The new business paradigms originate a strong necessity to re-think the theory of the firm with the aim to get a better understanding on the organizational and functional principles of the firm, operating in the investment economies in the prosperous societies. In this connection, we make the innovative research to adv…
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48 results for “nonlinear economics”
The accurate characterization of the business cycles in the nonlinear dynamic financial and economic systems in the time of globalization represents a formidable research problem. The central banks and other financial institutions make their decisions on the minimum capital requirements, countercyclical capital buffer …
We develop a new DTSM with nonlinearities using Gaussian Processes for better interest rate forecasting.
problem Linear DTSMs fail to capture nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic variables and interest rates.
method We propose a Gaussian Process-based sequential Monte Carlo estimation and forecasting scheme.
result Nonlinear models outperform linear ones in forecasting core inflation, leading to significant economic value gains.
Chaos and nonlinear economic dynamics are addressed for a quantum coupled map lattice model of an artificial economy, with quantized supply and demand equilibrium conditions. The measure theoretic properties and the patterns that emerge in both the economic business volume dynamics' diagrams as well as in the quantum m…
The econophysics approach to socio-economic systems is based on the assumption of their complexity. Such assumption inevitably lead to another assumption, namely that underlying interconnections within socio-economic systems, particularly financial markets, are nonlinear, which is shown to be true even in mainstream ec…
The purpose of this research article is to discover how the econophysics analysis can complement the econometrics models in application to the risk management in the central banks and financial institutions, operating within the nonlinear dynamical financial system. We consider the modern risk management models and sho…
Study on identifying and inferring nonlinear dynamics on unknown networks.
problem Identifying network structure in nonlinear dynamic systems with unknown interactions.
method Showed network structure is not generically identified, requiring sufficient spectral heterogeneity. Developed necessary and sufficient conditions for identification and proposed a semiparametric estimator.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for identification of network structure in nonlinear dynamic systems.
Machine learning improves economic forecasting during the pandemic.
problem Forecasting economic downturns during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Use of machine learning methods to capture nonlinearity in macroeconomic data.
result Some nonlinear ML methods can extrapolate and improve forecasting accuracy.
We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of microeconomic variables and their determination is reduced to the computation of the partition…
Solves specific mean-field game equations with ODEs.
problem Mean-field game equations in economic applications.
method Reduces coupled PDEs to a quadratically nonlinear system of ODEs.
result Shows specific data leads to solvable ODE system.
A new SOHP filter improves trend estimation in economic time series.
problem Improving trend estimation in nonlinear economic time series.
method Recursive application of one-sided HP filter on updated cyclical components, combined with an incremental HP filtering algorithm.
result Better performance of SOHP filter compared to other HP-type filters on real economic data.
Enhances FAVAR models with autoencoder for better economic forecasting and interpretability.
problem Limitations of linear FAVAR models in forecasting and structural analysis.
method Introduces Grouped Sparse autoencoder with time-varying parameters.
result The Grouped Sparse autoencoder produces more interpretable factors and superior forecasting performance.
We study association between macroeconomic news and stock market returns using the statistical theory of copulas, and a new comprehensive measure of news based on the indexing of news wires. We find the impact of economic news on equity returns to be nonlinear and asymmetric. In particular, controlling for economic con…
DRL enhances economic modeling with deep learning methods.
problem Complex dynamic business environments in economics.
method Comprehensive review of DL, RL, and deep RL methods applied to economics.
result DRL provides better performance and higher accuracy in economic applications.
Deep-MacroFin uses neural networks to solve complex economic models efficiently.
problem Solving high-dimensional partial differential equations in continuous time economics.
method Leverages deep learning, specifically Multi-Layer Perceptrons and Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks, optimized with HJB equations.
result Offers a more efficient solution (5 less memory, 40 fewer FLOPs) for 50D economic models.
Are large complex economic systems unstable ?physics.soc-ph
Although classical economic theory is based on the concept of stable equilibrium, real economic systems appear to be always out of equilibrium. Indeed, they share many of the dynamical features of other complex systems, e.g., ecological food-webs. We focus on the relation between increasing complexity of the economic n…
The aim of this paper is to construct a natural Riemann-Lagrange differential geometry on 1-jet spaces, in the sense of nonlinear connections, generalized Cartan connections, d-torsions, d-curvatures, jet electromagnetic fields and jet Yang-Mills energies, starting from some given non-linear evolution DEs systems model…
PENN neural network estimates parameter distributions for econ models.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep neural networks for econ applications.
method Generative neural network architecture for Bayesian inference.
result PENN provides interpretable parameter estimates and visualizations.
New algorithms solve weak optimal transport problems for nonlinear costs.
problem Computing weak optimal transport with nonlinear costs.
method Mirror descent algorithms for primal and dual versions of WOT.
result Solutions for WOT and WOTUK compared with classical OT.
We present examples of agent-based and stochastic models of competition and business processes in economics and finance. We start from as simple as possible models, which have microscopic, agent-based, versions and macroscopic treatment in behavior. Microscopic and macroscopic versions of herding model proposed by Kirm…
Payments data and machine learning improve nowcasting accuracy for macroeconomic indicators.
problem Lagged indicators in linear models are insufficient during crisis periods.
method Non-traditional payments data, nonlinear machine learning, and tailored cross-validation.
result Improved macroeconomic nowcasting accuracy up to 40% during crises.
New method tests independence with single nonstationary time series.
problem Testing independence in nonstationary nonlinear time series.
method Time-varying nonlinear regression, local long-run covariance estimation, strong Gaussian approximation.
result First framework for conditional independence testing with a single realization of a nonstationary nonlinear process.
Chaos Models in Economicsnlin.CD
The paper discusses the main ideas of the chaos theory and presents mainly the importance of the nonlinearities in the mathematical models. Chaos and order are apparently two opposite terms. The fact that in chaos can be found a certain precise symmetry (Feigenbaum numbers) is even more surprising. As an illustration o…
Structural Sievesecon.EM
The paper uses deep neural networks to estimate economic models without separability restrictions.
problem Estimating economic models with complex interaction effects and non-separable restrictions.
method Uses deep neural networks as a nonparametric sieve to approximate regression functions from nonlinear latent variable models.
result Economic shape, sparsity, or separability restrictions are imposed more straightforwardly when a flexible latent variable model is used.
While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection repose upon linear time series assumptions, many interactions in neuroscience and economics applications are nonlinear. We develop an approach to nonlinear Granger causality detection using multilayer perceptrons where the input to the network is the past t…
Paper solves best approximation by exponential functions for economic data.
problem Best approximation of data by exponential functions.
method TAC algorithm for fitting data by exponential patterns.
result TAC algorithm successfully applied to demand curves and nonlinear time series.
Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time…
The sustainability conditions for the market participants with a different ownership model were also determined. It was revealed, that the nonlinear form of the equations describing the market behavior with the prevailing private capital, predetermines the development of such a market according to the subharmonic casca…
Understanding international trade is a fundamental problem in economics -- one standard approach is via what is commonly called the "gravity equation", which predicts the total amount of trade between two countries and as where is a constant, denote …
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector level. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctu…
In this paper, we introduce quantile coherency to measure general dependence structures emerging in the joint distribution in the frequency domain and argue that this type of dependence is natural for economic time series but remains invisible when only the traditional analysis is employed. We define estimators which c…
Predicting one type of technological motion? A nonlinear map to study the 'sailing-ship' effectphysics.soc-ph
Study of dynamic competition between old and new technologies using a nonlinear map.
problem Dynamic competition between old and new technologies in market share.
method Simulations with three key parameters: scientific-technological, purely technological, and economic.
result Different outcomes in terms of technology prevalence based on interaction of key parameters.
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1…
Large and Deep Factor Modelsq-fin.ST
Deep neural networks decompose SDF into linear and nonlinear components.
problem Constructing accurate stochastic discount factors (SDFs) for pricing.
method Additive decomposition of a deep neural network trained to construct SDFs.
result The PTK representation delivers significant performance gains in equity data.
New method for nonlinear Granger causality improves predictive relationships.
problem Challenges in applying Granger causality to nonlinear data.
method Permutation of covariate set, artificial neural networks, consistent variance estimation.
result Permutation method outperforms other techniques in predicting nonlinear relationships.
A new method models financial returns by separating sign and magnitude, improving forecasting accuracy.
problem Capturing nonlinear predictability in financial return dynamics.
method Decomposes returns into sign and magnitude components, using a joint distribution model.
result Significantly outperforms traditional linear models in forecasting U.S. stock market returns.
Linear and nonlinear market correlations: characterizing financial crises and portfolio optimizationq-fin.ST
Pearson correlation and mutual information based complex networks of the day-to-day returns of US S&P500 stocks between 1985 and 2015 have been constructed in order to investigate the mutual dependencies of the stocks and their nature. We show that both networks detect qualitative differences especially during (recent)…
We educe a perspective on how best to regulate the bank of tomorrow in frames of debate launched by the International Centre for Financial Regulation and Financial Times. Our goal is to create a conceptual framework for policymakers and regulators to shape the international financial system in century of globalization …
A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of economic growth, and how credit may be associated with both economic performance and…
We describe the innovations in finances, introduced over the recent decades, and analyze most of the business and regulatory challenges, faced by the financial industry, because of the present disruptive changes in the global capital markets. We use the integrative thinking approach to formulate the new central bank st…
Survey of machine learning methods for time series forecasting.
problem Improving accuracy of time series predictions.
method Linear and nonlinear machine learning models, including neural networks and ensemble methods.
result Demonstrates superior predictive ability of certain machine learning models.
Traditional models of macroeconomic dynamics are fundamentally incorrect. The reason lies in a misunderstanding of peculiarities of the analysis of infinitesimal quantities. However, even those types of solutions that are envisaged by the above-mentioned models are nonrepresentative in the sense of the reflection of re…
Asymmetric Nonlinear Return Extrapolation and Optimal Portfolio Choice under Stochastic Volatilityq-fin.PM
We extend return extrapolation to incorporate asymmetry and saturation, finding that asymmetric nonlinear extrapolation leads to lower welfare loss.
problem Optimal portfolio choice under stochastic volatility
method Smooth, nonlinear extrapolation function with sentiment and variance hedging
result Lower welfare loss with asymmetric nonlinear extrapolation
Paper proves existence and uniqueness of solutions to nonlocal systems, generalizing stochastic game theory.
problem Time inconsistency in stochastic differential games.
method Proves existence and uniqueness of solutions to nonlocal fully-nonlinear parabolic systems.
result Generalizes stochastic game theory to include time-inconsistent preferences.
TailCoRq-fin.ST
TailCoR measures co-movement of financial crises events.
problem Measuring co-movement of financial crises events.
method Combines linear and non-linear dependencies using tail inter quantile range.
result TailCoR performs well in small samples and no optimisations are needed.
Combines Gaussian processes and polynomial chaos for stochastic control.
problem Uncertainties in dynamic models lead to performance issues in predictive control.
method Combines Gaussian processes with polynomial chaos expansions to estimate probability distributions of nonlinear functions.
result Demonstrates accurate approximation and closed-loop performance in stochastic nonlinear model predictive control.
Econophysics has developed as a research field that applies the formalism of Statistical Mechanics and Quantum Mechanics to address Economics and Finance problems. The branch of Econophysics that applies of Quantum Theory to Economics and Finance is called Quantum Econophysics. In Finance, Quantum Econophysics' contrib…
Fair Kernel Learningstat.ML
New social and economic activities massively exploit big data and machine learning algorithms to do inference on people's lives. Applications include automatic curricula evaluation, wage determination, and risk assessment for credits and loans. Recently, many governments and institutions have raised concerns about the …