Empirical mode modeling improves state-space analysis of noisy data.
problem Analyzing nonlinear systems with noisy data.
method Combining empirical mode decomposition with empirical dynamic modeling.
result Empirical mode modeling enhances state-space representations in noisy data.
Paper uses variational inference to estimate nonlinear models.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational inference approach for nonlinear state-space models.
result The method provides robust parameter estimates and outperforms alternatives.
Deep SSMs use neural networks to identify complex systems.
problem Identifying nonlinear systems with high uncertainty.
method Deep state space models with neural networks.
result Deep SSMs outperform traditional methods on benchmarks.
State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dy…
Stanza models complex time series with balance between traditional and deep learning approaches.
problem Capturing long-term structure in non-stationary time series.
method Nonlinear, non-stationary state space model.
result Achieves forecasting accuracy competitive with deep LSTMs, especially for multi-step ahead forecasting.
The paper introduces a fast algorithm for learning and forecasting nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
problem Challenges in capturing nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
method A projected nonlinear state-space model with kernel functions applied to projected lines.
result The model effectively learns and forecasts complex nonlinear dynamics with computational efficiency.
Improved state estimation in nonlinear models using amortized backward variational inference.
problem State estimation in general state-space models.
method Amortized backward variational inference with neural network parameters.
result Linear growth of variational approximation error in number of observations.
Bayesian filtering approach identifies nonlinear restoring forces in dynamic systems.
problem Identification of nonlinear dynamic systems in engineering.
method Modeling the nonlinear restoring force as a Gaussian process, converting it to a state-space model, and inferring internal states and the nonlinear restoring force through filtering and smoothing.
result The approach effectively identifies nonlinear restoring forces in both simulated and experimental datasets.
MambaStock predicts stock prices with high accuracy using a state space model.
problem Inaccurate stock price predictions due to nonlinearity in stock market data.
method Mamba-based state space model with selection mechanism and scan module.
result MambaStock outperforms previous methods in stock price prediction accuracy.
Develops a flexible model for regime transitions in time series data.
problem Nonlinear and context-dependent regime transitions in time series data.
method Semi-parametric state-space model with learned transition functions.
result Improved recovery of nonlinear transition dynamics and earlier detection of regime changes.
SSMs combined with neural networks match Transformers in dynamic token selection.
problem Understanding the capabilities of SSMs in dynamic token selection.
method Exploring SSMs combined with fully connected neural networks.
result SSMs combined with nonlinear layers can efficiently solve challenging tasks and estimate functions.
We consider a nonlinear state-space model with the state transition and observation functions expressed as basis function expansions. The coefficients in the basis function expansions are learned from data. Using a connection to Gaussian processes we also develop priors on the coefficients, for tuning the model flexibi…
Bayesian state and parameter estimation for nonlinear models using variational methods.
problem Estimating states and parameters for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational approach to approximate the intractable Bayesian distribution, resulting in an optimisation problem.
result The proposed method efficiently computes Bayesian estimates for nonlinear models, outperforming Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in numerical examples.
The paper introduces a new pairs trading model using nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
problem Developing a robust trading strategy for pairs of assets with non-Gaussian and heteroskedastic innovations.
method A nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space model for the spread between two assets, with mean reversion modeled as a mean-reverting process.
result The new trading strategy yields significantly higher returns and Sharpe ratios compared to existing methods.
This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an implementation of the PMH algorithm …
A new method learns complex dynamical systems from data efficiently.
problem Learning complex dynamical systems from large-scale data efficiently.
method Low-rank structured variational autoencoding framework for nonlinear Gaussian state-space models.
result Consistently demonstrates better predictive capabilities compared to other models.
We introduce Deep Variational Bayes Filters (DVBF), a new method for unsupervised learning and identification of latent Markovian state space models. Leveraging recent advances in Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes, DVBF can overcome intractable inference distributions via variational inference. Thus, it can handle …
Predictability enables efficient parallelization of nonlinear models.
problem Understanding which nonlinear state space models can be efficiently parallelized.
method Established a relationship between system dynamics and optimization problem conditioning, quantified by the largest Lyapunov exponent.
result Predictable systems can be evaluated in O((logT)2) time, improving over conventional sequential approaches. State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time series. The challenge is two-fold: not only do computations scale linearly with t…
IBPF algorithm tackles high-dimensional parameter learning for complex systems.
problem Learning high-dimensional parameters in complex, partially observed, and nonlinear systems.
method Iterated Block Particle Filter (IBPF) for graphical state space models.
result IBPF algorithm consistently beats the curse of dimensionality across various experiments.
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation using Newton's method in nonlinear state space models (SSMs) is a challenging problem due to the analytical intractability of the log-likelihood and its gradient and Hessian. We estimate the gradient and Hessian using Fisher's identity in combination with a smoothing algorithm. We exp…
In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable as it involves integrals of general nonlinear functions and the filtered and sm…
This research improves dynamical systems understanding by identifying latent states and their nonlinear transitions.
problem Previous work on dynamical systems could not identify nonlinear transition dynamics, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Proposes a state-space modeling framework using variational auto-encoders to identify latent states and their nonlinear transition functions.
result Demonstrates high accuracy in recovering latent state dynamics and future prediction accuracy.
Bayesian model learns multiscale interactions in complex systems.
problem Understanding dynamic interplay between processes at different time scales.
method Bayesian learning framework with Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling (PGAS) algorithm.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approach through simulations.
Develops VAEs for learning complex physical systems from data.
problem Learning low-dimensional representations of nonlinear physical systems.
method Variational Autoencoders with manifold latent spaces.
result Effective in learning nonlinear Burgers equation and constrained mechanical systems.
A new method for estimating adversarial strategies in nonlinear systems.
problem Inferring an intelligent adversarial agent's strategy in highly nonlinear systems.
method Formulated inverse cognition as a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model and developed an inverse UKF (IUKF) system.
result The estimation error of IUKF converges and closely follows the recursive Cramér-Rao lower bound.
Dual Bayesian Affine Estimators for Wiener-type state-space models
problem Estimating parameters in Wiener-type state-space models
method Fixed-point architecture combining two affine estimators
result Dual basis-parameter estimator achieves comparable parameter MSE to purely affine estimator
Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad class of linear and non-linear state space mod…
Hybrid model improves sequential data prediction by combining neural and time series models.
problem Nonlinear prediction in online settings with domain-specific feature engineering issues.
method Joint optimization of LSTM for feature extraction and SARIMAX for time series data using state space representations.
result Significant improvements in real-life competition datasets.
Federated learning interprets temporal dynamics across clients with graph attention.
problem Interpreting temporal patterns across decentralized, heterogeneous systems with nonlinear dynamics.
method Graph Attention Network for learning state transition models over latent states communicated between clients.
result First interpretable characterization of cross-client temporal interdependencies in decentralized nonlinear systems.
We extend Neural Processes (NPs) to sequential data through Recurrent NPs or RNPs, a family of conditional state space models. RNPs model the state space with Neural Processes. Given time series observed on fast real-world time scales but containing slow long-term variabilities, RNPs may derive appropriate slow latent …
Framework models multiscale dynamics with Bayesian learning for regime changes.
problem Analyzing complex interactions between fast and slow processes.
method Hierarchical state-space modeling with Sequential Monte Carlo.
result Bayesian approach accurately tracks state transitions and identifies switching dynamics.
Unified deep sequential and state-space models for robust option pricing with uncertainty.
problem Combining robustness to noise and uncertainty measurement in option pricing models.
method Unscattered reservoir smoother (URS) integrating deep sequential and state-space models.
result URS achieves competitive forecasting accuracy and uncertainty measurement in noisy datasets.
This work studies learning dynamics in SSMs, linking them to deep linear networks.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of SSMs, especially in deep state spaces.
method Analyzes learning dynamics of linear SSMs, focusing on frequency domain, and establishes links to deep linear networks.
result Analytical solutions for SSM learning dynamics under mild assumptions, linking to deep linear networks.
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gauss…
One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more than two decades ago), provide numerical solutions to the nonlinear state estima…
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.
Method estimates observation functions in state-space models without supervision.
problem Unsupervised learning of non-invertible observation functions in nonlinear state-space models.
method Nonparametric generalized moment method using constrained regression.
result Estimates function space of identifiability from state process.
S2P2 model improves predictive likelihoods for MTPPs.
problem Modeling irregular time intervals in event sequences.
method State-space point process model using deep state-space techniques.
result Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods.
State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors. However, SSM is significantly influenced by the choice of the proposal. Recently Ha…
Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters governing the properties of this nonparametric representation. The Bayesian formalism e…
We propose a novel method for maximum likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate the value of the log-likelihood function at the current parameter iterate. Using …
Paper develops efficient recursive learning for multi-channel systems with heterogeneous dynamics.
problem Accurately learning system dynamics in complex, multi-channel systems with nonlinear and noisy data.
method Formulates system as Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs), introduces heterogeneous multi-output kernel, and develops recursive inference framework.
result Matches SOTA offline GPSSMs in accuracy with 1/100 runtime, and outperforms SOTA online GPSSMs by 70% in accuracy under noise with 1/20 runtime.
We consider filtering in high-dimensional non-Gaussian state-space models with intractable transition kernels, nonlinear and possibly chaotic dynamics, and sparse observations in space and time. We propose a novel filtering methodology that harnesses transportation of measures, convex optimization, and ideas from proba…
New nonlinear smoothers improve state estimation in chaotic systems.
problem Improving state estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian behavior.
method Developed nonlinear backward ensemble transport smoothers with parameterization and regularization of transport maps.
result Nonlinear smoothers yield lower estimation error than conventional methods for comparable model evaluations.
How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural generative model. The c…
In many scientific fields, such as economics and neuroscience, we are often faced with nonstationary time series, and concerned with both finding causal relations and forecasting the values of variables of interest, both of which are particularly challenging in such nonstationary environments. In this paper, we study c…
Improved state estimation in high-dimensional models using Zig-Zag Sampler.
problem Weight degeneracy in particle filtering methods for high-dimensional state space models.
method Discrete Zig-Zag Sampler applied within the Composite MH Kernel of SMCMC framework.
result Improves estimation accuracy and increases acceptance ratio in high-dimensional state estimation.