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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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3827651,1471,529 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for observational causal models

Extends linear structural causal models to include deterministic relations and latent confounders for causal discovery.

problem Causal discovery in linear SCMs with deterministic relations and latent confounders.
method Extended existing results to include deterministic relations and latent confounders, derived necessary and sufficient conditions for unique identifiability, proposed an algorithm for recovery.
result First work on identifiability results for causal discovery under latent confounding and deterministic relationships.

Method estimates causal effects from combined interventional and observational data.

problem Estimating causal effects from unobserved confounders.
method Causal reduction method replacing latent confounders with a single latent confounder.
result Improves estimation accuracy from combined data without observing all confounders.

Flow models recover causal transformations from observational data and a valid ordering.

problem Causal inference with only observational data and a valid causal ordering.
method Flow models that can recover component-wise, invertible transformations of exogenous variables.
result Flow models outperform previous methods and deliver consistent performance across various structural causal models.

New method identifies latent causal variables from observed data, overcoming indeterminacies.

problem Identifying latent causal variables from observed data, especially when latent variables are weight-variant.
method Introduces a novel identifiability condition for latent causal models, proposing SuaVE method.
result Identifies latent causal variables up to trivial permutation and scaling, demonstrating consistency and efficacy.

DCM uses diffusion models to answer causal queries from observational data.

problem Answering causal queries from observational data alone.
method Diffusion models to learn causal mechanisms and generate latent encodings.
result Significant improvements over existing methods for causal query answering.

DCRL learns causal relationships from mixed-type discrete data.

problem Challenges in learning causal relationships from discrete, mixed-type data.
method Generative framework modeling directed acyclic graph and sparse bipartite graph, flexible measurement models for different types of data.
result Consistent recovery of latent causal structure from observed data distribution.

FMI uses matching to mimic interventions for causal feature learning.

problem Challenges in causal discovery from observational data.
method Feature Matching Intervention (FMI) using matching to emulate perfect interventions.
result FMI outperforms in identifying causal features from observational data.

SLdisco uses supervised learning to discover causal models from observational data.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with limited samples and sparse models.
method Supervised machine learning to map observational data to causal equivalence classes.
result SLdisco is more conservative, less sensitive to sample size, and provides better model inference.

Enhances RL in partially observable, noisy environments by uncovering causal states.

problem Making decisions based on incomplete and noisy observations in partially observable Markov decision processes (P2^2OMDPs).
method Causal State Representation under Asynchronous Diffusion Model (CaDiff) framework, incorporating a novel asynchronous diffusion model (ADM) and a new bisimulation metric.
result Enhances returns by at least 14.18% compared to baselines on Roboschool tasks.

New method combines experimental and observational data for causal inference.

problem Combining internal validity of experiments and larger sample sizes of observations.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) framework with cross-validation.
result Efficacy and reliability demonstrated on real and synthetic data.

Detects model misspecifications in causal models using observational data.

problem Identifying predictor variables with causal effects in misspecified models.
method Develops a general framework based on observational data distribution and proposes an algorithm for finite sample data.
result Identifies predictor variables for causal effects even in misspecified models.

New method identifies causal variables from partially observed data.

problem Learning from unpaired observations with instance-dependent partial observability.
method Proposes two methods enforcing sparsity in the inferred representation.
result Establishes two identifiability results for linear and piecewise linear mixing functions.

CAnDOIT discovers causal relationships using both observational and interventional time-series data.

problem Identifying causal relationships in the presence of hidden factors.
method CAnDOIT combines observational and interventional time-series data to reconstruct causal models.
result CAnDOIT effectively handles interventional data and enhances the accuracy of causal analysis.

Despite the major advances taken in causal modeling, causality is still an unfamiliar topic for many statisticians. In this paper, it is demonstrated from the beginning to the end how causal effects can be estimated from observational data assuming that the causal structure is known. To make the problem more challengin…

2014-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Novel approach to compute hazard ratios from observational studies using SCMs and backdoor adjustment.

problem Identifying causal relationships from observational data using hazard ratios.
method Backdoor adjustment through structural causal models (SCMs) and do-calculus.
result Novel approach for computing hazard ratios from observational studies.

KaCGM models provide transparent causal inference from tabular data.

problem Limited auditability in deep causal models for tabular data.
method KaCGM uses Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks to parameterize structural equations, enabling direct inspection and visualization of causal mechanisms.
result KaCGM achieves competitive performance and interpretable causal effects in real-world applications.

We use the score function for causal discovery, tackling challenges with hidden variables.

problem Causal discovery from observational data with hidden variables.
method Fine-tuning identifiability results, establishing conditions for inferring causal relations from the score, proposing a flexible algorithm.
result Empirical validation of the proposed algorithm for causal discovery on linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models.

Paper proposes a new method to identify causal graphs with latent variables using higher-order cumulants.

problem Estimating causal directed acyclic graphs with latent confounders.
method Uses higher-order cumulants to identify causal structures among observed and latent variables.
result Validates the proposed algorithm through simulations and real-world data.

CausalPFN automates causal effect estimation from observational data.

problem Manual selection of causal effect estimators is time-consuming and requires domain expertise.
method CausalPFN is a transformer that learns to infer causal effects from raw observations without task-specific adjustments.
result CausalPFN achieves superior performance on various benchmarks and real-world tasks.

Paper proposes RCD method to discover causal structure with latent confounders.

problem Causal discovery from data with latent confounders.
method Repetitive causal discovery (RCD) method to infer causal directions between observed variables.
result RCD effectively identifies latent confounders and causal directions between observed variables.

Paper tackles estimating individual treatment effects from observational data.

problem Estimating the difference between outcomes with and without treatment from single observation.
method Formulated as inference from hidden variables, uses a model of four causal populations, proposes ECM algorithm.
result ECM algorithm provides better performance compared to baseline methods on synthetic and real-world data.

New method identifies latent causal factors from observational data alone.

problem Identifying latent causal factors without interventions or graphical restrictions.
method Characterization of latent factors in nonlinear causal models with additive Gaussian noise and linear mixing, using a practical algorithm based on solving a quadratic program over observed data.
result Latent causal variables can be identified up to a layer-wise transformation, and further disentanglement is not possible.

We present Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNNs) to learn functional causal models from observational data. CGNNs leverage conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries to discover bivariate and multivariate causal structures. CGNNs make no assumption regarding the lack of confounders, and learn a diffe…

2017-11-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Symmetric observations don't necessarily imply symmetric causal explanations.

problem Inferring causal models from observed correlations is challenging and computationally intensive.
method An explicit example using a tripartite probability distribution over binary events.
result Symmetries in observations cannot be used to reduce the hypothesis space of causal models.

Estimates causal effects in Gaussian Linear SCMs with finite data.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with latent confounders.
method Centralized Gaussian Linear SCMs (CGL-SCMs) and EM-based estimation algorithm.
result Learned CGL-SCM parameters accurately recover causal distributions from finite observational samples.

Proposes a new condition to estimate latent variable causal graphs from observed data.

problem Estimating causal structures when observed variables are not the underlying causal variables.
method Introduces Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition and a recursive learning algorithm.
result Shows that GIN helps locate latent variables and identify their causal structure.

Study tackles causal structure learning in linear models with unobserved variables and measurement error.

problem Challenges of unobserved common causes and measurement error in causal structure learning.
method Introduces LV-SEM-ME model with four types of variables and characterizes identifiability under separability condition.
result Establishes form of identification robustness for target effect in broader LV-SEM-ME model.

Study interpolating estimators for causal learning from observational data.

problem Learning causal models from observational data in complex model classes.
method Investigate min-norm interpolators and ridge-regularized regressors in a linearly confounded model.
result Interpolators cannot be optimal for causal learning under the principle of independent causal mechanisms, requiring stronger regularization.

Model identifies causal structure from paired observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.

problem Identifying causal structure from observational and interventional data with unknown soft interventions.
method Proposes a scalable causal discovery model that aggregates subset-level PDAGs and applies contrastive cross-regime orientation rules.
result The model asymptotically recovers the identifiable PDAG and can orient additional edges compared to non-contrastive subset-restricted methods.

Extended LPCMCI learns causal models from interventional data to minimize prediction error.

problem Optimizing prediction of target variables using causal models.
method Combining observational and interventional causal discovery methods.
result Extended LPCMCI allows 60.9% optimal prediction of target variables compared to 53.6% with original LPCMCI.

We solve structure learning for cyclic linear causal models using observational data.

problem Learning the structure of cyclic linear causal models from observational data.
method Assuming simple graphs, we use a criterion for distributional equivalence and implement a greedy search method.
result We show that simple cyclic models are of expected dimension and justify score-based methods for structure learning.

Researchers identify latent variables and causal structures from nonlinear hierarchical models.

problem Challenging task of identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data, especially when relationships are nonlinear.
method Investigated nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models, developed identification criterion, and constructed an estimation procedure.
result Identifiability of causal structures and latent variables achieved under mild assumptions.

The paper explores how missing data problems are related to causal inference.

problem Missing data in experiments makes causal inference difficult.
method The paper reinterprets missing data as a form of causal inference by considering counterfactual variables.
result Identification assumptions in missing data can be encoded using graphical models of counterfactual and observed variables.

Identifies causal effects in LiNGAM models with latent variables.

problem Identifying causal effects in LiNGAM models with latent confounders.
method Complete graphical characterization and efficient algorithms for certification. RICA adaptation for estimation.
result Efficient algorithms and RICA adaptation for estimating causal effects.

New RL environments help AI learn causal relationships from visual data.

problem Learning causal relationships from visual data for AI agents.
method Designing benchmark RL environments and evaluating representation learning algorithms.
result Explicitly incorporating structure and modularity improves causal induction in model-based RL.

Study causal financial signals for non-stationary markets, improving short-term forecasts.

problem Short-term forecasting in non-stationary financial markets under causal constraints.
method Construct causal signals from heterogeneous micro-features using causal centering, linear aggregation, Kalman filter, and forward-like operator.
result Causally constructed observables can exhibit substantial economic relevance in specific regimes but degrade under regime shifts.

Paper distinguishes causal structures under latent confounding and selection bias.

problem Distinguishing causal relationships when latent variables and selection bias are present.
method Formulated selected-marginalized directed graphs (smDGs) to distinguish causal structures.
result Two causal structures are indistinguishable if they have the same selected-marginalized directed graph.

New method identifies causal relationships without strong assumptions.

problem Causal Representation Learning (CRL) is ill-posed due to representation and causal discovery issues.
method Identifiability based on grouping of observational variables, self-supervised estimation framework.
result Practical identifiability conditions without temporal structure, interventions, or weak supervision.

Proposes ENVAR for causal discovery in structural VAR models with equal noise variance.

problem Challenges in causal discovery from multivariate time series with contemporaneous effects.
method Introduces observational equivalence and the observational alignment discrepancy for structural VAR models with equal noise variance.
result Shows that multiple structural VAR parameterizations can induce the same stationary observed process law.