This paper improves operational risk modeling by selecting better loss severity distributions.
problem Inconsistent regulatory capital calculations due to changing loss severity distribution families.
method Presented truncation probability estimates and a consistent quantile scoring function for selection criteria. Also, recommended collecting loss frequencies below the minimum reporting threshold.
result More stable regulatory capital calculations through better selection of loss severity distributions.
Study shows how information loss and operation loss are related in feature representations.
problem Understanding the relationship between information loss and operation loss in feature representations.
method Analyzes the interplay between weak information loss and operation loss in continuous representations.
result Specific forms of vanishing information loss imply vanishing MPE loss in classification.
We propose a dynamical model for the estimation of Operational Risk in banking institutions. Operational Risk is the risk that a financial loss occurs as the result of failed processes. Examples of operational losses are the ones generated by internal frauds, human errors or failed transactions. In order to encompass t…
Self-test loss functions improve data-driven modeling of weak-form operators and gradient flows.
problem Challenges in selecting test functions for data-driven modeling involving weak-form operators and gradient flows.
method Introducing self-test loss functions that depend on unknown parameters and are quadratic.
result Self-test loss functions conserve energy for gradient flows and coincide with log-likelihood ratios for stochastic differential equations.
This paper develops a dynamic internal fraud model for operational losses in retail banking. It considers public operational losses arising from internal fraud in retail banking within a group of international banks. Additionally, the model takes into account internal factors such as the ethical quality of workers and …
Model predicts operational risk using HMMs with economic covariates.
problem Predicting operational risk losses with time-dependent structures and economic covariates.
method Hidden Markov Models extended to multivariate observations with an auxiliary economic variable.
result Calibration results show relevance of including economic covariates.
Proposes a new regularization technique for neural networks using elliptic operators.
problem Improving model behavior in underrepresented data regions.
method Modifies the empirical risk minimization objective to minimize an elliptic operator over the data domain.
result The proposed regularization technique anticipates error behavior outside the training set using existing elliptic operator theory.
Paper explores challenges in training PINNs and loss landscape effects.
problem Challenges in training Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) due to loss landscape issues.
method Examined gradient-based optimizers Adam, L-BFGS, and their combination Adam+L-BFGS, and introduced NysNewton-CG (NNCG).
result Adam+L-BFGS outperforms other optimizers, and NysNewton-CG significantly improves PINN performance.
New loss functions based on f-divergences improve language model performance.
problem Improving multiclass classification and language modeling performance.
method Constructing new convex loss functions using f-divergences and deriving an operator for computation.
result The α-divergence loss function with α=1.5 performs well across various tasks. Most of the banks' operational risk internal models are based on loss pooling in risk and business line categories. The parameters and outputs of operational risk models are sensitive to the pooling of the data and the choice of the risk classification. In a simple model, we establish the link between the number of ris…
Efficient algorithm for evaluating hierarchical classification methods at multiple operating points.
problem Evaluating hierarchical classification methods at multiple operating points.
method Efficient algorithm to produce operating characteristic curves for any method that assigns scores to every class in the hierarchy.
result Top-down classifiers are dominated by a naive flat softmax classifier across the entire operating range.
AMORE uses neural operators to efficiently predict multiple thermochemical states in stiff chemical kinetics.
problem Efficiently integrating stiff chemical kinetics systems to reduce computational cost.
method Developed AMORE, a framework of adaptive multi-output operator network with two adaptive loss functions.
result Demonstrated improved accuracy and efficiency in predicting thermochemical states from initial conditions.
We prove that the empirical risk of most well-known loss functions factors into a linear term aggregating all labels with a term that is label free, and can further be expressed by sums of the loss. This holds true even for non-smooth, non-convex losses and in any RKHS. The first term is a (kernel) mean operator --the …
Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not available for the distributions typically used in operational risk. However with modern comput…
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above a threshold. Fitting data reported above a constant threshold is a well known and studied problem. However, in practice, the losses are scaled for business and other factors before the fitting and thus the threshold is varying across the scaled data sample. A report…
This paper re-visits the spectral method for learning latent variable models defined in terms of observable operators. We give a new perspective on the method, showing that operators can be recovered by minimizing a loss defined on a finite subset of the domain. A non-convex optimization similar to the spectral method …
Operational risk is the risk relative to monetary losses caused by failures of bank internal processes due to heterogeneous causes. A dynamical model including both spontaneous generation of losses and generation via interactions between different processes is presented; the efforts made by the bank to avoid the occurr…
We introduce a statistical model for operational losses based on heavy-tailed distributions and bipartite graphs, which captures the event type and business line structure of operational risk data. The model explicitly takes into account the Pareto tails of losses and the heterogeneous dependence structures between the…
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of operational risk cannot be base…
Generative operators solve many convex problems with minimal parameters.
problem Worst-case parameter bounds limit the practical use of neural operators.
method Developed generative equilibrium operators (GEOs) using realizable finite-dimensional layers.
result GEOs can uniformly approximate solutions to convex optimization problems with logarithmic growth in parameters.
We study the asymptotic behavior of the difference between the values at risk VaR(L) and VaR(L+S) for heavy tailed random variables L and S for application in sensitivity analysis of quantitative operational risk management within the framework of the advanced measurement approach of Basel II (and III). Here L describe…
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challeng…
Gradient descent on neural nets often operates at the Edge of Stability, where loss behavior is complex but loss decreases over time.
problem Understanding the optimization dynamics of neural networks at the Edge of Stability.
method Empirical demonstration of gradient descent behavior in neural network training.
result Gradient descent on neural networks typically occurs at the Edge of Stability, where loss behavior is non-monotonic but loss decreases over time.
In this paper we study a class of insurance products where the policy holder has the option to insure k of its annual Operational Risk losses in a horizon of T years. This involves a choice of k out of T years in which to apply the insurance policy coverage by making claims against losses in the given year. The…
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of possible extreme los…
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss…
To quantify the operational risk capital charge under the current regulatory framework for banking supervision, referred to as Basel II, many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach. There are many modeling issues that should be resolved to use the approach in practice. In this paper we review the quantitative metho…
In this paper, we address the problem of embedded feature selection for ranking on top of the list problems. We pose this problem as a regularized empirical risk minimization with p-norm push loss function (p=∞) and sparsity inducing regularizers. We leverage the issues related to this challenging optimization…
A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank's processes, the spontaneous generation of losses via a noise term and the efforts made by the bank …
According to the Loss Distribution Approach, the operational risk of a bank is determined as 99.9% quantile of the respective loss distribution, covering unexpected severe events. The 99.9% quantile can be considered a tail event. As supported by the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan Theorem, tail events exceeding some high thr…
This paper aims to provide a better understanding of a symmetric loss. First, we emphasize that using a symmetric loss is advantageous in the balanced error rate (BER) minimization and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) maximization from corrupted labels. Second, we prove general theoretical p…
With the recent advancement in the deep learning technologies such as CNNs and GANs, there is significant improvement in the quality of the images reconstructed by deep learning based super-resolution (SR) techniques. In this work, we propose a robust loss function based on the preservation of edges obtained by the Can…
SON learns SPDE solutions and uncertainty from noisy data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in SPDEs with unknown model uncertainties.
method Combining DeepONet and SNNs, SON models stochasticity and predicts uncertainty.
result SON accurately captures solution structure and quantifies predictive uncertainty.
Framework explains how dual deep networks learn features from unlabeled data.
problem Understanding self-supervised learning with dual deep networks.
method Theoretical framework and hierarchical latent tree model.
result Deep ReLU networks learn latent variables through contrastive SSL.
In the following paper we present a new type of optimization algorithms adapted for neural network training. These algorithms are based upon sequential operator splitting technique for some associated dynamical systems. Furthermore, we investigate through numerical simulations the empirical rate of convergence of these…
We analyze the optimization landscape of α-loss in logistic models.
problem Optimization landscape of α-loss in logistic models.
method Tools from strictly-locally-quasi-convex functions and geometric techniques.
result Evolution of optimization landscape with respect to α.
New method improves training of PINNs for PDEs by adding noisy supervision terms.
problem Slow or failed convergence of PINNs on challenging PDEs.
method Operator preconditioning using Feynman-Kac supervision and non-asymptotic error bounds.
result Non-asymptotic error bounds for FK-PINNs, showing improved performance over standard PINNs.
The study analyzes a model for aggregate losses with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
problem Analyzing aggregate loss models with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
method The study uses a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2) and a Markov renewal process to model the inter-losses times. Severities are modeled using a heavy-tailed, double-Pareto Lognormal distribution. The model is estimated via direct maximization of the likelihood function.
result The model with dependence and overdispersion in inter-losses times leads to higher capital charges compared to a Poisson process.
A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank using only internal loss data, and takes into account in a simple and realistic way the correlations among different processe…
Building upon recent advances in entropy-regularized optimal transport, and upon Fenchel duality between measures and continuous functions , we propose a generalization of the logistic loss that incorporates a metric or cost between classes. Unlike previous attempts to use optimal transport distances for learning, our …
New method approximates M-estimator and predictions without solving fixed-point equations.
problem Characterize behavior of M-estimator and predictions in single index models.
method Develops data-driven observable adjustments to proximal operators.
result Empirical distributions of M-estimator and predictions are approximated without solving fixed-point equations.
PRISMA uses PDE residuals for fast, robust, and accurate inference.
problem Slow gradient-based optimization and instability in PDE residual-based methods.
method Integrates PDE residuals directly into the model's architecture via attention mechanisms in the spectral domain.
result Competitive accuracy with significantly lower inference costs and faster speeds.
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above some threshold. This paper studies the impact of ignoring data truncation on the 0.999 quantile of the annual loss distribution for operational risk for a broad range of distribution parameters and truncation levels. Loss frequency and severity are modelled by the P…
Operational risk models commonly employ maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to fit loss data to heavy-tailed distributions. Yet several desirable properties of MLE (e.g. asymptotic normality) are generally valid only for large sample-sizes, a situation rarely encountered in operational risk. In this paper, we study how…
Many banks adopt the Loss Distribution Approach to quantify the operational risk capital charge under Basel II requirements. It is common practice to estimate the capital charge using the 0.999 quantile of the annual loss distribution, calculated using point estimators of the frequency and severity distribution paramet…
Graph-based framework for provably robust adversarial training.
problem Adversarial robustness of machine learning models.
method Formulates adversarial robustness as loss minimization with a Lipschitz constraint, using graph-based discretization and primal-dual algorithms.
result Establishes a connection between elliptic operators and adversarial learning, and proves fundamental lower bounds on adversarial sensitivity.
Study visualizes actor-critic loss landscapes for inventory optimization.
problem Difficulties in solving multi-store dynamic inventory control problems.
method Low-dimensional visualizations of actor loss function.
result Loss landscapes favor optimal policies in reinforcement learning.
The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks ve…