arXiv research

The paper proposes a method to assess surrogate heterogeneity in non-randomized data.

This paper studies node embeddings of networks, revealing their geometric properties.

Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.

CARD detects treatment responders with machine learning and adjustment.

Proposes MGPLL for PL learning with non-random noise.

We present a general framework, the coupled compound Poisson factorization (CCPF), to capture the missing-data mechanism in extremely sparse data sets by coupling a hierarchical Poisson factorization with an arbitrary data-generating model. We derive a stochastic variational inference algorithm for the resulting model …

It is hypothesized that price charts can be empirically decomposed into two components as random and non random. The non random component, which can be treated as approximately regular behavior of the prices (trend) in an epoch, is a geometric line. Thus, the random component fluctuates around the non random component …

Proposes SSL method for non-randomly sampled data.

Enhanced ELM reduces randomness in neural network training.

The paper analyzes sparse PCA for incomplete data and proves support recovery conditions.

A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.

A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.

Paper develops new patterns for unique matrix completions.

For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model is too small to be detected using traditional time series analysis. However, we s…

For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model is too small to be detected using traditional time series analysis. However, we s…

Consider a random smooth Gaussian field $G(x):F\to\mathbb{R}$, where $F$ is a compact in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We derive a formula for average area of a surface generated by the equation $G(x)=0$ and give some applications. As an auxiliary result we obtain an integral expression for area of a surface induced by zeros of a \e…

Theoretical framework explains why few epochs are enough for LLM fine-tuning.

Financial markets are a typical example of complex systems where interactions between constituents lead to many remarkable features. Here, we show that a pairwise maximum entropy model (or auto-logistic model) is able to describe switches between ordered (strongly correlated) and disordered market states. In this frame…

New algorithm recovers model coefficients and supports from noisy data.

Study shows randomized strategies can't be Nash equilibria in markets with transient price impact.

We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted institution to start a cascade depends on an interplay of shock size and connectivity. Fu…

Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believe…

Study neural networks by mapping correlations, revealing essential statistics.

A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.

Study speculative trading using RL with exploratory framework.

Optimal reinsurance contracts for multiple dependent risks are derived without specific dependency assumptions.

Study improves MMD estimation for two distributions with mismeasured data.

A new method prices time-to-event cash flows using survival analysis.

This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Real economic …

The price impact for a single trade is estimated by the immediate response on an event time scale, i.e., the immediate change of midpoint prices before and after a trade. We work out the price impacts across a correlated financial market. We quantify the asymmetries of the distributions and of the market structures of …

We empirically analyze the price and liquidity responses to trade signs, traded volumes and signed traded volumes. Utilizing the singular value decomposition, we explore the interconnections of price responses and of liquidity responses across the whole market. The statistical characteristics of their singular vectors …

Given an initial (resp., terminal) probability measure $μ$ (resp., $ν$) on $\mathbb{R}^d$, we characterize those optimal stopping times $τ$ that maximize or minimize the functional $\mathbb{E} |B_0 - B_τ|^α$, $α> 0$, where $(B_t)_t$ is Brownian motion with initial law $B_0\sim μ$ and with final distribution --once stop…

The cross-correlation matrix of daily returns of stock market indices in a diverse set of 37 countries worldwide was analyzed. Comparison of the spectrum of this matrix with predictions of random matrix theory provides an empirical evidence of strong interactions between individual economies, as manifested by three lar…

DSVGD improves federated learning with fewer communication rounds.

Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.

We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this benchmark model is unable to reproduce the diffusion properties of real prices.…

The paper analyzes trade execution strategies for large traders in a stochastic market environment.

Accelerated optimization methods improve robustness and privacy in estimation.

Transfer learning improves causal model estimates in small samples.

Deep learning analyzes healthcare provider actions and patient outcomes.

To have a superior generalization, a deep learning neural network often involves a large size of training sample. With increase of hidden layers in order to increase learning ability, neural network has potential degradation in accuracy. Both could seriously limit applicability of deep learning in some domains particul…

Study on random matrices in deep neural networks with IID entries.

The study improves Monte Carlo simulations for long-term investments using advanced financial models.

Tests whether a treatment's effect is fully mediated by observed outcomes and identifies causal mechanisms.

Independent component analysis (ICA) is a method for recovering statistically independent signals from observations of unknown linear combinations of the sources. Some of the most accurate ICA decomposition methods require searching for the inverse transformation which minimizes different approximations of the Mutual I…

Unified framework for causal inference under sample selection.

In this article we will propose a completely new point of view for solving one of the most important paradoxes concerning game theory. The solution develop shifts the focus from the result to the strategy s ability to operate in a cognitive way by exploiting useful information about the system. In order to determine fr…

Generative AutoEncoders require a chosen probability distribution in latent space, usually multivariate Gaussian. The original Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) uses randomness in encoder - causing problematic distortion, and overlaps in latent space for distinct inputs. It turned out unnecessary: we can instead use determ…