A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Estimates crypto risk premia using hidden factors and finds significant integration with traditional markets.
A risk-averse agent hedges her exposure to a non-tradable risk factor using a correlated traded asset and accounts for the impact of her trades on both factors. The effect of the agent's trades on is referred to as cross-impact. By solving the agent's stochastic control problem, we obtain a closed-form expr…
Investment strategies in occupational pension plans are optimized for non-tradable income risk.
This paper is concerned with the study of insurance related derivatives on financial markets that are based on non-tradable underlyings, but are correlated with tradable assets. We calculate exponential utility-based indifference prices, and corresponding derivative hedges. We use the fact that they can be represented …
We consider the problem of portfolio optimization with a correlation constraint. The framework is the multiperiod stochastic financial market setting with one tradable stock, stochastic income and a non-tradable index. The correlation constraint is imposed on the portfolio and the non-tradable index at some benchmark t…
Marketron model extended to option markets, solving incomplete market challenges.
Correlation matrices of foreign exchange rate time series are investigated for 60 world currencies. Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) graphs for the gold, silver and platinum are presented. Inverse power like scaling is discussed for these graphs as well as for four distinct currency groups (major, liquid, less liquid and no…
The paper studies the robust maximization of utility of terminal wealth in the diffusion financial market model. The underlying model consists with risky tradable asset, whose price is described by diffusion process with misspecified trend and volatility coefficients, and non-tradable asset with a known parameter. The …
This paper considers the optimal portfolio selection problem in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with regime switching. The risk preferences are of exponential (CARA) type with an absolute coefficient of risk aversion which changes with the regime. The market model is incomplete and there are two risky asset…
In this paper, we investigate risk minimization problem of derivatives based on non-tradable underlyings by means of dynamic g-expectations which are slight different from conditional g-expectations. In this framework, inspired by [1] and [16], we introduce risk indifference price, marginal risk price and derivative he…
The study models mortgage prepayment risk using stochastic housing market activity.
Deep hedging strategies for Green PPAs in electricity markets reduce risk.
ChatGPT predicts stock market reactions from news headlines without financial training.
We investigate the effects of the social interactions of a finite set of agents on an equilibrium pricing mechanism. A derivative written on non-tradable underlyings is introduced to the market and priced in an equilibrium framework by agents who assess risk using convex dynamic risk measures expressed by Backward Stoc…
This paper deals with the super-replication of non path-dependent European claims under additional convex constraints on the number of shares held in the portfolio. The corresponding super-replication price of a given claim has been widely studied in the literature and its terminal value, which dominates the claim of i…
Gradient matching with Gaussian processes is a promising tool for learning parameters of ordinary differential equations (ODE's). The essence of gradient matching is to model the prior over state variables as a Gaussian process which implies that the joint distribution given the ODE's and GP kernels is also Gaussian di…
We generalize to the finite-state case the notion of the extreme effect variable that accumulates all the effect of a variant variable observed in changes of another variable . We conduct theoretical analysis and turn the problem of finding of an effect variable into a problem of a simultaneous decomposition…
Improved DSSMs for easier interpretable latent variables.
SiBBlInGS discovers interpretable building blocks across states in multi-way data.
New model preserves symmetry in multivariate time series, improving performance.
We introduce a novel mechanism to tighten the local polytope relaxation for MAP inference in Markov random fields with low state space variables. We consider a surjection of the variables to a set of hyper-variables and apply the local polytope relaxation over these hyper-variables. The state space of each individual h…
Exogenous state variables and rewards can slow down reinforcement learning by injecting uncontrolled variation into the reward signal. We formalize exogenous state variables and rewards and identify conditions under which an MDP with exogenous state can be decomposed into an exogenous Markov Reward Process involving on…
Describes state variables in sequential decision problems, linking them to Markovian and non-Markovian models.
In this paper, we propose multi-variable LSTM capable of accurate forecasting and variable importance interpretation for time series with exogenous variables. Current attention mechanism in recurrent neural networks mostly focuses on the temporal aspect of data and falls short of characterizing variable importance. To …
New model captures state-dependent variability in partially observed systems.
A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables. These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. Detecting hidden variables poses two problems: determining the relations to other variables in the model and determining the number of states of …
Latent variable models improve RL by facilitating efficient learning and exploration.
A new method reduces high-dimensional state space for dynamic choice models.
This paper describes Simpson's paradox, and explains its serious implications for randomised control trials. In particular, we show that for any number of variables we can simulate the result of a controlled trial which uniformly points to one conclusion (such as 'drug is effective') for every possible combination of t…
For recurrent neural networks trained on time series with target and exogenous variables, in addition to accurate prediction, it is also desired to provide interpretable insights into the data. In this paper, we explore the structure of LSTM recurrent neural networks to learn variable-wise hidden states, with the aim t…
We propose a K-sparse exhaustive search (ES-K) method and a K-sparse approximate exhaustive search method (AES-K) for selecting variables in linear regression. With these methods, K-sparse combinations of variables are tested exhaustively assuming that the optimal combination of explanatory variables is K-sparse. By co…
New invariants for RNA foldings and stuck links defined.
We construct a 2-variable link polynomial, called , for classical links by considering simultaneously the Kauffman state models for the Alexander and for the Jones polynomials. We conjecture that this polynomial is the product of two 1-variable polynomials, one of which is the Alexander polynomial. We refine …
We propose a Bayesian expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for reconstructing Markov-tree sparse signals via belief propagation. The measurements follow an underdetermined linear model where the regression-coefficient vector is the sum of an unknown approximately sparse signal and a zero-mean white Gaussian noise wi…
The paper tackles reinforcement learning with exogenous variables and rewards.
Optimizes wireless network resource management with state-augmented policies.
We extend the state models for Jones and Alexander polynomials of classical links to state models of 2-variable polynomials in the case of singular links. Moreover, we extend both of them to polynomials with d+1 variables for long singular knots with exactly d double points. These extensions can detect non-invertibilit…
MVRSM optimizes expensive functions with mixed variables, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
F. Jaeger presented the two-variable Kauffman polynomial of an unoriented link L as a weighted sum of HOMFLY-PT polynomials of oriented links associated with L. Murakami, Ohtsuki and Yamada (MOY) used planar graphs and a recursive evaluation of these graphs to construct a state model for the sl(n)-link invariant (a one…
SEEK algorithm selects minimal state in reinforcement learning for better policy learning.
In this article, we advocate the ensemble approach for variable selection. We point out that the stochastic mechanism used to generate the variable-selection ensemble (VSE) must be picked with care. We construct a VSE using a stochastic stepwise algorithm, and compare its performance with numerous state-of-the-art algo…
Investigates fund separations and stability for long-term optimal investments.
Aggregated variables can mask causal effects, turning unconfounded into confounded relations.
This paper benchmarks speech LVMs against deterministic models and adapts a video model to speech.
New method for efficient Bayesian inference in GPSSMs.
Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the variational approximation. The auxiliary variables leave the generative model unchanged b…
Paper introduces multitask neural networks for efficient stochastic control problems.
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.