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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,181 papers · 148 categories

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125251376501 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for onset prediction

Natural language processing predicts AKI onset in ICU patients.

problem Early detection of AKI in ICU patients to improve outcomes.
method Clinical notes were processed to generate word and concept embeddings. Five classifiers and a deep learning model were used to predict AKI.
result The best model achieved an AUC of 0.779 for predicting AKI onset.

Adversarial learning improves music transcription accuracy.

problem Conditional independence of labels in deep learning models limits transcription performance.
method Adversarial training scheme operating on time-frequency representations to reduce inter-label dependencies.
result Adversarial learning reduces error rate and increases model confidence.

DeepAISE predicts sepsis onset with high accuracy and low false alarms.

problem Early prediction of sepsis in ICU patients to improve clinical situational awareness.
method Recurrent neural survival model that combines clinical criteria and treatment policies.
result DeepAISE produces the most accurate predictions (AUC=0.90 and 0.87) and lowest false alarm rates (FAR=0.20 and 0.26) compared to baseline models.

Method predicts PAF episodes up to 15 minutes in advance from ECGs.

problem Predicting Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation (PAF) from ECGs.
method Feature extraction of ECGs as multi-variate time series, kernel similarity-based classification.
result Comparable classification accuracy with state-of-the-art methods, predictive up to 15 minutes.

Study uses high-frequency data to predict ruble depreciation during crisis.

problem Predicting ruble depreciation during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
method Uses intraday high-frequency data (google searches and implied volatility) to model exchange rate fluctuations.
result Implied volatility is more effective than attention in predicting ruble depreciation.

A system is presented that segments, clusters and predicts musical audio in an unsupervised manner, adjusting the number of (timbre) clusters instantaneously to the audio input. A sequence learning algorithm adapts its structure to a dynamically changing clustering tree. The flow of the system is as follows: 1) segment…

2015-02-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Method detects critical events in complex systems by learning latent causal structure.

problem Detecting onset of epileptic seizures, customer churn, or pandemics from hidden causal interactions.
method A machine learning method that learns an optimal feature representation from powers of the empirical covariance or precision matrix.
result Proves structural consistency and demonstrates competitive results in seizure and churn prediction.

Machine learning predicts synchronization transitions in unknown systems.

problem Predicting synchronization transitions in systems with unknown equations.
method Developed a 'parameter-aware' machine learning scheme using reservoir computing or echo state networks.
result Machine learning accurately predicts synchronization transitions, including hysteresis loops.

New method synthesizes piano training data, improving transcription performance.

problem Lack of large piano datasets limits note onset transcription models.
method Synthesizes arbitrary training data, models piano dynamics, avoids disentanglement problem.
result Achieves good transcription performance on MAPS dataset and excellent generalization.

The paper studies phase transitions in Information Bottleneck for representation learning.

problem Understanding the behavior of compression and prediction terms in IB objective.
method Studied phase transitions in IB objective using second-order calculus of variations and Fisher information matrix.
result IB phase transitions correspond to learning new classes and are related to maximum correlation between input and target orthogonal to the learned representation.

Study uses ML to predict cancer patient mortality from FN onset.

problem Predicting mortality in cancer patients with FN to improve survival.
method Multi-domain machine learning models using HCUP data.
result Clinical diagnoses have highest predictive power for FN mortality.

BoXHED boosts hazard estimation for dynamic health risk scores.

problem Analyzing time-varying health vitals for disease onset prediction.
method Gradient boosting for nonparametric hazard function estimation with time-dependent covariates.
result Novel interaction effects among risk factors identified in cardiovascular disease onset data.

Study predicts when ALS patients will lose speech, swallowing, etc. based on covariates.

problem Predicting when ALS patients will experience significant functional decline.
method Multi-event survival analysis, covariate-based models.
result Covariate-based models outperform Kaplan-Meier estimator in predicting time-to-event outcomes.

Investor attention predicts global equity market volatility during Ukraine invasion.

problem Predicting global equity market volatility during geopolitical events.
method Event-specific attention indices based on Google Trends, analyzed across 51 global equity markets.
result Investor attention significantly predicts volatility in countries with higher economic openness to Russia and closer to it.

Method identifies financial rogue waves close to their onset.

problem Identifying extreme financial events close to their onset.
method Analogy between rogue waves in optics and financial volatility, using Schrödinger equation with potential shaped by Kerr nonlinearity.
result Numerical gradient spikes at the onset of extreme financial events.

GMMSEQ clusters AE data streams, identifying cluster onsets and growth.

problem Clustering unlabeled AE data with onsets and growth information.
method Modified Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) with an objective function for AE timestamps.
result GMMSEQ provides better cluster characterization than standard methods.

Liver transplant patients have a 25% chance of developing diabetes within 5 years.

problem Predicting new onset diabetes after liver transplant to improve patient care.
method Comparison of time-to-event prediction models and classifiers, including regularized Cox proportional-hazards model.
result Regularized Cox proportional-hazards model achieved high Concordance Index of 0.863.

Deep learning detects sepsis early, improving patient outcomes.

problem Improving timeliness of sepsis detection in various healthcare settings.
method Deep learning model on electronic health records, combining CNN and LSTM networks.
result Model performance ranges from 0.856 to 0.756 AUROC, detecting sepsis up to 24 hours in advance.

Paper compares neural networks and classical statistics for dementia prediction, highlighting interpretability of classical methods.

problem Tackles the challenge of interpreting risk factors for dementia prediction.
method Compares neural networks and classical statistics for dementia prediction.
result Classical statistics provide clearer interpretation of risk factors compared to neural networks.

Neural network predicts cardiovascular events from EHRs with high accuracy.

problem Predicting onset of cardiovascular diseases from electronic health records.
method Multi-task gated recurrent units with attention mechanism.
result Model outperforms clinical risk scores in predicting stroke and myocardial infarction.

Study investigates how machine learning models degrade over time, leading to patient safety issues.

problem Overtime degradation of machine learning models in clinical settings.
method Used MIMIC-IV dataset to train models replicating commercial approaches, observing and analyzing degradation over a decade.
result An RNN model built on Epic features degrades from 0.729 AUC to 0.525 AUC over a decade, highlighting technical and clinical drift as root causes.

Paper proposes a graph neural network for accurate long-term ILI prediction.

problem Limited long-term prediction performance and spatio-temporal dependency in existing models.
method Cross-location attention based graph neural network (Cola-GNN) for time series embeddings and location aware attentions.
result Proposed method shows strong predictive performance and interpretable results for long-term epidemic predictions.

More than two thirds of mental health problems have their onset during childhood or adolescence. Identifying children at risk for mental illness later in life and predicting the type of illness is not easy. We set out to develop a platform to define subtypes of childhood social-emotional development using longitudinal,…

2016-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Model predicts epileptic seizures by detecting preictal state using wavelet transform and PCA.

problem Predicting epileptic seizures before onset.
method Common spatial pattern filtering, wavelet transform for preprocessing, PCA for feature extraction, SVM for classification.
result Average sensitivity of 93.1% for 84 seizures in 23 subjects.

Generative adversarial networks enhance risk prediction in EHRs.

problem Limited labeled data in EHRs for deep learning risk prediction.
method ehrGAN, a modified GAN, generates realistic EHR data for semi-supervised learning.
result Significant improvements in classification tasks with generated data over baselines.

PliableBVS extends Bayesian lasso for modeling interactions with modifying variables.

problem Modeling interactions between large and small sets of variables, especially in omics studies.
method Bayesian variable selection with spike-and-slab priors and hierarchical structure.
result PliableBVS outperforms pliable lasso in identifying active main and interaction effects.

Bayesian nonparametric model predicts user activity and intervention success.

problem Predicting user activity and intervention success in online experiments.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach to model user heterogeneity and derive user activity predictions.
result The proposed method outperforms existing approaches in predicting user activity and intervention success.

Sparse point observations can provide useful local constraints, but their benefit for radar-like fields depends on the training loss, uncertainty representation, and how observation support is encoded in the model.

problem Improving dense radar-field forecasts with sparse point observations
method A multimodal graph neural network nowcasting system over the Nordic radar domain
result Each source improves a different part of the forecast problem