A system estimates delayed context for online scoring using convex optimization.
problem Estimating agent scores with delayed context information.
method Online convex game between agent and system; leveraging correlation function.
result Error in score estimate is small if online convex game has low regret.
Bias and heterogeneity in peer assessment can lead to the issue of unfair scoring in the educational field. To deal with this problem, we propose a reference ranking method for an online peer assessment system using HodgeRank. Such a scheme provides instructors with an objective scoring reference based on mathematics.
Paper optimizes combining expert predictions using CRPS loss.
problem Optimizing combining expert predictions in online learning.
method Combines probabilistic forecasts using CRPS loss function in the prediction with expert advice framework.
result Time-independent upper bound for the regret of the Vovk's aggregating algorithm using CRPS as a loss function is obtained.
A new method calibrates forecasts without sacrificing expertise.
problem Forecasters' calibration scores can be manipulated to appear expert.
method Deterministic and stochastic online procedures to calibrate forecasts.
result Calibration can be achieved without losing expertise.
Paper introduces a method for continual learning using online leverage scores.
problem Avoiding forgetting and interference of previous knowledge in continual learning.
method Uses statistical leverage scores to measure data importance and a frequent directions approach for online continual learning.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in avoiding catastrophic forgetting and computational efficiency.
The paper tackles online learning with expert predictions using only peer feedback.
problem Lack of direct feedback on expert losses in online learning.
method Proposes a peer prediction approach with a carefully designed score function to estimate losses.
result Shows sufficient conditions for bounded regret using the peer score function.
Study optimizes scoring rules for incentivizing agent's information gathering in online settings.
problem Optimizing incentives for agents to acquire information in online settings.
method Designing a sample-efficient algorithm that tailors the UCB algorithm to the strategic agent's model.
result Achieves sublinear T 2 / 3 T^{2/3} T 2/3 -regret after T T T iterations, independent of the number of states. Paper introduces a fast, robust, scalable method for detecting changes in data streams.
problem Detecting changes in data streams efficiently and reliably.
method Bayesian online changepoint detection with provable robustness and scalability.
result The proposed method is more than 10 times faster than previous approaches and provides provable robustness.
Paper improves online time series forecasting by combining natural gradient and robust t-distribution.
problem Online time series forecasting challenges in rapidly adapting to evolving data.
method Reframed neural network optimization as a parameter filtering problem, using natural gradient and Student's t likelihood.
result Natural Score-driven Replay (NatSR) achieves stronger forecasting performance than state-of-the-art methods.
Robust quickest change detection method for unknown score functions.
problem Detecting changes in data streams with unknown pre- and post-change distributions.
method Selects least-favorable distributions and robustifies score-based detection algorithm.
result Demonstrates improved performance in simulations.
Optimal sampling reduces power grid data analysis costs.
problem Efficient online analysis of high-speed, correlated IoT data.
method D-optimality criterion-based sampling methods combining Bernoulli and leverage score sampling.
result Leverage score sampling improves computational efficiency and outperforms benchmarks.
Paper characterizes minimax regret rates for online ranking with top-k feedback.
problem Analyzing online ranking with partial feedback.
method Developed techniques from partial monitoring to characterize minimax regret rates.
result Full characterization of minimax regret rates for Precision@n.
New framework for evaluating ad auctions using stochastic modeling.
problem Challenges in evaluating deterministic ad auctions.
method Repurposed bid landscape model to approximate propensity scores, enabling robust OPE estimators.
result Remarkable alignment with online A/B test results, achieving 92% MDA in CTR prediction.
Study online conformal prediction for non-stationary data with optimal training-conditional regret.
problem Online prediction for non-stationary data streams with unknown distribution drift.
method Proposes split-conformal and full-conformal algorithms that adapt to drift detection and incorporate stability for online learning.
result Proves minimax-optimal regret for online full conformal algorithm under appropriate restrictions.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
A new method combines online and offline learning to tackle contextual bandits with missing action support.
problem Learning optimal policies with logged data when the logging policy has deficient support.
method Hybrid approach using online exploration to exploit supported actions and offline learning to avoid unnecessary explorations.
result Determines an optimal policy with theoretical guarantees using minimal online explorations.
New algorithm optimizes AUC for sparse high-dimensional data in online learning.
problem Optimizing AUC for imbalanced classification with high-dimensional sparse data.
method Proposes extsc{FTRL-AUC} algorithm with reduced per-iteration cost and sparsity.
result Significantly improves AUC scores and model sparsity in real-world datasets.
Proposes a new model for online anomaly detection in multivariate time series.
problem Inaccurate anomaly detection in multivariate time series due to spurious correlations and lack of temporal causality.
method Clusters channels based on correlations, embeds each cluster, and integrates information through a causal mixer while maintaining temporal causality.
result Consistently superior performance across six public benchmark datasets.
Most multi-class classifiers make their prediction for a test sample by scoring the classes and selecting the one with the highest score. Analyzing these prediction scores is useful to understand the classifier behavior and to assess its reliability. We present an interactive visualization that facilitates per-class an…
The paper addresses statistical inference for online decision-making in a contextual bandit setting.
problem Understanding the performance of reward models in online decision-making with contextual information.
method The paper uses the contextual bandit framework with a linear reward model and the ε \varepsilon ε -greedy policy to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. It employs the martingale central limit theorem and inverse propensity score weighting to establish asymptotic normality of parameter estimators. result The online ordinary least squares estimator and the online weighted least squares estimator are asymptotically normal, providing insights into the performance of the reward model.
Paper addresses inconsistency between offline and online LTR performance.
problem Inconsistency between offline and online LTR performance in E-commerce.
method Proposes an evaluator-generator framework to maximize evaluator score using reinforcement learning.
result Significant improvement in Conversion Rate (CR) over existing models.
Algorithm detects changes online using expert tracking.
problem Online change point detection in nonparametric settings.
method Sequential score function estimation and tracking the best expert approach.
result Algorithm performs well in artificial and real-world data.
New online method for multivariate probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Multivariate probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices.
method Online multivariate distributional regression with LASSO regularization.
result Robust and interpretable joint prediction intervals for 24-hour electricity prices.
Paper proposes a new method to select memory data for online class-incremental learning.
problem Selecting which buffered images to replay for online class-incremental learning.
method Adversarial Shapley value scoring method to preserve latent decision boundaries.
result Proposed ASER method provides competitive or improved performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
ProSMIN improves representation quality through probabilistic self-supervised learning.
problem Improving representation quality in self-supervised learning.
method ProSMIN uses two neural networks, online and target, to learn diverse representations through knowledge distillation and a modified scoring rule loss function.
result ProSMIN achieves superior accuracy and calibration on various downstream tasks.
This paper improves change-point detection for complex data streams using denoising score matching.
problem Timely identification of distributional shifts in high-dimensional, complex data streams.
method Score-based CUSUM change-point detection with denoising score matching.
result Denoising score matching enhances detection power by effectively controlling noise scale.
SMRL uses score matching for efficient RL with exponential family models.
problem Efficient reinforcement learning with unknown transition models.
method Score matching for parameter estimation of exponential family models.
result Achieves online regret of O ( d H 3 T ) O(d\sqrt{H^3T}) O ( d H 3 T ) . Paper compares two forecasters using novel online inference methods.
problem How to compare forecasters without distributional assumptions.
method Confidence sequences and game-theoretic statistical framework for sequential testing.
result Valid methods for comparing forecasters without distributional assumptions.
GAIF enhances online multiple testing with feedback, improving statistical power.
problem Sequential online multiple testing with delayed feedback.
method GAIF framework using dynamic threshold adjustment and feedback-driven model selection.
result Improves statistical power through feedback-driven model selection.
The paper introduces a knowledge score for GPR predictions to assess their reliability.
problem Uncertainty in probabilistic predictions from Gaussian process regression models.
method A knowledge score quantifying the reduction of uncertainty in GPR predictions.
result The knowledge score improves prediction accuracy in various tasks.
Online monitor detects classifier drift and adapts predictions.
problem Silent degradation of classifier accuracy under distributional shift.
method Sliding-window KS statistic with calibrated alarm thresholds.
result 86.6% valid detection across various shift conditions.
Bayesian approach improves AdaLoRA's performance and efficiency.
problem Improving the efficiency and performance of adaptive low-rank adaptation.
method Utilized Bayesian metrics and the Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer for adaptive parameter budget allocation.
result Bayesian counterpart outperforms sensitivity-based importance metric and is faster than AdaLoRA.
Neural nets detect alarming student responses for quick review.
problem Identifying alarming student responses in online assessments.
method Developed neural network models to flag potentially concerning responses.
result Neural nets can flag alarming responses more efficiently than manual review.
NROWAN-DQN improves stability and exploration in noisy networks.
problem Noisy networks struggle with stable exploration in complex tasks.
method Noise reduction and online weight adjustment for stable actions.
result NROWAN-DQN outperforms prior algorithms in stability and exploration.
Paper proposes BOCPD for real-time order flow and market impact prediction.
problem Persistent order flow patterns in financial markets.
method Bayesian online change-point detection (BOCPD) with score-driven approach.
result Model outperforms existing models in predicting order flow and market impact.
Proposes OBS, a method to adaptively combine Bayesian models online.
problem Learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in online learning.
method Empirical Bayes lens, Online Bayesian Stacking (OBS).
result Establishes a novel connection between OBS and portfolio selection.
Develops a framework to control risk in online learning models.
problem Rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models.
method A framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk.
result Guarantees risk control at any user-specified level even with distribution shifts.
A new scoring function improves ordinal regression by combining binary predictions.
problem Improving ordinal regression prediction accuracy.
method Introduces a cumulative sum scoring function to combine binary predictions.
result Simplified formulation and two online learning algorithms converge under rank separability condition.
ECI improves time series prediction uncertainty quantification by smoothing miscoverage error.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for time series prediction due to temporal dependence and distribution shift.
method Error-quantified Conformal Inference (ECI) by smoothing quantile loss function and introducing adaptive feedback scale.
result ECI achieves valid miscoverage control and tighter prediction sets than existing methods.
Paper presents algorithm for optimal job selection with dynamic scoring.
problem Optimal job assignment in a sequential selection process with dynamic scores.
method Developed using dynamic programming, with extensions for partial and no-information cases.
result Algorithm allows for optimal job assignment with limited information.
Real-time anomaly detection for edge streams using MIDAS and MIDAS-F.
problem Detecting unusual behavior in dynamic graph edge streams.
method MIDAS-F focuses on microcluster anomalies, incorporating anomalies into internal states to reduce poisoning effect.
result MIDAS-F outperforms MIDAS in accuracy, with up to 62% higher ROC-AUC.
Gradient equilibrium improves online learning performance without requiring sublinear regret.
problem Achieving sublinear regret in online learning.
method Gradient equilibrium: average of gradients converges to zero.
result Gradient equilibrium can be achieved by standard online learning methods.
We model and correct bias in sequential evaluation, improving ranking accuracy.
problem Sequential evaluation bias in online, irrevocable scoring.
method Modeling the rating process, posing as statistical inference, proposing an online algorithm.
result Near-linear time, online algorithm with guarantees in ranking metrics, information theoretically optimal.
Research characterizes learnability of multilabel ranking problems.
problem Learnability of multilabel ranking problems with relevance-score feedback.
method Characterizes learnability in batch and online settings for a large family of ranking losses.
result Characterizes two equivalence classes of ranking losses based on learnability.
A novel online framework for analyzing multidimensional functional data.
problem Analysis of multidimensional functional data streams poses significant challenges.
method Online functional principal component analysis using tensor product splines on a Stiefel manifold with Riemannian stochastic gradient descent.
result Efficient and scalable modeling of multidimensional functional data.
Model user preferences for conversational LLMs using weak rewards.
problem Lack of persistent user models in conversational LLMs leading to repeated user restatements.
method Vector-Adapted Retrieval Scoring (VARS) framework that updates user vectors online from weak scalar rewards.
result Full VARS agent achieves strongest overall performance, matches strong Reflection baseline in task success, and reduces user effort.
Paper uses PSM to improve fake news detection generalizability.
problem Confounding variables in fake news features.
method Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to select features.
result Generalizability of fake news detection methods improved significantly.
Paper addresses selection bias in online advertising auctions.
problem Selection bias affects auction truthfulness and advertiser profits.
method Theoretical analysis combined with multi-task learning.
result Selection bias can be significantly reduced using multi-task learning.