Neural networks simplify uncertainty quantification of locally nonlinear systems.
problem Estimating statistics of responses in large-scale locally nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Decomposes response into nominal linear system and a neural network-estimated pseudoforce.
result Neural networks can efficiently estimate pseudoforce containing nonlinear and uncertain information.
Novel methods for splitting Gaussian mixtures improve uncertainty propagation in nonlinear systems.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency in nonlinear uncertainty propagation.
method Preserving mean and covariance, novel heuristics for selecting splitting direction informed by initial uncertainty and nonlinear function properties.
result Improved accuracy and efficiency in uncertainty propagation compared to existing techniques.
Unified framework for selecting variables with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in nonlinear variable selection for various models.
method Develops a unified framework using integrated partial derivatives for quantifying variable importance and uncertainty.
result The approach provides a principled method for quantifying variable selection uncertainty and is generalizable to non-differentiable models.
Bayesian method improves predictions in overparameterized nonlinear regression.
problem Understanding overparameterization in nonlinear regression models.
method Bayesian framework with adaptive prior considering data spectral structure.
result Posterior contraction established for generalized linear and single-neuron models, demonstrating prediction consistency.
Controller seeks informative system observations to predict nonlinear dynamics.
problem Predicting nonlinear dynamics with uncertain parameters.
method Expected free energy minimization for balancing goal state and informative observations.
result Controller improves performance in uncertain parameter scenarios.
In stochastic decision problems, one often wants to estimate the underlying probability measure statistically, and then to use this estimate as a basis for decisions. We shall consider how the uncertainty in this estimation can be explicitly and consistently incorporated in the valuation of decisions, using the theory …
DeepONet accelerates reliability analysis of stochastic nonlinear systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with stochastic forcing.
method DeepONet, a novel operator network, learns function-to-function mappings.
result DeepONet efficiently and accurately predicts system responses.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep learning models have become more common, RNNs have been used to forecast increasingl…
We study super-replication of contingent claims in an illiquid market with model uncertainty. Illiquidity is captured by nonlinear transaction costs in discrete time and model uncertainty arises as our only assumption on stock price returns is that they are in a range specified by fixed volatility bounds. We provide a …
We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty. We propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from (conditioned on) past…
Machine Learning improves macroeconomic forecasting by capturing nonlinearities.
problem Improving macroeconomic forecasting accuracy.
method Study four features (nonlinearities, regularization, cross-validation, loss function) in data-rich and data-poor environments.
result Nonlinearity is the key to improving forecasting accuracy.
We consider the binary classification problem when data are large and subject to unknown but bounded uncertainties. We address the problem by formulating the nonlinear support vector machine training problem with robust optimization. To do so, we analyze and propose two bounding schemes for uncertainties associated to …
Bayesian model learns physics laws from data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of uncertainty in discovering governing physical laws from data.
method Bayesian approach with leaf and root modules, Gaussian process for operators, automatic differentiation.
result Quantifies reliability of learned physics laws and propagates uncertainty.
We study time consistent dynamic pricing mechanisms of European contingent claims under uncertainty by using G framework introduced by Peng ([24]). We consider a financial market consisting of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modelled by a geometric generalized G-Brownian motion, which features the…
This paper tackles Bayesian system identification with probabilistic numerical methods.
problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data.
method Probabilistic Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) combined with probabilistic numerical integration.
result Efficient identification of latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements.
Model predicts composite structures assembly quality with input uncertainty.
problem Accurate prediction of dimensional deviations and residual stress in composite structures assembly.
method Neural Network Gaussian Process considering input uncertainty.
result NNGPIU model outperforms other methods for nonsmooth, nonlinear responses.
A framework detects nonlinear and interaction effects in epidemiological data with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of reliable inference for ML-discovered nonlinearities and interactions in epidemiological data.
method Combines Bayesian sparse regression, tree ensembles, and Shapley values.
result Valid uncertainty quantification for feature effects at the individual level.
We introduce GP-FNARX: a new model for nonlinear system identification based on a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) with filtered regressors (F) where the nonlinear regression problem is tackled using sparse Gaussian processes (GP). We integrate data pre-processing with system identification into a fully …
Surrogate models help predict complex systems with less computational cost.
problem Uncertainty in complex systems due to variability and external loads.
method Surrogate models trained on limited simulations to approximate full time-dependent response.
result Efficient surrogate models reduce computational expense for UQ in nonlinear dynamics.
Deep SSMs use neural networks to identify complex systems.
problem Identifying nonlinear systems with high uncertainty.
method Deep state space models with neural networks.
result Deep SSMs outperform traditional methods on benchmarks.
A novel model uses ODE-based random features to model nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Modeling highly nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertainty quantification.
method Compositions of physics-informed random features derived from ODEs, combined with deep Gaussian processes and approximate Bayesian inference.
result The model effectively captures nonlinear behavior in real-world multivariate time series data and achieves comparable performance to other models on benchmark tasks.
Bayesian framework for robust model discovery from noisy data.
problem Robust model discovery from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear systems.
method Bayesian differential programming using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and sparsity-promoting priors.
result Efficient inference of posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty.
We introduce and study a non-equilibrium continuous-time dynamical model of the price of a single asset traded by a population of heterogeneous interacting agents in the presence of uncertainty and regulatory constraints. The model takes into account (i) the price formation delay between decision and investment by the …
A new method reduces Volterra kernel complexity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in modeling nonlinear systems with Volterra series due to high model order.
method Bayesian Tensor Network Volterra kernel machines (BTN-V) using canonical polyadic decomposition.
result Competitive accuracy, enhanced uncertainty quantification, and reduced computational cost.
Enhances RSCNs with hybrid regularization for nonlinear dynamics.
problem Modeling nonlinear dynamic systems with uncertainties.
method Recurrent stochastic configuration networks with hybrid regularization.
result The method outperforms other models in nonlinear system identification and industrial tasks.
The paper generalizes Feynman-Kac formula for volatility uncertainty.
problem Calculating sublinear expectation under volatility uncertainty.
method Generalization of Feynman-Kac formula under different hypotheses.
result G-conditional expectation is a viscosity solution of a nonlinear PDE.
DGPFM uses deep Gaussian processes to map functions accurately and quantify uncertainty.
problem Learning mappings between functional spaces, especially when data are noisy, sparse, or irregularly sampled.
method Constructs a sequence of GP-based linear and nonlinear transformations directly in function space, leveraging kernel integral transforms, GP conditional means, and nonlinear activations sampled from Gaussian processes.
result Empirical results show DGPFM outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration.
We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a càdlàg nonlinear martingale which is also the value process of a superhedging problem. The superhedging strate…
Combines Gaussian processes and polynomial chaos for stochastic control.
problem Uncertainties in dynamic models lead to performance issues in predictive control.
method Combines Gaussian processes with polynomial chaos expansions to estimate probability distributions of nonlinear functions.
result Demonstrates accurate approximation and closed-loop performance in stochastic nonlinear model predictive control.
Bayesian methods solve complex nonlinear PDEs efficiently.
problem Solving nonlinear PDEs with high computational cost.
method Bayesian inference with approximate likelihood based on discretization.
result Probabilistic uncertainty quantification for PDE solutions is feasible.
Hybrid model integrates GATv2 and geostatistics for better spatial prediction and uncertainty.
problem Accurate spatial prediction and uncertainty quantification in epidemiology and risk analysis.
method Integrates Graph Attention Network (GATv2) with model-based geostatistics (MBG) to capture relational and spatial dependencies.
result Hybrid model improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to standalone models.
We study dynamic allocation problems for discrete time multi-armed bandits under uncertainty, based on the the theory of nonlinear expectations. We show that, under strong independence of the bandits and with some relaxation in the definition of optimality, a Gittins allocation index gives optimal choices. This involve…
Uncertainty propagation in nonlinear dynamic systems remains an outstanding problem in scientific computing and control. Numerous approaches have been developed, but are limited in their capability to tackle problems with more than a few uncertain variables or require large amounts of simulation data. In this paper, we…
Proposes a new method for nonlinear models with robustness guarantees.
problem Distributional robustness in nonlinear models with causality.
method Representation learning and identifiable representation learning.
result First causality-inspired robustness method with finite-radius guarantees in nonlinear settings.
We propose a fast inference method for Bayesian nonlinear support vector machines that leverages stochastic variational inference and inducing points. Our experiments show that the proposed method is faster than competing Bayesian approaches and scales easily to millions of data points. It provides additional features …
A novel method to propagate uncertainty through the soft-thresholding nonlinearity is proposed in this paper. At every layer the current distribution of the target vector is represented as a spike and slab distribution, which represents the probabilities of each variable being zero, or Gaussian-distributed. Using the p…
High-dimensional partial differential equations (PDE) appear in a number of models from the financial industry, such as in derivative pricing models, credit valuation adjustment (CVA) models, or portfolio optimization models. The PDEs in such applications are high-dimensional as the dimension corresponds to the number …
ProFnet models HDFTS with neural networks, offering scalable probabilistic forecasts.
problem Modeling high-dimensional functional time series with nonlinear trends and high spatial dimensions.
method Integrates feedforward and deep neural networks with probabilistic modeling.
result Superior performance in forecasting Japan's mortality rates.
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the quantification of statistical uncertainty for these problems. However, when we are in a hea…
The paper introduces a fast algorithm for learning and forecasting nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
problem Challenges in capturing nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
method A projected nonlinear state-space model with kernel functions applied to projected lines.
result The model effectively learns and forecasts complex nonlinear dynamics with computational efficiency.
Investment and consumption strategy optimized under uncertain conditions.
problem Optimal investment and consumption under logarithmic utility and uncertainty model.
method Characterized using quadratic BSDE.
result Optimal solution found.
New methods improve uncertainty quantification in dynamic biological systems.
problem Uncertainty in dynamic biological models due to nonlinearity and parameter sensitivity.
method Conformal inference methods for non-asymptotic guarantees.
result Enhanced robustness and scalability for diverse biological data structures.
Neural ARFIMA model improves exchange rate forecasting for BRIC economies.
problem Forecasting exchange rates for emerging markets with long-term memory and nonlinear dynamics.
method Integrates ARFIMA for long-memory with neural networks for nonlinear approximation.
result NARFIMA model outperforms benchmarks in BRIC exchange rate forecasting.
Expands experimental design for causal discovery from limited data.
problem Challenges in causal discovery from observational and interventional data.
method Bayesian optimal experimental design incorporating recent advances in causal discovery.
result Active causal discovery of large, nonlinear SCMs with both intervention target and value selection.
Study robust utility maximization with uncertain continuous semimartingales.
problem Maximizing utility in continuous time under model uncertainty.
method Duality and conjugate problems for logarithmic, exponential, and power utilities.
result Existence of optimal portfolios for various utilities.
Physics-guided model improves deep learning for nonlinear systems.
problem Intractable inference of nonlinear dynamical systems from data.
method Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM) using neural networks.
result Improved performance on nonlinear systems with structured latent space.
Coupled entropy corrects flaws in Tsallis entropy for complex systems.
problem Misinterpretation of generalized temperature and entropy.
method Derived from generalized Pareto and Student's t distributions.
result Provides balanced measure of uncertainty for complex systems.
Simplifies neural regression by combining two sub-networks for predictions and uncertainties.
problem Neural networks underestimate uncertainty, leading to overly confident predictions.
method Extends IRLS to a two-sub-network approach with shared representations and complementary loss functions.
result Proposed network is simpler to implement and more robust to uncertainty variations.