A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direct…
We address the problem of distinguishing cause from effect in bivariate setting. Based on recent developments in nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA), we train nonparametrically general nonlinear causal models that allow non-additive noise. Further, we build an ensemble framework, namely Causal Mosaic, which …
Constraint-based structure learning algorithms infer the causal structure of multivariate systems from observational data by determining an equivalent class of causal structures compatible with the conditional independencies in the data. Methods based on additive-noise (AN) models have been proposed to further discrimi…
We propose a method for inferring the existence of a latent common cause ('confounder') of two observed random variables. The method assumes that the two effects of the confounder are (possibly nonlinear) functions of the confounder plus independent, additive noise. We discuss under which conditions the model is identi…
New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.
problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.
We develop a framework for learning sparse nonparametric directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Our approach is based on a recent algebraic characterization of DAGs that led to a fully continuous program for score-based learning of DAG models parametrized by a linear structural equation model (SEM). We extend this a…
We consider the problem of learning stabilizable systems governed by nonlinear state equation ht+1=φ(ht,ut;θ)+wt. Here θ is the unknown system dynamics, ht is the state, ut is the input and wt is the additive noise vector. We study gradient based algorithms to learn the system dynamics θ from samp…
In nonlinear latent variable models or dynamic models, if we consider the latent variables as confounders (common causes), the noise dependencies imply further relations between the observed variables. Such models are then closely related to causal discovery in the presence of nonlinear confounders, which is a challeng…
New method identifies latent causal factors from observational data alone.
problem Identifying latent causal factors without interventions or graphical restrictions.
method Characterization of latent factors in nonlinear causal models with additive Gaussian noise and linear mixing, using a practical algorithm based on solving a quadratic program over observed data.
result Latent causal variables can be identified up to a layer-wise transformation, and further disentanglement is not possible.
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1…
Given data sampled from a number of variables, one is often interested in the underlying causal relationships in the form of a directed acyclic graph. In the general case, without interventions on some of the variables it is only possible to identify the graph up to its Markov equivalence class. However, in some situat…