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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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481216 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for nuisance re-weighting

The paper discusses selecting predictive models for causal inference, highlighting the challenges and proposing a solution.

problem Selecting the best predictive models for causal inference from a variety of machine learning models.
method The paper proposes using RextriskR ext{-risk}, flexible estimators, and splitting data to compute risks for model selection.
result The proposed method controls both outcome errors for treated and non-treated individuals, addressing the issue of model selection for causal inference.

The paper analyzes how re-weighting helps in reducing variance in high-dimensional kernel methods under covariate shifts.

problem The challenge of high-dimensional kernel methods under covariate shifts and the role of re-weighting.
method Derives asymptotic expansion of high-dimensional kernels under covariate shifts, analyzes bias-variance decomposition, and characterizes the regularized kernel.
result Re-weighting helps in decreasing variance and can be seen as a data-dependent regularization.

NURD improves model performance by distilling representations independent of nuisance variables.

problem Models trained under spurious correlations may fail on data with different nuisance-label relationships.
method Developed Nuisance-Randomized Distillation (NURD) to find representations independent of nuisance variables.
result NURD finds representations that perform better regardless of nuisance-label relationships.

The joint PLDA model, is a generalization of PLDA where the nuisance variable is no longer considered independent across samples, but potentially shared (tied) across samples that correspond to the same nuisance condition. The original work considered a single nuisance condition, deriving the EM and scoring formulas fo…

2018-03-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning in high-energy physics faces challenges from nuisance parameters, which are reviewed and techniques to mitigate their impact are discussed.

problem Impact of nuisance parameters on machine learning performance in high-energy physics.
method Review and discussion of techniques including nuisance-parameterized models, modified or adversary losses, semi-supervised learning, and inference-aware techniques.
result Various methods to reduce the impact of nuisance parameters and improve model performance in high-energy physics.

Bayesian active learning tackles nuisance parameters, leading to bias and dilemmas.

problem Bayesian active learning with nuisance parameters leads to bias and dilemmas.
method Characterizes and mitigates negative interference by accurately estimating nuisance parameters.
result The extent of negative interference can be extremely large, and accurate estimation of nuisance parameters is critical.

New method for inference on strongly identified functionals even when nuisance functions are weakly identified.

problem Inference on continuous linear functionals of weakly identified nuisance functions defined by conditional moment restrictions.
method Proposes penalized minimax estimators for both the primary and debiasing nuisance functions, which can converge to fixed limits regardless of nuisance identifiability.
result Proves the asymptotic normality of a debiased estimator for the functional of interest, leading to asymptotically valid confidence intervals.

We provide non-asymptotic excess risk guarantees for statistical learning in a setting where the population risk with respect to which we evaluate the target parameter depends on an unknown nuisance parameter that must be estimated from data. We analyze a two-stage sample splitting meta-algorithm that takes as input ar…

2019-01-25abs ↗pdf ↗

New convergence guarantees for learning with unknown nuisance parameters.

problem Learning problems with unknown nuisance parameters.
method Stochastic gradient optimization with Neyman orthogonality and approximately orthogonalized updates.
result Stochastic gradient algorithms can converge under conditions of nuisance parameters.

Deep learning algorithms can fare poorly when the training dataset suffers from heavy class-imbalance but the testing criterion requires good generalization on less frequent classes. We design two novel methods to improve performance in such scenarios. First, we propose a theoretically-principled label-distribution-awa…

2019-06-18abs ↗pdf ↗

AutoBayes automates Bayesian graph exploration for robust machine learning.

problem Learning representations invariant to nuisance variations in machine learning.
method Automated Bayesian inference framework exploring different graphical models.
result Significant performance improvement with nuisance-invariant machine learning pipelines.

New method improves robustness of double robust estimators under complete misspecification.

problem Improper performance of double robust estimators when all nuisance functions are misspecified.
method DR+ACC, an adaptive correction clipping method.
result DR+ACC ensures bounded error and maintains semiparametric efficiency.

Bayesian method corrects bias in treatment effect estimation.

problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters.
method Bayesian debiasing, targeted modeling, sample splitting.
result Marginal posterior for ATE satisfies Bernstein-von Mises theorem under correct nuisance model specification.

Framework for multi-task learning with semiparametric models and nuisance parameters.

problem Improving parameter estimation from diverse, heterogeneous datasets.
method Late fusion multi-task learning framework with two-step process: individual task learning followed by adaptive aggregation.
result The method achieves faster convergence rates compared to individual task learning when tasks share similar parametric components.

A new machine learning method handles nuisance parameters for better unfolding in particle physics.

problem Improving statistical correction of cross sections in complex particle physics detectors.
method Profile OmniFold, a machine learning-based Expectation-Maximization procedure that incorporates nuisance parameters.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of Profile OmniFold on both simulated and real data.

Optimal tuning for estimating ECC in proportional asymptotics.

problem Estimating Expected Conditional Covariance (ECC) under proportional asymptotics.
method Debiased ridge regression estimators for nuisance functions, sample splitting strategies, and asymptotic variance analysis.
result Prediction-optimal tuning parameters may not minimize asymptotic variance of ECC estimator.

Accuracy on in-distribution data correlates with out-of-distribution data when data is noisy or contains nuisance features.

problem Correlation between in-distribution and out-of-distribution accuracy in noisy or feature-rich data.
method Analyzes the impact of noise and nuisance features on model performance.
result Accuracy on in-distribution and out-of-distribution data can become negatively correlated in noisy or feature-rich data.

We present a unified invariance framework for supervised neural networks that can induce independence to nuisance factors of data without using any nuisance annotations, but can additionally use labeled information about biasing factors to force their removal from the latent embedding for making fair predictions. Invar…

2019-05-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Localized debiased machine learning simplifies estimating quantile treatment effects.

problem Estimating quantile treatment effects in causal inference with many covariates and flexible relationships.
method Localized debiased machine learning (LDML) avoids learning the full nuisance function by estimating only at a single initial guess.
result LDML enables practically-feasible and theoretically-grounded efficient estimation of quantile treatment effects.

Optimal first-order methods are shown to be fundamental limits in functional estimation.

problem Optimal functional estimation under weak conditions.
method Formalization of functional estimation with black-box nuisance function estimates and derivation of minimax lower bounds.
result First-order methods are optimal under weak conditions, but higher-order methods can outperform them when nuisance function structure is known.

New method corrects biased predictions and uncertainty estimates in classification with nuisance parameters.

problem Tackles biased predictions and invalid uncertainty estimates in classification with nuisance parameters.
method Proposes a method that estimates ROC across the entire nuisance parameter space to devise invariant cutoffs.
result Demonstrates effective domain adaptation and valid prediction sets with high power.

New estimator optimizes black-box model errors in semiparametric estimation.

problem How nuisance estimation errors affect low-dimensional target parameters in semiparametric models.
method Proposed a new estimator achieving a sharper rate of convergence.
result The first-order stochastic error of nuisance estimation can be eliminated.

Corrects mismatch in consistency of nuisance estimators for doubly robust methods.

problem Mismatch in consistency of nuisance estimators in doubly robust methods.
method Calibrated debiased machine learning (calibrated DML) with isotonic regression adjustment.
result Calibrated DML yields doubly robust asymptotic normality with slower convergence of nuisance estimators.

We combine conditional variational autoencoders (VAE) with adversarial censoring in order to learn invariant representations that are disentangled from nuisance/sensitive variations. In this method, an adversarial network attempts to recover the nuisance variable from the representation, which the VAE is trained to pre…

2018-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose the orthogonal random forest, an algorithm that combines Neyman-orthogonality to reduce sensitivity with respect to estimation error of nuisance parameters with generalized random forests (Athey et al., 2017)--a flexible non-parametric method for statistical estimation of conditional moment models using rand…

2018-06-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Extends robust methods for causal inference, improving estimator performance.

problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of latent confounders.
method Minimax kernel machine learning for doubly robust functionals.
result Proposed method leads to robust and high-performance estimators.

A new framework evaluates HTE estimators using relative error.

problem Lack of robust evaluation methods for HTE estimators.
method Proposes a relative error-based evaluation framework and neural network architecture to estimate nuisance parameters and robustly compare HTE estimators.
result Demonstrates reliable comparisons and improved HTE estimation through the proposed framework and learning algorithm.

Proposes efficient estimators for weighted cumulative treatment effects in observational studies.

problem Inconsistent and inefficient estimators due to model misspecification and lack of overlap.
method Double/debiased machine learning for weighted cumulative causal effects.
result Proposed estimators are consistent, asymptotically linear, and reach semiparametric efficiency bounds.

M2m method improves deep learning performance on class-imbalanced datasets.

problem Class imbalance in labeled training datasets causes deep neural networks to generalize poorly to minority classes.
method Augment less-frequent classes by translating samples from more-frequent classes.
result Significantly improves generalization on minority classes compared to existing methods.

Data representations that contain all the information about target variables but are invariant to nuisance factors benefit supervised learning algorithms by preventing them from learning associations between these factors and the targets, thus reducing overfitting. We present a novel unsupervised invariance induction f…

2018-09-26abs ↗pdf ↗

New method makes CP intervals locally adaptive using trainable transformations.

problem Making Conformal Prediction intervals locally adaptive.
method Defining a trainable change of variables φX(A)φ_X(A) that depends on object attributes XX.
result Locally adaptive prediction intervals with guaranteed marginal validity and variable sizes.

Double machine learning provides n\sqrt{n}-consistent estimates of parameters of interest even when high-dimensional or nonparametric nuisance parameters are estimated at an n1/4n^{-1/4} rate. The key is to employ Neyman-orthogonal moment equations which are first-order insensitive to perturbations in the nuisance param…

2017-11-01abs ↗pdf ↗

DisCor corrects reinforcement learning issues by re-weighting collected data.

problem Reinforcement learning algorithms struggle with instability and sensitivity to hyperparameters.
method DisCor reweights collected data to mitigate issues caused by the distribution of experience.
result DisCor improves reinforcement learning in challenging settings like multi-task learning and noisy reward signals.