arXiv research

Research compares ML and Time Series methods for generating trading signals.

Approximate variational inference has shown to be a powerful tool for modeling unknown complex probability distributions. Recent advances in the field allow us to learn probabilistic models of sequences that actively exploit spatial and temporal structure. We apply a Stochastic Recurrent Network (STORN) to learn robot …

On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to …

Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs) and give an upper bound on the approximation error of such models. The resulting …

We introduce exact macroscopic on-line learning dynamics of two-layer neural networks with ReLU units in the form of a system of differential equations, using techniques borrowed from statistical physics. For the first experiments, numerical solutions reveal similar behavior compared to sigmoidal activation researched …

This paper re-examines the problem of parameter estimation in Bayesian networks with missing values and hidden variables from the perspective of recent work in on-line learning [Kivinen & Warmuth, 1994]. We provide a unified framework for parameter estimation that encompasses both on-line learning, where the model is c…

In this paper, we introduce a matrix-valued time series model for foreign exchange market. We then formulate trading matrices, foreign exchange options and return options (matrices), as well as on-line portfolio strategies. Moreover, we attempt to predict returns of portfolios by developing a cross rate method. This le…

We consider on-line density estimation with a parameterized density from the exponential family. The on-line algorithm receives one example at a time and maintains a parameter that is essentially an average of the past examples. After receiving an example the algorithm incurs a loss which is the negative log-likelihood…

On-line estimation plays an important role in process control and monitoring. Obtaining a theoretical solution to the simultaneous state-parameter estimation problem for non-linear stochastic systems involves solving complex multi-dimensional integrals that are not amenable to analytical solution. While basic sequentia…

Classification algorithms have been widely adopted to detect anomalies for various systems, e.g., IoT, cloud and face recognition, under the common assumption that the data source is clean, i.e., features and labels are correctly set. However, data collected from the wild can be unreliable due to careless annotations o…

In this paper we propose a computationally efficient algorithm for on-line variable selection in multivariate regression problems involving high dimensional data streams. The algorithm recursively extracts all the latent factors of a partial least squares solution and selects the most important variables for each facto…

In this paper, we establish a robustification of an on-line algorithm for modelling asset prices within a hidden Markov model (HMM). In this HMM framework, parameters of the model are guided by a Markov chain in discrete time, parameters of the asset returns are therefore able to switch between different regimes. The p…

Paper analyzes gradient descent with noisy data copies for linear regression, showing regularization and acceleration effects.

The problem of on-line off-policy evaluation (OPE) has been actively studied in the last decade due to its importance both as a stand-alone problem and as a module in a policy improvement scheme. However, most Temporal Difference (TD) based solutions ignore the discrepancy between the stationary distribution of the beh…

We briefly review our recent studies on stochastic processes modelling internet on-line trading. We present a way to evaluate the average waiting time between the observation of the price in financial markets and the next price change, especially in an on-line foreign exchange trading service for individual customers v…

Novel framework proves fast RL convergence in continuous spaces.

The paper proposes an on-line monitoring framework for continuous real-time safety/security in learning-based control systems (specifically application to a unmanned ground vehicle). We monitor validity of mappings from sensor inputs to actuator commands, controller-focused anomaly detection (CFAM), and from actuator c…

Twitter, a popular social network, presents great opportunities for on-line machine learning research. However, previous research has focused almost entirely on learning from passively collected data. We study the problem of learning to acquire followers through normative user behavior, as opposed to the mass following…

Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal Élő update still remains, after more than 50 years, a valuable baseline which is difficult to…

QActor optimizes learning from noisy labeled data streams by querying experts for clean labels.

The paper describes an application of Aggregating Algorithm to the problem of regression. It generalizes earlier results concerned with plain linear regression to kernel techniques and presents an on-line algorithm which performs nearly as well as any oblivious kernel predictor. The paper contains the derivation of an …

Information-theoretic bounded rationality describes utility-optimizing decision-makers whose limited information-processing capabilities are formalized by information constraints. One of the consequences of bounded rationality is that resource-limited decision-makers can join together to solve decision-making problems …

Most of machine learning deals with vector parameters. Ideally we would like to take higher order information into account and make use of matrix or even tensor parameters. However the resulting algorithms are usually inefficient. Here we address on-line learning with matrix parameters. It is often easy to obtain onlin…

In this paper, a unified susceptible-exposed-infected-susceptible-aware (SEIS-A) framework is proposed to combine epidemic spreading with individuals' on-line self-consultation behaviors. An epidemic spreading prediction model is established based on the SEIS-A framework. The prediction process contains two phases. In …

A new method for robust training under label noise using weighted gradient descent.

A data-driven approach called CaNN (Calibration Neural Network) is proposed to calibrate financial asset price models using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Determining optimal values of the model parameters is formulated as training hidden neurons within a machine learning framework, based on available financial op…

Invariant Kähler metrics on line bundles are derived from the Calabi ansatz.

Generalized cross validation (GCV) is one of the most important approaches used to estimate parameters in the context of inverse problems and regularization techniques. A notable example is the determination of the smoothness parameter in splines. When the data are generated by a state space model, like in the spline c…

We consider an on-line system identification setting, in which new data become available at given time steps. In order to meet real-time estimation requirements, we propose a tailored Bayesian system identification procedure, in which the hyper-parameters are still updated through Marginal Likelihood maximization, but …

This paper describes some applications of an incremental implementation of the principal component analysis (PCA). The algorithm updates the transformation coefficients matrix on-line for each new sample, without the need to keep all the samples in memory. The algorithm is formally equivalent to the usual batch version…

Specialized hierarchies improve decision-making by partitioning tasks.

Signalized intersections are managed by controllers that assign right of way (green, yellow, and red lights) to non-conflicting directions. Optimizing the actuation policy of such controllers is expected to alleviate traffic congestion and its adverse impact. Given such a safety-critical domain, the affiliated actuatio…

We show that a suitable notion of Dirac-Jacobi structure on a generic line bundle $L$, is provided by Dirac structures in the omni-Lie algebroid of $L$. Dirac-Jacobi structures on line bundles generalize Wade's $\mathcal E^1 (M)$-Dirac structures and unify generic (i.e.~non-necessarily coorientable) precontact distribu…

What is the role of social interactions in the creation of price bubbles? Answering this question requires obtaining collective behavioural traces generated by the activity of a large number of actors. Digital currencies offer a unique possibility to measure socio-economic signals from such digital traces. Here, we foc…

Combining deep model-free reinforcement learning with on-line planning is a promising approach to building on the successes of deep RL. On-line planning with look-ahead trees has proven successful in environments where transition models are known a priori. However, in complex environments where transition models need t…

It is well-known that the precision of data, hyperparameters, and internal representations employed in learning systems directly impacts its energy, throughput, and latency. The precision requirements for the training algorithm are also important for systems that learn on-the-fly. Prior work has shown that the data and…

We use Dirac operator techniques to establish a sharp lower bound for the first eigenvalue of the twisted Dolbeault Laplacian on holomorphic line bundles over compact Kähler manifolds.

Meta-learning consists in learning learning algorithms. We use a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) based network to learn to compute on-line updates of the parameters of another neural network. These parameters are stored in the cell state of the LSTM. Our framework allows to compare learned algorithms to hand-made algorit…

A neural network learns from examples and optimizes by dreaming.

We give the connection between three polynomials that generate triangles in The On-Line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences (A123192, A137396 and A300453). We show that they are related with the bracket polynomial for the (2,n)-torus knot

We solve the dynamics of the on-line minority game, with general types of decision noise, using generating functional techniques a la De Dominicis and the temporal regularization procedure of Bedeaux et al. The result is a macroscopic dynamical theory in the form of closed equations for correlation- and response functi…

Condition monitoring is one of the routine tasks in all major process industries. The mechanical parts such as a motor, gear, bearings are the major components of a process industry and any fault in them may cause a total shutdown of the whole process, which may result in serious losses. Therefore, it is very crucial t…

We study holomorphic locally homogeneous geometric structures modelled on line bundles over the projective line. We classify these structures on primary Hopf surfaces. We write out the developing map and holonomy morphism of each of these structures explicitly on each primary Hopf surface.

On-line detection of anomalies in time series is a key technique used in various event-sensitive scenarios such as robotic system monitoring, smart sensor networks and data center security. However, the increasing diversity of data sources and the variety of demands make this task more challenging than ever. Firstly, t…

In some applications and in order to address real world situations better, data may be more complex than simple vectors. In some examples, they can be known through their pairwise dissimilarities only. Several variants of the Self Organizing Map algorithm were introduced to generalize the original algorithm to this fra…

New method certifies global robustness of neural networks efficiently.

Abstract: Characterizes special Kähler manifolds with specific properties.

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $ε$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of labels, typically containing $\hat{y}$, that also contains $y$ with probability $1-ε$. Con…