We present a new method for nonlinear prediction of discrete random sequences under minimal structural assumptions. We give a mathematical construction for optimal predictors of such processes, in the form of hidden Markov models. We then describe an algorithm, CSSR (Causal-State Splitting Reconstruction), which approx…
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48 results for “nonlinear predictors”
Deep neural networks improve AFT model for non-linear predictors.
problem Nonlinearity in predictors of AFT models.
method Apply DNNs to fit AFT models using Gehan-type loss and sub-sampling.
result DeepR-AFT outperforms parametric and semiparametric models.
Kernel Three-Pass Regression Filter improves forecasting efficiency for nonlinear dependencies.
problem Forecasting with high-dimensional predictors and latent factors.
method Developed a new estimator, Kernel Three-Pass Regression Filter (K3PRF), to address nonlinear dependencies.
result Empirically shows significant improvement in long-term forecasting performance.
This paper presents Sparse Partitioning, a Bayesian method for identifying predictors that either individually or in combination with others affect a response variable. The method is designed for regression problems involving binary or tertiary predictors and allows the number of predictors to exceed the size of the sa…
As data collections become larger, exploratory regression analysis becomes more important but more challenging. When observations are hierarchically clustered the problem is even more challenging because model selection with mixed effect models can produce misleading results when nonlinear effects are not included into…
This paper considers improved forecasting in possibly nonlinear dynamic settings, with high-dimension predictors ("big data" environments). To overcome the curse of dimensionality and manage data and model complexity, we examine shrinkage estimation of a back-propagation algorithm of a deep neural net with skip-layer c…
Transformations of macroeconomic data affect machine learning forecasts, especially with regularization and nonlinearity.
problem The impact of data transformations on machine learning forecasts in macroeconomic contexts.
method Review and propose new data transformations, empirically evaluate their effects, and compare traditional and moving average rotations.
result Traditional factors should almost always be included as predictors, and moving average rotations can provide important gains.
SplitWise enhances stepwise regression by adaptively encoding numeric predictors into binary features.
problem Capturing nonlinear relationships in regression models without sacrificing interpretability.
method Adaptive encoding of numeric predictors into binary features using shallow decision trees, assessed by AIC or BIC.
result Consistently produces more parsimonious and generalizable models than traditional techniques.
The paper develops exact and approximate conformal inference methods for multi-output regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-output regression predictions.
method Exact derivations and approximations of conformal inference p-values for linear multi-output predictors, and efficient methods for nonlinear predictors.
result Efficient methods for approximating conformal prediction regions for multi-output predictors, both linear and nonlinear.
RFMs transition from linear to nonlinear under specific input-label correlation.
problem Understanding the transition from linear to nonlinear behavior in RFMs.
method Analyzing RFMs under spiked covariance designs, characterizing the interaction between anisotropy and input-label correlation.
result The RFM generalization error is governed by the strength of input-label correlation, leading to a clear nonlinear advantage above a specific boundary.
In this paper we develop a method for learning nonlinear systems with multiple outputs and inputs. We begin by modelling the errors of a nominal predictor of the system using a latent variable framework. Then using the maximum likelihood principle we derive a criterion for learning the model. The resulting optimization…
Paper proposes SDDP for improving time series forecasting with high-dimensional predictors.
problem Improving time series forecasting with high-dimensional predictors.
method SDDP framework that incorporates target variable and lagged observations into factor extraction process.
result SDDP improves predictive accuracy in time series forecasting.
Assessing the overall and partial causal well-specification of nonlinear additive noise modelsstat.ME
Detects model misspecifications in causal models using observational data.
problem Identifying predictor variables with causal effects in misspecified models.
method Develops a general framework based on observational data distribution and proposes an algorithm for finite sample data.
result Identifies predictor variables for causal effects even in misspecified models.
Overparameterized MLR fits hyper-curves, improving model robustness.
problem Improper predictors degrade model generalizability.
method Parameterizing with a scalar and monomial basis, fitting hyper-curves.
result Hyper-curve approach yields robust predictions for noisy data.
New method converts LVAs into linear projections for better understanding of complex models.
problem Limited interpretability of nonlinear machine learning models.
method Animated linear projections and radial tours.
result Improved understanding of variable importance in complex models.
For a long time, designing neural architectures that exhibit high performance was considered a dark art that required expert hand-tuning. One of the few well-known guidelines for architecture design is the avoidance of exploding gradients, though even this guideline has remained relatively vague and circumstantial. We …
A new knockoff statistic using conditional prediction function improves variable selection in complex models.
problem Controlling false discovery rate in complex models with nonlinear relationships.
method Introducing a knockoff statistic based on the conditional prediction function for use with machine learning models.
result The CPF statistics provide superior power in detecting prognostic variables over existing knockoff statistics.
Unified framework for self-supervised learning via latent distribution matching.
problem Lack of a unifying theoretical framework for diverse SSL methods.
method Casting SSL as latent distribution matching (LDM): maximizing alignment and uniformity.
result Derives a Bayesian filtering model and proves identifiable latent representations.
New method for reducing dimensions of distributional data.
problem Nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction for distribution-on-distribution regression.
method Building universal kernels on metric spaces to characterize conditional independence.
result Method outperforms competing methods in synthetic and real data applications.
The paper uses machine learning to forecast macroeconomic outcomes with high-dimensional data.
problem Forecasting the full conditional distribution of macroeconomic outcomes.
method Systematically integrating three key principles: high-dimensional data with regularization, rigorous out-of-sample validation, and incorporating nonlinearities.
result Regularization via shrinkage is essential to control model complexity, while nonlinearities yield limited improvements in predictive accuracy.
This study compares various superlearner and deep learning architectures (machine-learning-based and neural-network-based) for classification problems across several simulated and industrial datasets to assess performance and computational efficiency, as both methods have nice theoretical convergence properties. Superl…
The central aim in this paper is to address variable selection questions in nonlinear and nonparametric regression. Motivated by statistical genetics, where nonlinear interactions are of particular interest, we introduce a novel and interpretable way to summarize the relative importance of predictor variables. Methodol…
Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited their application mostl…
Neural network predicts functional responses from scalar inputs.
problem Regression of functional responses with large scalar predictors and nonlinear relationships.
method Transform functional response to finite dimensions, design feed-forward neural network, modify output via objective functions, apply roughness penalty.
result Proposed neural network outperforms conventional methods in multiple scenarios.
The problem of subgroups is ubiquitous in scientific research (ex. disease heterogeneity, spatial distributions in ecology...), and piecewise regression is one way to deal with this phenomenon. Morse-Smale regression offers a way to partition the regression function based on level sets of a defined function and that fu…
Study finds option volume imbalance predicts equity market returns.
problem Predicting equity market returns using option volume imbalance.
method Nonlinear analysis of option volumes decomposed into five market participant classes.
result Strong signals of predictability of excess market returns from Market-Maker volumes.
New method uses G-expectation for financial risk measurement.
problem Measuring uncertainty in financial time series.
method Introducing G-normal distribution, applying max-mean estimators, and using autoregressive models.
result G-VaR model outperforms other VaR predictors in risk prediction.
New method finds invariant predictors to improve model robustness.
problem Machine learning models are brittle in new environments with spurious correlations.
method Formulates invariant risk minimization as a Nash equilibrium game.
result Algorithm yields similar or better accuracy with lower variance.
Neural networks learn task-specific features, influenced by nonlinearity.
problem Understanding the nature of task-dependent feature learning in neural networks.
method Investigation of fully-connected, wide neural networks using Bayesian framework.
result The nature of internal representations depends on neuronal nonlinearity, leading to analog, redundant, or sparse coding schemes.
New method linearizes nonlinear coupled oscillators on graphs.
problem Predicting global synchronization in nonlinear coupled oscillators on graphs.
method Latent dynamic filters learned through supervised matrix factorization.
result Latent dynamics filters enable effective prediction of global synchronization.
Nonlinear Model Order Reduction of Dynamical Systems in Process Engineering: Review and Comparisoneess.SY
Review and compare model order reduction methods for process engineering.
problem Creating computationally efficient yet accurate models for real-time applications.
method Nonlinear model order reduction methods, including general-purpose and tailored approaches for chemical processes.
result Comparison of eight model order reduction methods applied to an air separation process model.
We consider forecasting a single time series using a large number of predictors in the presence of a possible nonlinear forecast function. Assuming that the predictors affect the response through the latent factors, we propose to first conduct factor analysis and then apply sufficient dimension reduction on the estimat…
Proposes a new AFT model for nonlinear survival data.
problem Limited ability of classical AFT models to represent nonlinear relationships and handle complex covariate structures.
method Structured nonparametric extension using Kolmogorov--Arnold representations and unified censoring-adjusted losses.
result Method captures nonlinear effects and recovers linear structure when appropriate.
Training classification models on imbalanced data tends to result in bias towards the majority class. In this paper, we demonstrate how variable discretization and cost-sensitive logistic regression help mitigate this bias on an imbalanced credit scoring dataset, and further show the application of the variable discret…
Functional PLS improves prediction and inference for scalar responses from functional predictors.
problem Estimating scalar responses from functional predictors in an ill-posed inverse problem.
method Functional partial least squares (PLS) estimator with adaptive early stopping and new tests.
result PLS attains nearly minimax-optimal convergence rates and detects local alternatives.
Statsformer validates and adapts LLM-derived semantic priors for improved supervised learning.
problem Unreliable semantic priors from LLMs can degrade supervised learning performance.
method Adapts LLM-derived feature scores into a family of learner-specific prior-injection mechanisms, calibrating their influence using out-of-fold validation.
result Improves prediction performance by adaptively downweighting unreliable LLM priors, ensuring a guardrailed statistical learning system.
Proposes a machine learning predictor for survey data.
problem Limited integration of machine learning in traditional surveys.
method Predictor supported by machine learning algorithms, analyzing departures from model assumptions.
result Machine learning predictors are a good alternative, even under small departures from model assumptions.
A new method for Bayesian neural networks using probabilistic backpropagation.
problem Approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian neural networks.
method Variational Expectation Propagation (VEP) with probabilistic backpropagation.
result Efficient algorithm for approximate integration over posterior distributions.
A residual network (or ResNet) is a standard deep neural net architecture, with state-of-the-art performance across numerous applications. The main premise of ResNets is that they allow the training of each layer to focus on fitting just the residual of the previous layer's output and the target output. Thus, we should…
Predicting outcomes and planning interactions with the physical world are long-standing goals for machine learning. A variety of such tasks involves continuous physical systems, which can be described by partial differential equations (PDEs) with many degrees of freedom. Existing methods that aim to control the dynamic…
Optimizes prediction error method for time-varying models.
problem Achieving optimal prediction error rates for time-varying models.
method Nonlinear least squares method for time-varying parametric models.
result First rate-optimal non-asymptotic analysis for time-varying models.
Supervised learning frequently boils down to determining hidden and bright parameters in a parameterized hypothesis space based on finite input-output samples. The hidden parameters determine the attributions of hidden predictors or the nonlinear mechanism of an estimator, while the bright parameters characterize how h…
Proposes iCaRL for nonlinear OOD generalization in causal settings.
problem Machine learning systems fail to generalize to new environments.
method iCaRL, leveraging exponential family distributions and causal discovery.
result Generalization guarantees in nonlinear settings for both representations and classifiers.
Develops MGQDA for multi-group classification with theoretical guarantees and practical applications.
problem Complex multi-group classification problems with nonlinear decision boundaries and group-specific covariance patterns.
method MGQDA, a method based on quadratic discriminant analysis that projects predictors onto a lower-dimensional subspace.
result MGQDA achieves competitive or improved predictive performance compared to existing methods.
Measurement noise limits the advantage of nonlinear models over linear models in biomedical prediction
problem Nonlinear models vs. linear models in biomedical prediction
method Measurement reliability
result Measurement noise blurs the population-optimal predictor
We present a numerical approach for solving the free boundary problem for the Black-Scholes equation for pricing American style of floating strike Asian options. A fixed domain transformation of the free boundary problem into a parabolic equation defined on a fixed spatial domain is performed. As a result a nonlinear t…
ICODEN models survival data with interval-censored times using neural networks and ODEs.
problem Predicting time-to-event outcomes with interval-censored data, especially when models require strong assumptions or cannot handle high-dimensional predictors.
method ICODEN uses ordinary differential equations and deep neural networks to model the hazard function and cumulative hazard without proportional hazards assumption.
result ICODEN achieves satisfactory predictive accuracy across various simulation and real-world applications, handling high-dimensional predictors robustly.
Deep learning applies hierarchical layers of hidden variables to construct nonlinear high dimensional predictors. Our goal is to develop and train deep learning architectures for spatio-temporal modeling. Training a deep architecture is achieved by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and drop-out (DO) for parameter regul…