New algorithm for online portfolio selection with reduced runtime.
problem Maximizing total return in online portfolio selection.
method Minimizes current logarithmic loss regularized by log-determinant of Hessian.
result Achieves regret guarantee similar to Universal Portfolios with reduced runtime.
New bounds for online portfolio selection without smoothness assumptions.
problem Online portfolio selection with non-Lipschitz, non-smooth losses.
method Data-dependent bounds using novel smoothness characterizations and FTRL with self-concordant regularizers.
result Achieves logarithmic regrets when data is 'easy' and sublinear worst-case regrets.
New algorithm reduces regret in online portfolio and quantum state learning.
problem Efficiently learning portfolios and quantum states online with minimal regret.
method BISONS algorithm for online portfolio selection, SCHRODINGER'S BISONS for quantum states, with polylogarithmic regret.
result First efficient algorithm with polylogarithmic regret for online portfolio selection and quantum states.
Online portfolio selection is a fundamental problem in computational finance, which has been extensively studied across several research communities, including finance, statistics, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data mining, etc. This article aims to provide a comprehensive survey and a structural under…
We present an online approach to portfolio selection. The motivation is within the context of algorithmic trading, which demands fast and recursive updates of portfolio allocations, as new data arrives. In particular, we look at two online algorithms: Robust-Exponentially Weighted Least Squares (R-EWRLS) and a regulari…
Adaptive robust strategy improves online portfolio selection by managing market trends and costs.
problem Optimizing sequential investment decisions in volatile markets.
method Robust optimization with adaptive parameter adjustment.
result Adaptive scheme outperforms existing strategies in cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios.
Financial markets are complex environments that produce enormous amounts of noisy and non-stationary data. One fundamental problem is online portfolio selection, the goal of which is to exploit this data to sequentially select portfolios of assets to achieve positive investment outcomes while managing risks. Various al…
EGAB algorithms improve online portfolio selection.
problem Online portfolio selection problem.
method Generalized exponentiated gradient (EG) updates with Alpha-Beta divergence regularization.
result EGAB algorithms enhance portfolio performance, especially with transaction costs.
Unified analysis of online optimization with self-concordant barriers, improving regret bounds.
problem Online convex optimization with specific loss functions.
method Online mirror descent with self-concordant barriers and logarithmic loss.
result Improved regret bounds for online portfolio selection and quantum state learning.
Online portfolio selection research has so far focused mainly on minimizing regret defined in terms of wealth growth. Practical financial decision making, however, is deeply concerned with both wealth and risk. We consider online learning of portfolios of stocks whose prices are governed by arbitrary (unknown) stationa…
Deep RL for portfolio management shows poor robustness.
problem Robustness of Deep RL algorithms in online portfolio management.
method Proposed a training and evaluation process for assessing DRL algorithms.
result Most Deep RL algorithms are not robust, generalizing poorly and degrading quickly.
Develops a new method for online conformal prediction without manual tuning.
problem Achieving long-run 1−α coverage for arbitrary data streams in an informative manner. method Linearized regret theory and universal portfolio algorithms.
result Strong finite-time bounds on miscoverage for UP-OCP, outperforming prior methods.
Proposes OBS, a method to adaptively combine Bayesian models online.
problem Learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in online learning.
method Empirical Bayes lens, Online Bayesian Stacking (OBS).
result Establishes a novel connection between OBS and portfolio selection.
Paper proposes new strategies for better portfolio estimation in long-term investments with unknown distributions.
problem Worse out-of-sample performance of estimated portfolios due to unknown future data distribution.
method Online learning framework, dynamic sequential portfolios, updating risk aversion coefficient.
result Dynamic strategies achieve asymptotically optimal utility, Sharpe ratio, and growth rate of true portfolios.
An online framework improves investment management by making incremental updates.
problem Offline investment processes restrict silos from collectively pursuing a unified goal.
method Developed an online algorithm workflow for portfolio management.
result The online framework outperforms market benchmarks and reduces overfitting.
In markets for online advertising, some advertisers pay only when users respond to ads. So publishers estimate ad response rates and multiply by advertiser bids to estimate expected revenue for showing ads. Since these estimates may be inaccurate, the publisher risks not selecting the ad for each ad call that would max…
This paper uses Thompson sampling to optimize portfolio selection.
problem Difficulty in estimating parameters for Markowitz's mean-variance optimization.
method Portfolio bandit strategy using Thompson sampling.
result Optimal investment portfolio can adapt to different investment periods.
New portfolios outperform traditional methods by using factor weights.
problem Improving portfolio allocation in markets driven by factors.
method Factor-weighted Dirichlet portfolios outperform uniform Dirichlet portfolios.
result Factor-weighted portfolios outperform uniformly sampled portfolios in market returns.
On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to …
CPPS selects portfolios using conformal prediction for better returns.
problem Optimizing portfolio returns with predictive models and uncertainty.
method Conformal prediction framework for portfolio selection.
result CPPS outperforms simpler strategies in delivering superior returns.
BOA improves financial forecasting by combining expert models.
problem Challenges in choosing between multiple machine learning models for financial forecasting.
method Online aggregation of expert models using Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA) procedure.
result BOA leads to better portfolio performance, higher Sharpe Ratio, and lower shortfall.
Some online advertising offers pay only when an ad elicits a response. Randomness and uncertainty about response rates make showing those ads a risky investment for online publishers. Like financial investors, publishers can use portfolio allocation over multiple advertising offers to pursue revenue while controlling r…
Testing-by-betting strategies almost surely go bankrupt under null hypotheses.
problem Understanding the behavior of betting strategies under null hypotheses.
method Analyzed the asymptotics of betting strategies under null distributions, focusing on the almost sure divergence of sums.
result Testing-by-betting strategies go bankrupt with probability one under any non-degenerate null distribution.
Replicates and improves a deep learning framework for financial portfolio management.
problem Financial portfolio optimization problem
method Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework with EIIE topology, PVM, OSBL, and reward function
result Framework performs well in cryptocurrency market but less so in stock market
In this paper we apply evolutionary optimization techniques to compute optimal rule-based trading strategies based on financial sentiment data. The sentiment data was extracted from the social media service StockTwits to accommodate the level of bullishness or bearishness of the online trading community towards certain…
RPS uses graph-based representation learning for better portfolio optimization.
problem Improving portfolio optimization with better returns and lower risks.
method RPS redefines the distance matrix of financial assets using Representation Learning and Clustering algorithms.
result RPS proposes a heuristic to select closer to the optimal subset of assets.
This appendix proves CORN's universal consistency. One of Bin's PhD thesis examiner (Special thanks to Vladimir Vovk from Royal Holloway, University of London) suggested that CORN is universal and provided sketch proof of Lemma 1.6, which is the key of this proof. Based on the proof in Gyprfi et al. [2006], we thus pro…
Grover search for optimal portfolios based on Sharpe ratio.
problem Finding optimal portfolios with specific risk-return characteristics.
method Grover's algorithm applied to portfolio selection with oracles.
result Quantum algorithms can efficiently find optimal portfolios.
New heuristic selects fewer assets for efficient portfolios, reducing costs.
problem High transaction costs and fees from including many assets in portfolios.
method Surrogate formulation to select assets, re-optimizes portfolio with fewer assets.
result Effective in constructing portfolios with fewer assets, reducing costs.
Automated planning is one of the foundational areas of AI. Since no single planner can work well for all tasks and domains, portfolio-based techniques have become increasingly popular in recent years. In particular, deep learning emerges as a promising methodology for online planner selection. Owing to the recent devel…
Modular pipeline improves stock portfolio prediction robustness under regime changes.
problem Overfitting in deep learning models for non-stationary datasets.
method Modular machine learning pipeline with GBDT models and online learning techniques.
result GBDT models with dropout show high performance, robustness, and generalisability.
SCS identifies a range of plausible equally weighted portfolios, quantifying selection uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in selecting the best equally weighted portfolio subset.
method Introduces Selection Confidence Set (SCS) for EWPs, covering plausible portfolios with high probability.
result SCS quantifies selection uncertainty and covers the unknown optimal selection with high probability.
We compare three network portfolio selection methods; hierarchical clustering trees, minimum spanning trees and neighbor-Nets, with random and industry group selection methods on twelve years of data from the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks from 2001 to 2013 for very small private investor sized portfolios. We f…
Algorithm beats best constant rebalancing portfolio in long-term investment.
problem Poor performance of learning algorithms in online portfolio optimization.
method Leverages serial dependence in asset returns without distributional assumptions.
result Strategy asymptotically grows to highest rate among all strategies.
Paper presents a new framework for optimal asset and signal combination.
problem Optimal asset and signal combination problem.
method Two-stage approach: reformulate dynamic portfolio selection problem, then use Canonical Correlation Analysis.
result Improved performance of proposed method over natural benchmarks.
Paper solves a complex portfolio selection problem with time-inconsistent preferences.
problem Time-inconsistent preferences in portfolio selection.
method Unified framework with minimal assumptions, proving existence and uniqueness of solution.
result Existence and uniqueness of square-integrable solution for the integral equation.
Study optimal portfolio selection using average and current profitability of risky assets.
problem Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection in time-varying financial markets.
method Introduced AP and CP indexes; estimated AP and CP using second-order variation of an auxiliary wealth process.
result Estimations of AP and CP are more accurate than traditional MLE.
Paper explores two methods for optimal portfolio selection in financial markets.
problem Optimal portfolio selection for financial markets with jumps.
method Maximum principle and dynamic programming approach.
result Relationship between two methods and their adjoint processes.
ML helps select variables for minimum-variance portfolios, reducing risk and improving performance.
problem Optimizing minimum-variance portfolios with relevant predictors.
method Parameterized minimum-variance portfolio weights using a large pool of firm-level characteristics and their transformations.
result ML-selected predictors lead to lower risk and better performance in minimum-variance portfolios.
Enhanced portfolio selection using sentiment data and LSTM.
problem Improving portfolio selection through sentiment analysis and price prediction.
method Semantic Attention Model for sentiment prediction, LSTM for price prediction, mean-variance strategy for portfolio optimization.
result Sentiment-aware portfolio strategies outperform non-sentiment aware models on average.
We study the decades-old problem of online portfolio management and propose the first algorithm with logarithmic regret that is not based on Cover's Universal Portfolio algorithm and admits much faster implementation. Specifically Universal Portfolio enjoys optimal regret O(NlnT) for N financial instrum…
ChatGPT selects stocks for investment portfolios, but optimization models improve results.
problem Using AI for investment advice due to model inaccuracies.
method Used ChatGPT to generate a stock universe, then compared various portfolio optimization strategies.
result Combining AI-generated stock selection with advanced optimization models yields better investment outcomes.
The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. This paper proposes a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for invest…
Financial portfolio management is the process of constant redistribution of a fund into different financial products. This paper presents a financial-model-free Reinforcement Learning framework to provide a deep machine learning solution to the portfolio management problem. The framework consists of the Ensemble of Ide…
Comprehensive review of robust portfolio selection models.
problem Addressing uncertainty in financial portfolio optimization.
method Classification and analysis of various models and approaches.
result Identification of open research questions.
The paper addresses errors in online selective conformal prediction and proposes new strategies to ensure valid inference.
problem Online selective conformal prediction's exchangeability issues and false coverage rate control problems.
method Evaluation and correction of existing calibration selection strategies, proposing new ones that preserve exchangeability.
result Novel calibration selection strategies ensure both selection-conditional coverage and FCR control.
Paper optimizes portfolio selection with ICX order constraints.
problem Minimizing portfolio variance with ICX order constraints.
method Optimal and efficient portfolios are derived in closed form.
result Closed-form solutions for optimal and efficient portfolios.
Paper uses RL to optimize multi-asset portfolios in fluctuating markets.
problem Optimizing multi-asset portfolios in time-varying financial markets.
method Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm for policy learning, policy iteration process.
result SAC algorithm outperforms in various criteria in simulated and real financial markets.