This paper rates robustness of multi-modal time-series forecasting models.
problem Robustness of AI systems in time-series forecasting is crucial for stakeholders.
method Causal analysis to assess robustness of MM-TSFM models.
result Multi-modal forecasting models are more robust than numeric models.
CNN improves medium-range temperature forecasts with limited resources.
problem Limited computational resources for high-resolution temperature forecasts.
method CNN post-processing with ensemble NWP models for bias correction and spatial downscaling.
result High-resolution (5-km) surface temperature forecasts with lead times up to 5.5 days.
Analysts use vague language in reports to convey useful information about future payoffs.
problem Lack of precise numerical forecasts in analyst reports.
method Empirical analysis of analyst reports to assess the predictive power of linguistic tone.
result The textual tone of analyst reports has predictive power for forecast errors and subsequent revisions, especially when language is vague and uncertainty is high.
Benchmark assesses forecasting models' ability to use textual context.
problem Forecasting models struggle with integrating textual context.
method Introduces a benchmark with numerical and textual data, evaluates various models.
result LLM prompting method outperforms other models.
The paper presents a machine learning framework to combine weather forecasts from multiple models.
problem Combining forecasts from different NWP models with varying biases and limitations.
method Three-stage framework using Quantile Regression Forests and quantile averaging.
result The framework generates well-calibrated probabilistic weather forecasts suitable for decision support.
Non-parametric time series forecasting without assuming a specific distribution.
problem Time series forecasting with numerical stability issues in classical models.
method Generates predictions by sampling from the empirical distribution of time series data.
result The proposed method produces reasonable forecasts without numerical stability issues.
This study improves weather forecasting accuracy with spatiotemporal models.
problem Complexity and resource-intensive nature of weather forecasting.
method Spatiotemporal forecasting models integrating machine learning and deep neural networks.
result Spatiotemporal models reduce computational costs and improve accuracy.
This paper uses Gaussian processes to forecast short-term stock price volatility.
problem Inaccurate short-term volatility forecasts for high-frequency trades.
method Combines numerical and probabilistic models, specifically Gaussian Processes (GPs), to correct and forecast stock price data.
result Effective short-term volatility forecasts for high-frequency trades using Gaussian Processes.
ForecastGAN improves multi-horizon time series forecasting by integrating numerical and categorical features.
problem Limited performance of existing approaches in short-term and long-term forecasting.
method Decomposition, model selection, adversarial training.
result ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting.
Novel method for estimating SIRD model parameters and forecasting COVID-19 deaths in Poland.
problem Estimating epidemiological parameters for SARS-CoV-2 spread in Poland.
method Modified SIRD model, GPU architecture for computation.
result Effectiveness of short-term forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability of the method.
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…
WindDragon forecasts wind power with deep learning.
problem Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is crucial for grid operation.
method Automated Deep Learning combined with Numerical Weather Predictions.
result Automated Deep Learning improves wind power forecasting accuracy.
Symbolic LSTM improves time series forecasting by reducing hyperparameter sensitivity.
problem High sensitivity to hyperparameters and random initialization in numerical time series forecasting.
method Combining LSTM with a dimension-reducing symbolic representation.
result Symbolic representation alleviates forecasting problems and speeds up training.
PhysicsFormer improves TSF models for GSWF with WEATHER-5K dataset.
problem Lack of comprehensive datasets for GSWF.
method PhysicsFormer combines dynamic core and Transformer, enforcing physical consistency.
result PhysicsFormer outperforms TSF models in operational forecasting.
R package for online forecasting in various fields.
problem Frequent updates of forecasts in online settings.
method Generalized setup for time-adaptive fitting of dynamical and non-linear models.
result Effective use of forecasts as model inputs in operational settings.
The paper evaluates forecast accuracy of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections.
problem Forecast evaluation of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections of financial data.
method Equal predictive accuracy testing procedures, LASSO shrinkage, measurement error correction, cross-sectional jump component measures.
result The augmented HAR model outperforms the standard HAR model in forecasting realized volatility.
Deep neural networks improve ensemble weather forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency of ensemble weather forecasts.
method Mixed model combining subset of trajectories with deep neural networks for post-processing.
result Achieved over 14% relative improvement in ensemble forecast skill.
Study shows GPT's earnings forecasts are human-like but not always accurate.
problem Information friction in AI-generated financial analysis.
method Examined GPT's earnings forecasts following corporate earnings releases and proposed a diagnostic framework.
result GPT's narrative attention is consistent and human-like but not always associated with higher forecast accuracy.
Analog forecasting uses local dynamics to predict chaotic systems.
problem Theoretical connections between analog forecasting and dynamical systems are overlooked.
method Local approximations of the system's dynamics, linear regression, and estimation of analog forecasting errors.
result Analog forecasting performances are highly linked to the local Jacobian matrix of the flow map.
An image-driven approach for time series forecasting.
problem Time-series forecasting as a computer vision task.
method Capture input data as an image and train a model to produce the subsequent image.
result Our method outperforms various baselines, including ARIMA, using image-based evaluation metrics.
Improved probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting models for grid integration.
problem Enhancing accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts for grid integration.
method Developed and calibrated probabilistic models using post-hoc calibration techniques.
result NGBoost model with CRUDE calibration achieves comparable performance to numerical weather prediction models.
ST-GAN predicts stock trends using financial news and data.
problem Predicting financial trends in stock markets.
method ST-GAN combines NLP and technical indicators using GAN technology.
result Significant improvement over existing models in stock price forecasting.
Across numerous applications, forecasting relies on numerical solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs). Although the use of deep-learning techniques has been proposed, actual applications have been restricted by the fact the training data are obtained using traditional PDE solvers. Thereby, the uses of deep-le…
A new framework detects forecast model inadequacies using online monitoring of forecast errors.
problem Inaccurate forecasts lead to poor decision-making in complex models.
method Sequential changepoint techniques on forecast errors for real-time identification of process changes.
result The framework identifies shifts in forecast errors faster than in the original models, indicating process changes.
Study uses LLMs to improve financial forecasting by integrating textual and numerical data.
problem Challenges in fusing multimodal information and measuring qualitative outputs from LLMs.
method Created context sets by segmenting daily securities reports into key factors and combining them with numerical data. Used dynamic updates and crafted prompts to assign scores to qualitative insights.
result LLMs outperform time-series models in market forecasting, though challenges remain.
Survey of deep learning methods for time series forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy in time series predictions across various domains.
method Analysis of common encoder and decoder designs, hybrid models, and decision support.
result Advancements in deep learning for time series forecasting.
The participants of the electricity market concern very much the market price evolution. Various technologies have been developed for price forecast. SVM (Support Vector Machine) has shown its good performance in market price forecast. Two approaches for forming the market bidding strategies based on SVM are proposed. …
Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind, exposes the power grid to more vulnerabilities, conceivably due to their variab…
AI helps forecasters understand TC convective evolution before intensification.
problem Challenges in extracting scientific insights from complex TC data.
method Combining AI prediction algorithms and classical statistical inference.
result Identifies patterns in TC convective structure leading to intensification.
In machine learning, a nonparametric forecasting algorithm for time series data has been proposed, called the kernel spectral hidden Markov model (KSHMM). In this paper, we propose a technique for short-term wind-speed prediction based on KSHMM. We numerically compared the performance of our KSHMM-based forecasting tec…
CNNs improve wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands.
problem Limited spatial patterns in current post-processing methods.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for spatial wind speed information.
result CNNs produce better probabilistic forecasts with higher Brier skill scores.
Deep learning models forecast multiple yield curves with improved accuracy.
problem Globalization of financial markets affects yield curves.
method Combines self-attention mechanism and nonparametric quantile regression.
result Effective point and interval forecasts of future yields.
Neural networks learn from ensemble forecasts without considering their order.
problem Improving reliability of probabilistic weather forecasts.
method Permutation-invariant neural networks for postprocessing ensemble forecasts.
result Models achieve state-of-the-art prediction quality in surface temperature and wind gust forecasts.
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
problem Calibrated uncertainty quantification in probabilistic weather forecasts
method Conformal prediction
result Calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics
Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of "confidence bands" where the Gaussian assumption, which is not satisfied by our concrete data, may be abandoned. Those bands are quite convenient an…
The autocorrelation function of volatility in financial time series is fitted well by a superposition of several exponents. Such a case admits an explicit analytical solution of the problem of constructing the best linear forecast of a stationary stochastic process. We describe and apply the proposed analytical method …
Graph Neural Networks improve financial time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Forecasting univariate financial time series with statistical significance.
method Introducing the Time-Geometric model combining geometric and temporal patterns.
result Statistically significant improvements in forecasting accuracy through geometric patterns.
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach inc…
The forecasting and reconstruction of ocean and atmosphere dynamics from satellite observation time series are key challenges. While model-driven representations remain the classic approaches, data-driven representations become more and more appealing to benefit from available large-scale observation and simulation dat…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in …
Proposes a value-oriented forecast reconciliation method for renewables in electricity markets.
problem Forecast reconciliation overlooks the value of forecasts in decision-making, leading to unfair outcomes.
method Value-oriented forecast reconciliation using a Nash bargaining framework and a primal-dual algorithm for parameter estimation.
result Consistently increases profits for all agents involved in an aggregated wind energy trading problem.
This paper combines and improves probabilistic forecasts of wind speeds using advanced statistical methods.
problem Improving accuracy and reliability of probabilistic forecasts in wind speed prediction.
method Adapting prediction with expert advice theory to probabilistic forecasts, combining raw or post-processed ensembles, and using CRPS and Jolliffe-Primo tests.
result Combining probabilistic forecasts can lead to more reliable and skillful predictions, as shown by the Jolliffe-Primo test.
Study evaluates various regularization methods for electricity price forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy of electricity price predictions.
method Applied ten different penalty functions to two model structures in two electricity markets.
result LQ and elastic net consistently produce more accurate forecasts than other regularization types.
Novel framework improves wind power forecasts by bundling assets and using machine learning.
problem Inaccurate forecasts of intermittent renewable generation, especially wind power.
method Bundle-Predict-Reconcile (BPR) framework integrating asset bundling, machine learning, and forecast reconciliation.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy, especially at the fleet level.
Improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty characterization for spatio-temporal data.
problem Lack of uncertainty characterization in classical and deep learning models for spatio-temporal data.
method Bayesian inference using particle flow for approximating the posterior distribution of hidden states.
result Our approach provides better uncertainty characterization while maintaining comparable accuracy.
Improved wind speed forecasts for power generation using machine learning.
problem Improving the accuracy and reliability of wind speed predictions for power generation.
method A novel machine learning approach for calibrating wind speed ensemble forecasts.
result The proposed method improves the calibration and accuracy of probabilistic and point forecasts.
NGRC shows numerical instabilities with short lags and high-degree polynomials.
problem Numerical instabilities in NGRC feature matrix.
method Combining numerical linear algebra and dynamical systems theory, we study feature matrix conditioning. We evaluate different numerical algorithms for solving the regularized least-squares problem.
result SVD-based training achieves accurate forecasts without regularization, preferable for short lags and high-degree polynomials.
VEST automates feature engineering for time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in time series forecasting with improved performance.
method VEST combines auto-regression with statistical summarization of recent past dynamics.
result VEST significantly improves forecasting performance.