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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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106211317422 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for observational bias

A new algorithm CAP learns optimal policies from observational data with confounding bias and missing observations.

problem Offline contextual bandit with confounding bias and missing observations.
method CAP policy learning, forming reward function as solution of integral equation system, building confidence set, and greedily taking action with pessimism.
result Developed an upper bound to the suboptimality of CAP for the offline contextual bandit problem.

Develops Austen plots for assessing bias from unobserved confounding in observational studies.

problem Bias in causal estimates due to unobserved confounding.
method Formalizes confounding strength, uses Austen plots to visualize and quantify bias.
result Allows domain experts to assess the plausibility of strong confounders.

Study improves unbiased recommender learning by addressing missing-reward bias.

problem Data bias caused by missing-reward observations in recommender systems.
method Proposes a novel estimator using propensity scores to mitigate both position and reward bias.
result The proposed estimator outperforms other methods, even with increased reward observation bias.

Confirmation bias leads to biased estimates in noisy data analysis.

problem Confirmation bias affects scientific conclusions in noisy data environments.
method Investigation of confirmation bias in Gaussian mixture models using K-means and EM algorithms.
result Estimates from algorithms are biased and resemble initial hypotheses, not the noise.

Neural networks exhibit unimodal variance with model complexity, improving generalization.

problem The classical bias-variance trade-off does not apply to neural networks, leading to better generalization with larger models.
method Measured bias and variance of neural networks, confirmed empirically and theoretically.
result Neural networks show unimodal variance, leading to a double descent risk curve.

This paper corrects climate model biases using a factor model approach.

problem Systematic biases in GCM outputs due to unobserved confounders.
method Factor model approach to learn latent confounders from historical data and apply them to enhance bias correction.
result Significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs.

VTD uses deep embeddings to estimate treatment effects from longitudinal data without unconfoundedness assumption.

problem Challenges in estimating individualized treatment effects from longitudinal observational data due to confounding bias.
method Leverages deep variational embeddings and observed proxies to learn hidden confounders.
result Effective in estimating treatment effects when hidden confounding is the leading bias.

Paper distinguishes causal structures under latent confounding and selection bias.

problem Distinguishing causal relationships when latent variables and selection bias are present.
method Formulated selected-marginalized directed graphs (smDGs) to distinguish causal structures.
result Two causal structures are indistinguishable if they have the same selected-marginalized directed graph.

New algorithm mitigates affinity bias in hiring feedback loops.

problem Mitigating affinity bias in hiring decisions to avoid unconscious favoritism.
method Introducing affinity bandits, a new bandit variant that accounts for evolving biased feedback.
result Elimination-style algorithm nearly matches the derived regret bound, outperforming classical algorithms.

New method corrects selection bias in complex models.

problem Selection bias in statistical studies leading to systematic distortions.
method Amortized Bayesian inference with neural posterior estimation.
result Recover well-calibrated posterior distributions across diverse selection mechanisms.

Deep learning models show bias and variance are aligned, not in trade-off.

problem The classical bias-variance trade-off in deep learning models.
method Empirical evidence and theoretical analysis of bias and variance in deep learning models.
result Squared bias is approximately equal to variance for correctly classified sample points in deep learning models.

Proposes a sensitivity framework to handle limited overlap in causal inference.

problem Limited overlap between treated and control groups in observational studies.
method Sensitivity framework based on worst-case confidence bounds on bias introduced by trimming.
result Protects against spurious findings by quantifying uncertainty in regions with limited overlap.

Theoretical limits show experimental data can falsify but not validate causal estimates from observational studies.

problem Fundamental limits on validating causal estimates using experimental data in observational studies.
method Impossible inference framework, Gaussian Process based approach.
result Experimental data can falsify but not validate causal estimates from observational studies.

This paper addresses external validity bias in causal inference.

problem Estimating causal effects in a target population.
method Synthesis of approaches for generalizability and transportability, including tests for heterogeneity of treatment effects and differences between study and target populations.
result Framework for addressing external validity bias in causal inference.

This paper proposes a novel multiscale estimator for the integrated volatility of an Ito process, in the presence of market microstructure noise (observation error). The multiscale structure of the observed process is represented frequency-by-frequency and the concept of the multiscale ratio is introduced to quantify t…

2008-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Recommender systems are used in variety of domains affecting people's lives. This has raised concerns about possible biases and discrimination that such systems might exacerbate. There are two primary kinds of biases inherent in recommender systems: observation bias and bias stemming from imbalanced data. Observation b…

2018-09-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Reduces gender bias in patient notes while maintaining medical classification accuracy.

problem Bias in natural language processing of patient notes.
method Identifying and removing gendered language using BERT-based classifiers, then augmenting data to maintain performance.
result Minimal degradation in health condition classification tasks with data augmentation.

Bayesian adaptive designs can be biased by active learning, especially with misspecified models.

problem Active learning bias in Bayesian adaptive experimental designs.
method Analysis of linear and preference learning models, empirical testing.
result Model misspecification and noise influence active learning bias in Bayesian designs.

Vector embedding is a foundational building block of many deep learning models, especially in natural language processing. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework for understanding the effect of dimensionality on vector embeddings. We observe that the distributional hypothesis, a governing principle of statis…

2018-03-01abs ↗pdf ↗

In display advertising, predicting the conversion rate (CVR), meaning the probability that a user takes a predefined action on an advertiser's website, is a fundamental task for estimating the value of displaying an advertisement to a user. There are two main challenges in CVR prediction due to delayed feedback. First,…

2019-10-04abs ↗pdf ↗

CausalRM models rewards from user feedback, overcoming noise and bias.

problem Aligning language models with user preferences from noisy, biased feedback.
method Causal-theoretic reward modeling framework addressing noise and bias in observational feedback.
result CausalRM learns accurate reward signals from noisy and biased observational feedback.

Data-driven algorithms play a large role in decision making across a variety of industries. Increasingly, these algorithms are being used to make decisions that have significant ramifications for people's social and economic well-being, e.g. in sentencing, loan approval, and policing. Amid the proliferation of such sys…

2018-09-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Detect hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments.

problem Detect hidden confounding in observational data.
method Theoretical framework and simulation studies to test for hidden confounding.
result The proposed procedure correctly predicts hidden confounding, especially when bias is large.

Proposes methods to correct bias and missing data in regression models.

problem Nonignorable selection bias and missing response in regression models.
method Imputation-based and importance weighted regression methods, including repeated regression and doubly robust combination.
result Repeated regression can effectively correct bias and outperforms weighted regression in extrapolation.

Algorithm corrects bias in classification data.

problem Underrepresentation and intersectional bias in classification data.
method Estimate group-wise drop-out rates with small unbiased data, construct reweighting scheme, and present algorithm.
result Efficiently approximate loss of any hypothesis on true distribution.

New method uses observational data to improve trial design efficiency.

problem Scarce randomized controlled trials; inefficiency of using observational data.
method Active Residual Learning, R-Design framework, R-EPIG criterion.
result Efficiently estimating residuals to correct observational bias improves trial design.

CFR-Pro enhances treatment effect estimation by incorporating local proximity.

problem Treatment selection bias in HTE estimation from observational data.
method Proximity-enhanced CounterFactual Regression (CFR-Pro) with pair-wise proximity regularizer and subspace projector.
result Significantly outperforms competitors in HTE estimation accuracy.