Link prediction is a fundamental task in statistical network analysis. Recent advances have been made on learning flexible nonparametric Bayesian latent feature models for link prediction. In this paper, we present a max-margin learning method for such nonparametric latent feature relational models. Our approach attemp…
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48 results for “nonparametric predictive inference”
We present a max-margin nonparametric latent feature model, which unites the ideas of max-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics to discover discriminative latent features for link prediction and automatically infer the unknown latent social dimension. By minimizing a hinge-loss using the linear expectation operat…
Method constructs nonparametric prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Nonparametric instrumental variable regression with finite-sample coverage.
method Conformal inference framework applied to NPIV, combining with various estimators.
result Distribution-free, finite-sample coverage over chosen IV shifts.
Paper presents a novel nonparametric method to price Asian options.
problem Difficulty in pricing Asian options, especially with arithmetic average price.
method Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) for Asian option pricing.
result NPI method provides a more precise and uncertain prediction of future asset prices.
Current variational inference methods for hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models can neither characterize the correlation structure among latent variables due to the mean-field setting, nor infer the true posterior dimension because of the universal truncation. To overcome these limitations, we propose the conditio…
A debiasing method improves nonparametric regression's statistical properties.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for modern nonparametric regression methods.
method Model-free debiasing method incorporating a correction term.
result Debiased estimator satisfies pointwise and uniform risk convergence, asymptotic normality.
Proposes inference for DNNs in GNRMs, addressing non-independence issues.
problem Inference for DNN-estimated means in GNRMs under non-independence.
method Develops a DNN estimator and ESM for variance estimation and confidence intervals.
result Demonstrates feasibility of inference under GNRMs with ESM.
We extend nonparametric models to handle extrapolation, providing bounds for inference.
problem Challenges in nonparametric statistical inference when evaluating outside the conditioning variable's support.
method Introduced a class of extrapolation assumptions and a consistent estimation procedure to handle extrapolation.
result Validated extrapolation-aware conclusions through various applications and real-world data.
Bayesian ODEs with Gaussian processes infer unknown dynamics from data.
problem Estimating unknown continuous-time system dynamics from data.
method Bayesian nonparametric model using Gaussian processes, sparse variational inference, probabilistic shooting.
result Posterior predictive uncertainty scores outperform alternative methods on multiple ODE learning tasks.
New tools connect CP to GF inference for better probabilistic prediction.
problem Lack of versatility in conformal prediction for quantifying evidence.
method Imprecise probability theory and generalized fiducial inference.
result Establishes a formal connection between CP and GF inference.
Proposes a framework to assess feature importance without algorithm constraints.
problem Lack of a general framework for assessing feature importance across different algorithms.
method Develops a nonparametric framework for algorithm-agnostic variable importance assessment.
result Valid confidence intervals and testing strategies for variable importance.
We present a discriminative nonparametric latent feature relational model (LFRM) for link prediction to automatically infer the dimensionality of latent features. Under the generic RegBayes (regularized Bayesian inference) framework, we handily incorporate the prediction loss with probabilistic inference of a Bayesian …
Surveying nonparametric inference with shape constraints, past and future.
problem Statistical inference under shape constraints.
method Historical overview and future directions.
result Outlook on future research directions.
Novel nonparametric method for GLMs improves prediction and inference performance.
problem Improving prediction and inference in GLMs with minimal assumptions.
method Combines binary regression and latent variable formulations, extends parametric versions, introduces new classification statistic.
result Uniformly better prediction and inference performance over parametric formulation, especially with asymmetric data.
Techniques known as Nonlinear Set Membership prediction, Lipschitz Interpolation or Kinky Inference are approaches to machine learning that utilise presupposed Lipschitz properties to compute inferences over unobserved function values. Provided a bound on the true best Lipschitz constant of the target function is known…
DF2M uses deep neural networks within a factor model for high-dimensional functional time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting high-dimensional functional time series with explainability and accuracy.
method Bayesian nonparametric model based on Indian Buffet Process and multi-task Gaussian Process, incorporating a deep kernel function.
result DF2M provides better explainability and superior predictive accuracy compared to conventional deep learning models.
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
problem Challenges in non-smooth data distributions for Bayesian density estimation.
method Autoregressive likelihood decomposition and Gaussian process prior in a quasi-Bayesian framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in small-data regimes.
Proposes a robust method for counterfactual classification.
problem Decision-making under hypothetical scenarios.
method Doubly-robust nonparametric estimator for counterfactual classification.
result Robust against nuisance model misspecification, can attain fast rates.
Variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference. However, their use is typically limited to families of distributions that enjoy particular conjugacy properties. To circumvent this limitation, we propose a family of variational approximations inspired by nonparametric kernel density estimation. …
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gauss…
Metalearned neural circuit performs inference over open classes.
problem Nonparametric Bayesian models' practical barriers in real-world applications.
method Extract inductive bias from nonparametric Bayesian model and transfer to neural network.
result Metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods.
SoftBart improves BART for high-noise modeling in science.
problem High noise in scientific data.
method Soft BART algorithm for Bayesian additive regression trees.
result Improves predictive performance and facilitates larger model integration.
Amortized VI for DGPs learns efficient inference.
problem Expressive limitations in GP approximations.
method Amortized variational inference for DGPs.
result Improved expressive prior and posterior for DGPs.
NP-iMCMC algorithm for nonparametric models in universal PPLs.
problem Developing inference algorithms for arbitrary nonparametric models in universal PPLs.
method Unifying involutive MCMC framework with a general procedure for state movement.
result Proves the correctness of the NP-iMCMC sampler and shows significant performance improvements.
Generative Augmented Inference improves AI-generated data for causal inference.
problem Challenges in using AI-generated annotations for reliable causal inference.
method Generative Augmented Inference (GAI) treats AI outputs as informative features for learning true labels, flexibly modeling the relationship using nonparametric methods.
result GAI significantly reduces estimation error and improves confidence interval quality compared to human-only and PPI-based methods.
Researchers develop a new SMC sampler for Wishart processes to improve dynamic covariance inference.
problem Challenging inference of dynamic covariance in various scientific fields.
method Introduce Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the Wishart process.
result SMC sampling provides more robust estimates and out-of-sample predictions of dynamic covariance.
NP-HMC extends HMC for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
problem Inference for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
method Introduces NP-HMC, a generalization of HMC for nonparametric models using tree representable functions.
result Empirically shows significant performance improvements over existing approaches.
The paper reviews exchangeability and its implications for conformal prediction and rank tests.
problem Ensuring distribution-free predictive inference in machine learning and statistics.
method Explains exchangeability and its role in conformal prediction and rank tests.
result Discovers similarities between conformal prediction and rank tests based on exchangeability.
This paper introduces a spline-based method for nonparametric ADVI that handles complex posterior distributions.
problem Learning complex posterior distributions with skewness, multimodality, and bounded support.
method Develops a spline-based nonparametric approximation approach for ADVI.
result Establishes the asymptotic consistency of the derived lower bound for importance weighted autoencoder.
A new model predicts discrete events with flexible, nonparametric baseline and excitation.
problem Limited flexibility in discrete Hawkes models for event prediction.
method Gaussian Process Discrete Hawkes Process (GP-DHP) with collapsed latent representation.
result Improves predictive log-likelihood for diverse event patterns.
Spatio-temporal data is intrinsically high dimensional, so unsupervised modeling is only feasible if we can exploit structure in the process. When the dynamics are local in both space and time, this structure can be exploited by splitting the global field into many lower-dimensional "light cones". We review light cone …
This work develops a learning theory for inferring interaction kernels in complex agent systems.
problem Modeling complex interactions in systems of particles or agents.
method Nonparametric regression and approximation theory.
result Strong consistency and optimal convergence rates for estimators of interaction kernels.
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
Techniques known as Nonlinear Set Membership prediction, Kinky Inference or Lipschitz Interpolation are fast and numerically robust approaches to nonparametric machine learning that have been proposed to be utilised in the context of system identification and learning-based control. They utilise presupposed Lipschitz p…
The aim of this work is to enable inference of deep networks that retain high accuracy for the least possible model complexity, with the latter deduced from the data during inference. To this end, we revisit deep networks that comprise competing linear units, as opposed to nonlinear units that do not entail any form of…
Causal Inference with the Instrumental Variable Approach and Bayesian Nonparametric Machine Learningstat.ML
Bayesian nonparametric machine learning improves instrumental variable inference.
problem Estimating causal effects with nonlinear relationships.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) for estimating functions and Dirichlet Process mixtures for error terms.
result Dramatic improvements in inference with nonlinear data, no manual tuning required.
Conditional kernel mean embeddings form an attractive nonparametric framework for representing conditional means of functions, describing the observation processes for many complex models. However, the recovery of the original underlying function of interest whose conditional mean was observed is a challenging inferenc…
Gaussian processes are a flexible Bayesian nonparametric modelling approach that has been widely applied but poses computational challenges. To address the poor scaling of exact inference methods, approximation methods based on sparse Gaussian processes (SGP) are attractive. An issue faced by SGP, especially in latent …
This paper presents a Bayesian generative model for dependent Cox point processes, alongside an efficient inference scheme which scales as if the point processes were modelled independently. We can handle missing data naturally, infer latent structure, and cope with large numbers of observed processes. A further novel …
We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma--Poisson construction---a natural choice for count data---and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties and shrinks the model parameters, thus avoiding overfitting. We present an effici…
This article reviews and compares various methods for estimating conditional distributions.
problem Inference of conditional distributions in statistics.
method Classical nonparametric methods and modern generative models.
result A systematic numerical comparison of methods using performance metrics.
Symmetric binary matrices representing relations among entities are commonly collected in many areas. Our focus is on dynamically evolving binary relational matrices, with interest being in inference on the relationship structure and prediction. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian dynamic model, which reduces dimension…
Neural networks improve nonparametric regression with measurement errors.
problem Nonparametric regression with measurement errors.
method Proposes a neural network design using FNN, normalizing flow, and inference network.
result Neural network approach is more flexible and superior or comparable to classical methods.
Novel mutual information bound improves statistical inference rates.
problem Improving statistical inference rates in Bayesian nonparametrics.
method Introduces a novel mutual information bound.
result Improved contraction rates for fractional posteriors.
Fused Multinomial Logistic Regression Utilizing Summary-Level External Machine-learning Informationstat.ME
Proposes a method to use external machine-learning predictions in multinomial logistic regression.
problem Improving statistical inference using summary-level external machine-learning predictions.
method Empirical-likelihood framework incorporating moment constraints from external nonparametric machine-learning predictions.
result Fused estimator achieves strict efficiency gain over primary-only estimator under mild conditions.
Bayesian methods improve causal effect estimation, offering shrinkage and sensitivity analysis.
problem Improving causal effect estimation in practical settings.
method Parametric and nonparametric Bayesian approaches.
result Priors induce shrinkage and sparsity in parametric models.
A new method for embedding sparse high-order interactions.
problem Learning embeddings from sparse high-order interaction events.
method Hybridizing sparse hypergraph and matrix Gaussian processes.
result Strong asymptotic bounds on sparsity ratio.
Kernel Bayes' rule has been proposed as a nonparametric kernel-based method to realize Bayesian inference in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. However, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the prediction result by kernel Bayes' rule is in some cases unnatural. We consider that this phenomenon is i…