arXiv research

Proposes MGPLL for PL learning with non-random noise.

Proposes SSL method for non-randomly sampled data.

The paper analyzes sparse PCA for incomplete data and proves support recovery conditions.

CARD detects treatment responders with machine learning and adjustment.

Enhanced ELM reduces randomness in neural network training.

For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model is too small to be detected using traditional time series analysis. However, we s…

The paper proposes a method to assess surrogate heterogeneity in non-randomized data.

This paper studies node embeddings of networks, revealing their geometric properties.

For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model is too small to be detected using traditional time series analysis. However, we s…

It is hypothesized that price charts can be empirically decomposed into two components as random and non random. The non random component, which can be treated as approximately regular behavior of the prices (trend) in an epoch, is a geometric line. Thus, the random component fluctuates around the non random component …

Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.

A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.

A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.

Theoretical framework explains why few epochs are enough for LLM fine-tuning.

Paper develops new patterns for unique matrix completions.

We present a general framework, the coupled compound Poisson factorization (CCPF), to capture the missing-data mechanism in extremely sparse data sets by coupling a hierarchical Poisson factorization with an arbitrary data-generating model. We derive a stochastic variational inference algorithm for the resulting model …

Study improves MMD estimation for two distributions with mismeasured data.

Independent component analysis (ICA) is a method for recovering statistically independent signals from observations of unknown linear combinations of the sources. Some of the most accurate ICA decomposition methods require searching for the inverse transformation which minimizes different approximations of the Mutual I…

Consider a random smooth Gaussian field $G(x):F\to\mathbb{R}$, where $F$ is a compact in $\mathbb{R}^d$. We derive a formula for average area of a surface generated by the equation $G(x)=0$ and give some applications. As an auxiliary result we obtain an integral expression for area of a surface induced by zeros of a \e…

Generative AutoEncoders require a chosen probability distribution in latent space, usually multivariate Gaussian. The original Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) uses randomness in encoder - causing problematic distortion, and overlaps in latent space for distinct inputs. It turned out unnecessary: we can instead use determ…

To have a superior generalization, a deep learning neural network often involves a large size of training sample. With increase of hidden layers in order to increase learning ability, neural network has potential degradation in accuracy. Both could seriously limit applicability of deep learning in some domains particul…

Many real datasets contain values missing not at random (MNAR). In this scenario, investigators often perform list-wise deletion, or delete samples with any missing values, before applying causal discovery algorithms. List-wise deletion is a sound and general strategy when paired with algorithms such as FCI and RFCI, b…

Unified framework for causal inference under sample selection.

Transfer learning improves causal model estimates in small samples.

Paper introduces a neural network training algorithm for noisy data that achieves optimal parameters and replicates real-world behaviors.

Stock markets are complex systems exhibiting collective phenomena and particular features such as synchronization, fluctuations distributed as power-laws, non-random structures and similarity to neural networks. Such specific properties suggest that markets operate at a very special point. Financial markets are believe…

The paper deals with distribution of singular values of product of random matrices arising in the analysis of deep neural networks. The matrices resemble the product analogs of the sample covariance matrices, however, an important difference is that the population covariance matrices, which are assumed to be non-random…

Bayesian model for cost-effectiveness analysis with subgroup discovery.

We consider a setup in which confidential i.i.d. samples $X_1,\dotsc,X_n$ from an unknown finite-support distribution $\boldsymbol{p}$ are passed through $n$ copies of a discrete privatization channel (a.k.a. mechanism) producing outputs $Y_1,\dotsc,Y_n$. The channel law guarantees a local differential privacy of $ε$. …

Generative framework improves causal estimation from observational data.

Improved DNN estimator with scalable subsampling for efficient inference.

Optimal reinsurance contracts for multiple dependent risks are derived without specific dependency assumptions.

A new method prices time-to-event cash flows using survival analysis.

This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Real economic …

Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.

Financial markets are a typical example of complex systems where interactions between constituents lead to many remarkable features. Here, we show that a pairwise maximum entropy model (or auto-logistic model) is able to describe switches between ordered (strongly correlated) and disordered market states. In this frame…

Proposes SSC for estimating counterfactual survival trajectories from observational data.

The paper tackles matrix completion in ultra-sparse sampling, improving imputation accuracy.

Tests whether a treatment's effect is fully mediated by observed outcomes and identifies causal mechanisms.

The price impact for a single trade is estimated by the immediate response on an event time scale, i.e., the immediate change of midpoint prices before and after a trade. We work out the price impacts across a correlated financial market. We quantify the asymmetries of the distributions and of the market structures of …

New algorithm recovers model coefficients and supports from noisy data.

We empirically analyze the price and liquidity responses to trade signs, traded volumes and signed traded volumes. Utilizing the singular value decomposition, we explore the interconnections of price responses and of liquidity responses across the whole market. The statistical characteristics of their singular vectors …

Given an initial (resp., terminal) probability measure $μ$ (resp., $ν$) on $\mathbb{R}^d$, we characterize those optimal stopping times $τ$ that maximize or minimize the functional $\mathbb{E} |B_0 - B_τ|^α$, $α> 0$, where $(B_t)_t$ is Brownian motion with initial law $B_0\sim μ$ and with final distribution --once stop…

Deep neural networks have been shown to suffer from a surprising weakness: their classification outputs can be changed by small, non-random perturbations of their inputs. This adversarial example phenomenon has been explained as originating from deep networks being "too linear" (Goodfellow et al., 2014). We show here t…

The cross-correlation matrix of daily returns of stock market indices in a diverse set of 37 countries worldwide was analyzed. Comparison of the spectrum of this matrix with predictions of random matrix theory provides an empirical evidence of strong interactions between individual economies, as manifested by three lar…

We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted institution to start a cascade depends on an interplay of shock size and connectivity. Fu…

A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.

As the success of deep learning reaches more grounds, one would like to also envision the potential limits of deep learning. This paper gives a first set of results proving that certain deep learning algorithms fail at learning certain efficiently learnable functions. The results put forward a notion of cross-predictab…