We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…
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48 results for “normalized mean absolute error”
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
The paper bounds the mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression.
problem Bounding the mean absolute error in deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Error decomposition techniques in statistical learning theory and non-convex optimization theory were used to derive upper bounds for approximation, estimation, and optimization errors.
result Theoretical upper bounds for mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression were derived and validated experimentally.
Improved LSTM models predict wind power more accurately with weather data.
problem Poor performance of generic LSTM models on wind power data.
method Contextualized LSTM models using weather forecast data and modifications to address model shortcomings.
result Increased accuracy and reduced naive character in predictions.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on the MAPE. We also show that finding the best model under…
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting …
Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Time Series Analysis: The sample of the currency of Kazakhstanq-fin.ST
This paper models yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and compares the actual data with developed forecasts using time series analysis over the period from 2006 to 2014. The official yearly data of National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan is used for present study. The main goal of this paper…
We deal with a notion of weak binormal and weak principal normal for non-smooth curves of the Euclidean space with finite total curvature and total absolute torsion. By means of piecewise linear methods, we first introduce the analogous notation for polygonal curves, where the polarity property is exploited, and then m…
The paper explores MAE as a loss function for DNN vector-to-vector regression, proving its advantages over MSE.
problem Improving loss function for deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Presenting performance bounds and new properties of MAE, deriving generalized upper bounds, and interpreting MAE as a Laplacian distribution.
result MAE is a more suitable loss function than MSE for DNN based vector-to-vector regression, especially when errors follow a Laplacian distribution.
Optimal stock price prediction model using recurrent neural networks with RMSprop optimizer.
problem Stock price prediction using neural networks.
method Comparison of fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent architectures; inclusion of three optimization techniques.
result Single layer recurrent neural network with RMSprop optimizer produces optimal results with validation and test MAE of 0.0150 and 0.0148 respectively.
Method estimates parameters of complex nonlinear systems.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear systems with derivative states.
method Regularized linear regression using differentiation filtering and least squares.
result Finite-sample bound on mean absolute error of estimation.
We have applied a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to model S&P 500 volatility, incorporating Google domestic trends as indicators of the public mood and macroeconomic factors. In a held-out test set, our Long Short-Term Memory model gives a mean absolute percentage error of 24.2%, outperforming linear Ridge/Lasso…
With the increasing penetration of solar power into power systems, forecasting becomes critical in power system operations. In this paper, an hourly-similarity (HS) based method is developed for 1-hour-ahead (1HA) global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. This developed method utilizes diurnal patterns, statistic…
LALR adapts learning rate for faster convergence in regression and neural nets.
problem Finding optimal learning rates for faster convergence in regression and neural networks.
method Lipschitz continuity theory applied to Mean Absolute Error and Quantile loss functions.
result Adaptive learning rate policy enables up to 20x faster convergence.
Paper proposes a new metric to evaluate survival models, especially for censored data.
problem Challenges in evaluating survival prediction models due to censored data.
method Developed a novel approach to estimate Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for survival datasets with censored data.
result The proposed MAE metric using pseudo-observations accurately ranks model performance and closely matches true MAE.
We present a new approximation to the normal distribution quantile function. It has a similar form to the approximation of Beasley and Springer [3], providing a maximum absolute error of less than . This is less accurate than [3], but still sufficient for many applications. However it is faster than …
This paper achieves optimal regret bounds for locally private linear contextual bandit.
problem Designing locally private linear contextual bandit algorithms with optimal regret bounds.
method New algorithmic and analytical ideas, including mean absolute deviation analysis and layered principal component regression.
result Achieves an regret upper bound for locally private linear contextual bandit.
NICE^k Metrics: Unified and Multidimensional Framework for Evaluating Deterministic Solar Forecasting Accuracyphysics.ao-ph
Unified NICEk metrics improve solar forecasting accuracy.
problem Lack of suitable error metrics for multidimensional solar irradiance forecasting.
method Introducing NICEk framework with Lk norms for evaluating forecasting models.
result NICESigma consistently outperforms traditional metrics in discriminative power and statistical significance.
Neural network training process takes long time when the size of training data is huge, without the large set of training values the neural network is unable to learn features. This dilemma between time and size of data is often solved using fast GPUs, but we present a better solution for a subset of those problems. To…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility covariance matrix of the time series is modelled via inverted Wishart and singul…
LU-Net improves cardiac segmentation accuracy and robustness.
problem Robustness and accuracy of deep learning cardiac segmentation.
method Multi-task end-to-end network designed to improve cardiac segmentation.
result Outperforms current best deep learning solution, reducing outliers and improving clinical indices.
Model predicts viscosity of multicomponent systems efficiently.
problem Expensive experimental viscosity measurements in various industries.
method Artificial neural networks trained on a database of chemical systems and temperatures.
result Model Viskositas provides more accurate predictions with lower errors, variability, and outliers.
The purpose of this research is to apply technical analysis of Sutte Indicator in stock trading which will assist in the investment decision making process i.e. buying or selling shares. This research takes data of "A" on the Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX or BEI) 29 November 2006 until 20 September 2016 period. To see t…
Quantum-enhanced method improves stock return prediction accuracy.
problem Improving precision of stock return forecasting.
method Quantum Gramian Angular Field (QGAF) combining quantum computing and CNNs.
result Significantly improved prediction accuracy (25% MAE, 48% MSE reduction).
A Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Sea Surface Temperature in the Great Barrier Reef Regionphysics.ao-ph
Study compares machine learning algorithms for predicting SST in the Great Barrier Reef.
problem Predicting sea surface temperature in the Great Barrier Reef region.
method Ridge regression, LASSO, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms were evaluated.
result XGBoost significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and Kullback-Leibler Divergence.
Proposes a new loss function for learning with noisy labels.
problem Improving model learnability with noisy labels.
method Uses generalized Jensen-Shannon divergence as a noise-robust loss function.
result Shows state-of-the-art results on noisy data.
Discrete time hedging in a complete diffusion market is considered. The hedge portfolio is rebalanced when the absolute difference between delta of the hedge portfolio and the derivative contract reaches a threshold level. The rate of convergence of the expected squared hedging error as the threshold level approaches z…
Researchers compute Bayes error for classification models using normalizing flows.
problem Evaluating the inherent difficulty of classification problems.
method Invertible transformations and Gaussian base distributions to compute Bayes error.
result State-of-the-art models can achieve near-optimal accuracy but not always.
Predicts Bitcoin price using Twitter sentiment analysis.
problem Volatility and varied opinions in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed a model combining sentiment analysis of tweets and historical price data.
result Sentiment prediction MAPE of 9.45%, price prediction MAPE of 3.6%
Waiting-time distribution for a stock-market indexphysics.soc-ph
We investigate the waiting-time distribution of the absolute return in the Korean stock-market index KOSPI. We define the waiting time as a time interval during which the normalized absolute return remains continuously below a threshold . Through an exponential bin plot, we observe that the waiting-time distributi…
Bayesian inference and superstatistics to describe long memory processes of financial time seriesq-fin.ST
Bayesian inference and superstatistics model financial volatility dynamics across different timescales.
problem Modeling correlated volatility in financial time series with heavy tails and long memory.
method Superstatistical dynamics, Bayesian Inference, Metropolis-Hasting sampling.
result The log-Normal model is reliable for short timescales, while inverse-Gamma is preferred for long timescales.
Are Bitcoins price predictable? Evidence from machine learning techniques using technical indicatorsq-fin.ST
Machine learning predicts Bitcoin price with high accuracy.
problem Uncertainty in Bitcoin price prediction for investors.
method Used machine learning techniques with technical indicators.
result Stacking ensemble model with random forest and GLM is optimal.
Models predict probabilities of causation from limited data.
problem Estimating probabilities of causation requires unreliable or impractical experimental and observational data.
method Proposed Exact-MLP and Mask-MLP models trained on reliable subpopulations.
result Models achieve average MAEs of roughly 0.03, reducing MAE by 80%.
A complete surface of constant mean curvature 1 (CMC-1) in hyperbolic 3-space with constant curvature -1 has two natural notions of "total curvature"-- one is the total absolute curvature which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature, and the other is the dual total absolute cur…
Paper introduces MADL loss function for better AIS model optimization.
problem Optimizing machine learning models for AIS construction.
method Proposes Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function.
result MADL function improves hyperparameter selection and investment strategy efficiency.
Study forecasts Bitcoin prices using ML algorithms.
problem Accurately predicting Bitcoin price movements.
method Applied four ML algorithms: SVM, ANN, NB, RF, and LR.
result RF outperforms other models in continuous dataset, NB in discrete.
Ordinal regression is aimed at predicting an ordinal class label. In this paper, we consider its semi-supervised formulation, in which we have unlabeled data along with ordinal-labeled data to train an ordinal regressor. There are several metrics to evaluate the performance of ordinal regression, such as the mean absol…
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Near-optimal algorithms for mean estimation and linear regression with Gaussian covariates and Huber contamination.
problem Gaussian mean estimation and linear regression with Gaussian covariates in the presence of Huber contamination.
method Near-optimal algorithms with optimal error guarantees, achieving sample complexity and almost linear runtime.
result First sample near-optimal and almost linear-time algorithms with optimal error guarantees for both problems.
Explicit regularization and implicit bias in deep network classifiers trained with the square losscs.LG
Theoretical justification for deep networks' performance with regularization techniques.
problem Understanding the performance of deep networks trained with the square loss.
method Analysis of gradient flow and theoretical justification of regularization techniques.
result Convergence to solutions with smaller Frobenius norms leads to better classification error bounds.
New methods improve insurance data quality for catastrophic events.
problem Improving precision and size of insurance data for catastrophic events.
method Bootstrap, bootknife, and GAN algorithms.
result Compared MSE and MAE of simulated outputs, direct algorithm for fuzzy expert opinion.
Neural network model improves leaf spectral reflectance prediction for grapevines.
problem Inaccurate modeling of grapevine leaf spectral reflectance from traits.
method Multi-head attention neural network trained on grapevine-specific data.
result Model achieved high accuracy (R^2=0.84, NRMSE=1.52%) and outperformed PROSPECT-PRO.
Predict stock prices using financial news sentiment analysis.
problem Predicting stock market trends for better investment returns.
method Deep Learning (MLP, LSTM, FinBERT-LSTM) integrating news sentiment.
result FinBERT-LSTM model predicts stock prices more accurately.
In this work, we study robust deep learning against abnormal training data from the perspective of example weighting built in empirical loss functions, i.e., gradient magnitude with respect to logits, an angle that is not thoroughly studied so far. Consequently, we have two key findings: (1) Mean Absolute Error (MAE) D…
Materials property prediction using symmetry-labeled graphs as atomic-position independent descriptorscond-mat.mtrl-sci
Computational materials screening studies require fast calculation of the properties of thousands of materials. The calculations are often performed with Density Functional Theory (DFT), but the necessary computer time sets limitations for the investigated material space. Therefore, the development of machine learning …
Study compares local and global models for hierarchical forecasting accuracy.
problem Challenges in hierarchical time series forecasting, especially in accuracy and information utilisation.
method Developed and evaluated local and global forecasting models (GFMs) to exploit cross-series and cross-hierarchies information.
result Global Forecasting Models (GFMs) outperform local models in hierarchical forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
Finding hidden-feature depending laws inside a data set and classifying it using Neural Networkcs.LG
The logcosh loss function helps neural networks learn set-valued functions better.
problem Learning set-valued functions with neural networks.
method Using artificial neural networks with logcosh loss.
result Neural networks with logcosh loss can classify samples based on set-valued functions.
We review recent results on classifying complete constant mean curvature 1 (CMC 1) surfaces in hyperbolic 3-space with low total curvature. There are two natural notions of "total curvature" -- one is the total absolute curvature, which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature, a…