecting into derivative pricing the cost of capital and collateral funding through XVA metrics. Here XVA is a catch-all acronym whereby X is replaced by a letter such as C for credit, D for debt, F for funding, K for capital and so on, and VA stands…
A method estimates causal parameters using a latent variable recovery.
problem Estimating causal parameters in contexts with multiple causes and unobserved confounding.
method Substitute adjustment via recovery of latent variables.
result Substitute adjustment estimates adjusted regression parameters under certain conditions.
Formula adjusts steady-state models for control confounding.
problem Learning steady-state models from operational data can be flawed due to control confounding.
method Derives a formula to adjust for control confounding using structural dynamical causal models.
result Estimates a causal steady-state model from closed-loop operational data.
Automatically adjusts model size for continual Gaussian processes.
problem Determining optimal model size for incremental data.
method Automatic adjustment of model size during continual learning.
result Near-optimal performance across various datasets without hyperparameter tuning.
This article provides a new representation for pricing adjustments in derivatives.
problem Derivative pricing adjustments and XVA (Expected Value of All Risk) models.
method An Ito SDE/parabolic PDE framework to encapsulate pricing adjustments.
result A new representation that encompasses various past adjustments.
Confounding bias, missing data, and selection bias are three common obstacles to valid causal inference in the data sciences. Covariate adjustment is the most pervasive technique for recovering casual effects from confounding bias. In this paper, we introduce a covariate adjustment formulation for controlling confoundi…
Two-stage TMLE reduces bias and improves efficiency in CRTs.
problem Differential outcome measurement and imbalance in baseline predictors in CRTs.
method Two-stage targeted minimum loss-based estimator (TMLE) to adjust for baseline covariates.
result Our approach nearly eliminates bias due to differential outcome measurement.
High quality risk adjustment in health insurance markets weakens insurer incentives to engage in inefficient behavior to attract lower-cost enrollees. We propose a novel methodology based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to improve risk adjustment by clustering diagnostic codes into risk groups optimal for health ex…