Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direct…
Detects model misspecifications in causal models using observational data.
problem Identifying predictor variables with causal effects in misspecified models.
method Develops a general framework based on observational data distribution and proposes an algorithm for finite sample data.
result Identifies predictor variables for causal effects even in misspecified models.
Paper uses variational inference to estimate nonlinear models.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models.
method Variational inference approach for nonlinear state-space models.
result The method provides robust parameter estimates and outperforms alternatives.
New convergence bounds for online learning with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Learning on streaming data with heavy-tailed noise.
method Nonlinear stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for non-convex and strongly convex costs.
result Strong convergence rates for various nonlinearities and noise distributions.
New method recovers causal graphs from data scores in non-linear models.
problem Recovering causal graphs from data scores in non-linear models.
method Score matching algorithms and efficient Jacobian approximation.
result New method, SCORE, is competitive and faster than state-of-the-art methods.
A new method for identifying causal directions in complex systems.
problem Identifying causal relationships in nonlinear systems with limited data.
method Sequential edge orientation approach using pairwise additive noise model.
result The method can recover true causal DAGs under nonlinear additive noise models.
Causal Mosaic distinguishes cause from effect using nonlinear ICA and ensemble methods.
problem Distinguishing cause from effect in bivariate settings.
method Nonlinear ICA and ensemble framework (Causal Mosaic).
result Causal Mosaic shows state-of-the-art performance on artificial and real-world datasets.
Proposes engression for extrapolation in distributional regression.
problem Challenging extrapolation problem in nonlinear regression.
method Neural network-based distributional regression.
result Engression successfully performs extrapolation under certain assumptions.
Identifies shifts in causal mechanisms between related datasets using ANMs.
problem Estimating the full causal structure from data is challenging; focus on identifying shifts in causal mechanisms.
method Assumes nonlinear additive noise models, uses Jacobian of score function for mixture distribution to identify shifts.
result Shows applicability of the approach on synthetic and real-world data.
Method estimates bivariate causal models using normalising flows and variational Gaussian process regression.
problem Lack of explainability in AI models, especially in causal mechanisms.
method Combination of normalising flows for density estimation and variational Gaussian process regression for post-nonlinear models.
result Method better explains cause-effect pairs than simple additive noise models.
Measurement noise limits the advantage of nonlinear models over linear models in biomedical prediction
problem Nonlinear models vs. linear models in biomedical prediction
method Measurement reliability
result Measurement noise blurs the population-optimal predictor
Constraint-based structure learning algorithms infer the causal structure of multivariate systems from observational data by determining an equivalent class of causal structures compatible with the conditional independencies in the data. Methods based on additive-noise (AN) models have been proposed to further discrimi…
We propose a method for inferring the existence of a latent common cause ('confounder') of two observed random variables. The method assumes that the two effects of the confounder are (possibly nonlinear) functions of the confounder plus independent, additive noise. We discuss under which conditions the model is identi…
We use the score function for causal discovery, tackling challenges with hidden variables.
problem Causal discovery from observational data with hidden variables.
method Fine-tuning identifiability results, establishing conditions for inferring causal relations from the score, proposing a flexible algorithm.
result Empirical validation of the proposed algorithm for causal discovery on linear, nonlinear, and latent variable models.
New method identifies causal graphs with limited data and noise.
problem Identifying causal graphs from observational data is generally impossible.
method Using additional data from two environments with different noise statistics, and assuming Gaussian noise.
result The entire causal graph can be uniquely identified with a constant number of environments.
Study on signal-plus-noise decomposition in nonlinear spiked random matrices.
problem Nonlinear spiked random matrix models with rank-one signal and noise.
method Signal-plus-noise decomposition and phase transition analysis.
result Identified precise phase transitions in signal components at critical thresholds.
New method learns nonlinear systems from single finite trajectory samples.
problem Learning stabilizable nonlinear systems from single finite trajectory samples.
method Gradient-based algorithms with noise-sensitive uniform convergence guarantees.
result Efficient learning of general nonlinear systems with high accuracy and small sample complexity.
Greedy MI maximization method outperforms existing approaches in nonlinear models.
problem Maximizing mutual information in nonlinear models with non-Gaussian noise.
method Greedy approaches based on log-Sobolev inequalities for computationally inexpensive MI lower bounds.
result Proposed method outperforms random selection and Gaussian approximations.
Examines WENDy-IRLS algorithm's noise robustness and efficiency in various differential equations.
problem Noise robustness and efficiency of WENDy-IRLS algorithm.
method Studied coverage and bias properties of WENDy-IRLS algorithm's estimators in various differential equations and noise distributions.
result WENDy-IRLS algorithm shows notable noise robustness and computational efficiency.
New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.
problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.
Stochastic VB improves nonlinear model inference speed and accuracy.
problem Bayesian inference of nonlinear models from noisy data.
method Stochastic Variational Bayesian (VB) inference for nonlinear models.
result Stochastic VB achieves comparable parameter recovery to analytical solution but is faster.
LANCA uses ANM to learn latent causal factors without supervision.
problem Learning latent causal factors without supervision.
method LANCA employs a deterministic Wasserstein Auto-Encoder coupled with a differentiable ANM Layer.
result LANCA outperforms baselines on physics and photorealistic environments.
Study nonparametric factor analysis with arbitrary noise.
problem Identify latent variables in noisy, non-invertible settings.
method Developed a general framework and estimation methods.
result Identify latent variables up to certain indeterminacies.
We develop a framework for learning sparse nonparametric directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Our approach is based on a recent algebraic characterization of DAGs that led to a fully continuous program for score-based learning of DAG models parametrized by a linear structural equation model (SEM). We extend this a…
Estimates effects of multiple interventions with hidden confounders using single-variable interventions.
problem Estimating effects of multiple interventions in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Identifiability under nonlinear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise; pooling and joint likelihood maximization.
result Proven identifiability and superior performance compared to baseline.
Bayesian method improves forecasting of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems with noise.
problem Forecasting nonseparable Hamiltonian systems with multiplicative noise.
method Bayesian approach using deep learning and reduced-order modeling.
result Bayesian method yields up to 724 times improvement in forecasting accuracy.
In nonlinear latent variable models or dynamic models, if we consider the latent variables as confounders (common causes), the noise dependencies imply further relations between the observed variables. Such models are then closely related to causal discovery in the presence of nonlinear confounders, which is a challeng…
Deep learning approximates SPDE solutions from noise trajectories.
problem Approximating solutions to stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs).
method Uses neural networks to approximate SPDE solutions based on noise realizations.
result Accurately estimates SPDE solutions and functionals like mean and variance.
Extends causal discovery to group variables, improving performance in real-world applications.
problem Inferring cause-effect relationships from grouped data.
method Two-step approach: infer causal order and select models.
result Strong performance in simulations and real-world assembly line data.
Proposes a spectral method for jointly smooth functions on multiple manifolds.
problem Registering measurements from different sensors and rejecting noise.
method Two steps: kernel subspace span and spectral method.
result Guaranteed orthogonal functions that are as jointly smooth as possible.
Robust method learns nonlinear structures robustly to noise.
problem Learning nonlinear structures in noisy data.
method Robust Non-Linear Matrix Factorization (RNLMF).
result RNLMF achieves noticeable improvements in denoising and clustering.
Nonlinear SGD achieves high-probability rates in non-convex optimization with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Optimization in non-convex problems with heavy-tailed noise.
method General nonlinear framework for SGD, including symmetrization techniques.
result Achieves O ~ ( t − 1 / 2 ) \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(t^{-1/2}) O ( t − 1/2 ) rate for heavy-tailed noise. Polynomial-time algorithm learns causal graphs without parametric assumptions.
problem Learning causal graphs from data without assuming linearity or parametric forms.
method Model-free polynomial-time algorithm with finite-sample guarantees.
result Algorithm achieves linear cost in dimension and samples compared to optimal.
SISR improves feature attribution in complex payoff schemes.
problem Distorted feature attributions due to non-additive payoff functions and high-dimensional feature spaces.
method Sparse Isotonic Shapley Regression (SISR) learns a monotonic transformation to restore additivity and enforces L0 sparsity.
result SISR achieves strong support recovery and stable attributions across various payoff schemes.
This work establishes safe reinforcement learning for LQR with nonlinear baselines.
problem Safe reinforcement learning in LQR with unknown dynamics and safety constraints.
method General framework for nonlinear baselines, focusing on 1D spaces.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds for constrained reinforcement learning.
Empirical mode modeling improves state-space analysis of noisy data.
problem Analyzing nonlinear systems with noisy data.
method Combining empirical mode decomposition with empirical dynamic modeling.
result Empirical mode modeling enhances state-space representations in noisy data.
Improved generative models learn structured data better.
problem Training score-based generative models for structured data.
method Nonlinear denoising score matching with neural control variates.
result Enhanced learning of multimodal and symmetric data.
PGPCA improves PCA for nonlinear data in neuroscience.
problem Nonlinear data distribution in neuroscience.
method Developed PGPCA for nonlinear manifolds, incorporating EM algorithm.
result PGPCA outperforms PPCA in modeling data around nonlinear manifolds.
Improved robust latent variable estimation for neural dynamics.
problem Inconsistent results due to noise and nonlinearity in existing models.
method Probabilistic approach to latent variable estimation in decomposed models.
result More accurate latent variable inference in nonlinear systems with diverse noise conditions.
New method improves nonlinear filtering accuracy with reduced computation.
problem Complex nonlinear filtering with small system noise.
method Asymptotic expansion with ordinary differential equations and Edgeworth-type correction.
result Significantly lower computational cost with improved accuracy.
New method identifies latent causal factors from observational data alone.
problem Identifying latent causal factors without interventions or graphical restrictions.
method Characterization of latent factors in nonlinear causal models with additive Gaussian noise and linear mixing, using a practical algorithm based on solving a quadratic program over observed data.
result Latent causal variables can be identified up to a layer-wise transformation, and further disentanglement is not possible.
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1…
New models improve machine learning accuracy and transparency in finance.
problem Black-box machine learning models lack interpretability in regulated industries.
method Introducing generalized groves of neural additive models with clear feature categories and interactions.
result Generalized groves of neural additive models achieve high accuracy with predominantly linear and sparse nonlinear components.
Develops efficient inference for noise heterogeneity in machine learning models.
problem Downstream procedures based on residuals can be biased in additive noise models.
method Semiparametrically efficient inference using a novel Hilbert-valued one-step estimator.
result Constructs tests and confidence intervals for residual independence and goodness of fit.
The paper develops a robust signal estimation method for noisy measurements from generative models.
problem Signal estimation from noisy non-linear measurements with adversarial corruptions.
method Generalized Lasso approach with sub-Gaussian measurements and adversarial noise consideration.
result The method requires $O\left(\frac{k}{ε^2}\log L
ight)$ samples for ε ε ε -error recovery, robust to adversarial noise. Given data sampled from a number of variables, one is often interested in the underlying causal relationships in the form of a directed acyclic graph. In the general case, without interventions on some of the variables it is only possible to identify the graph up to its Markov equivalence class. However, in some situat…
We solve continuous-time latent SDE identifiability using diffusion shifts.
problem Identifiability of latent SDEs in continuous-time time series.
method Environment-induced shifts in diffusion covariance for additive-noise latent SDEs.
result Two diagonal diffusion regimes with distinct variance ratios identify latent coordinates up to permutation and scaling.
WSINDy algorithm proves robust to noise in identifying differential equations.
problem Identifying differential equations from noisy data.
method Weak-form sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (WSINDy) algorithm.
result WSINDy is asymptotically consistent for a wide class of models, including Navier-Stokes and Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equations.