The paper improves prediction intervals for non-parametric regression using histograms.
problem Computing accurate prediction intervals for non-parametric regression models.
method Uses conditional histograms to estimate conditional distributions and compute shortest prediction intervals.
result The method provides prediction intervals with provable marginal coverage and asymptotic conditional coverage.
Non-parametric time series forecasting without assuming a specific distribution.
problem Time series forecasting with numerical stability issues in classical models.
method Generates predictions by sampling from the empirical distribution of time series data.
result The proposed method produces reasonable forecasts without numerical stability issues.
SurvMixClust clusters survival data and predicts individual survival curves.
problem Integrating clustering into survival analysis for precision medicine.
method SurvMixClust learns latent representations for clustering and predicts survival functions using a mixture of non-parametric experts.
result SurvMixClust creates balanced clusters with distinct survival curves, outperforming clustering baselines and competing with non-clustering models in predictive accuracy.
Paper proposes a new time series prediction method using weighted past data and optimization.
problem Predicting time series data with improved accuracy considering both deterministic and stochastic assumptions.
method The approach uses a weighted sum of past data, solving a constrained linear optimization problem to minimize an outer bound of prediction error.
result The method can outperform existing non-parametric methods in short-term forecasts.
Unified review of Conformal Prediction theory and applications.
problem Distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method for valid prediction sets.
method Minimal assumptions, straightforward predictions sets valid in finite sample cases.
result Unified review of Conformal Prediction theory and applications.
Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian non-parametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This paper provides a gentle introduction to non-parametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using an infinite mixture model …
Develops a calibration prediction interval for non-parametric regression and neural networks.
problem Lack of accurate conditional prediction in regression settings.
method Calibration Prediction Interval (cPI) using Deep Neural Networks (DNN) or kernel methods.
result Asymptotically valid coverage rate and high probability of coverage rate with large sample sizes.
FastMuyGPs speeds up GP predictions for large datasets.
problem High cost of Gaussian process predictions for large data.
method Combines cross-validation, batching, nearest neighbors sparsification, and precomputation.
result Superior accuracy and competitive runtime compared to other methods.
Having a regression model, we are interested in finding two-sided intervals that are guaranteed to contain at least a desired proportion of the conditional distribution of the response variable given a specific combination of predictors. We name such intervals predictive intervals. This work presents a new method to fi…
New deep learning model uses self-attention to consider entire dataset for predictions.
problem Traditional deep learning models focus on single input datapoints; this model considers the whole dataset.
method Introduces self-attention mechanism to reason about relationships between datapoints.
result Models solve cross-datapoint lookup and complex reasoning tasks.
In this paper, we propose a non-parametric conditional factor regression (NCFR)model for domains with high-dimensional input and response. NCFR enhances linear regression in two ways: a) introducing low-dimensional latent factors leading to dimensionality reduction and b) integrating an Indian Buffet Process as a prior…
A method for non-parametric conditional distribution estimation using CRPS-optimal binning.
problem Non-parametric conditional distribution estimation.
method Partitioning covariate-sorted observations into bins to minimize LOO-CRPS, selecting K by K-fold cross-validation of test CRPS.
result Produces narrower prediction intervals with near-nominal coverage compared to split-conformal competitors.
Study compares non-parametric models for predicting medical insurance reimbursement delays.
problem Estimating the time-lapse between medical insurance reimbursement.
method Comparative study of four non-parametric regression models (KNNs, SVMs, Decision Trees, Random Forests) using R-squared metric.
result Each model's performance varies with training data size, feature space, and hyperparameters.
The paper reviews methods for estimating individual treatment effects using non-parametric regression models.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in observational data.
method Non-parametric regression models to estimate individual treatment effects.
result A review and development of existing state-of-the-art frameworks for individual treatment effects estimation.
New measure assesses predictive dependence between continuous variables, capturing non-functional relationships.
problem Quantifying the joint dependence between continuous random variables.
method Introduces a novel, fully non-parametric measure bounded [0,1] that assesses predictive accuracy loss.
result The measure captures a wide range of relationships, including non-functional ones, and is interpretable.
Paper proposes a neural network for non-parametric Hawkes process kernel estimation.
problem Estimating non-parametric Hawkes process kernels efficiently and interpretably.
method Single hidden layer neural network for unbiased log-likelihood estimation of Hawkes processes.
result Proposed neural network achieves comparable or better performance than existing methods.
A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning models are used in decision analysis. This paper presents two new non-parametric …
New methods using vine copulas improve accuracy of feature dependence in predictive models.
problem Inaccurate feature dependence assumptions in Shapley values lead to incorrect explanations.
method Proposed two new approaches based on vine copulas to model feature dependence.
result Vine copula approaches give more accurate approximations to true Shapley values.
TabSurv adapts tabular neural networks for survival analysis.
problem Survival analysis on tabular data using deep learning methods.
method Adapts modern tabular architectures to survival analysis using Weibull distribution or non-parametric prediction. Optimizes SurvHL histogram loss function.
result TabSurv consistently outperforms classical and deep learning baselines on 10 real-world survival datasets.
We study online prediction of bounded stationary ergodic processes. To do so, we consider the setting of prediction of individual sequences and build a deterministic regression tree that performs asymptotically as well as the best L-Lipschitz constant predictors. Then, we show why the obtained regret bound entails the …
Accurate calibration of probabilistic predictive models learned is critical for many practical prediction and decision-making tasks. There are two main categories of methods for building calibrated classifiers. One approach is to develop methods for learning probabilistic models that are well-calibrated, ab initio. The…
Paper develops a method to predict cancer patient survival using molecular profiles.
problem Accurately predicting cancer patient survival with complex survival-molecular profile relationships.
method Kernel Cox partially linear regression with a novel regularized garrotized kernel machine (RegGKM) method.
result The proposed method outperforms other methods in predicting survival accuracy.
New algorithm improves Gaussian process hyperparameter tuning for large datasets.
problem Scalable hyperparameter tuning for Gaussian processes on large datasets.
method Estimates smoothness and length-scale parameters in Matern kernel using novel loss functions.
result Improved uncertainty quantification over traditional methods.
Gaussian processes with differential privacy protect both inputs and outputs.
problem Previous DP methods only protected model outputs, not inputs.
method Sparse GP with private variational approximation, adjusting covariance for DP noise.
result Accurate models can be produced under strong privacy protection with sufficient data.
Deep neural networks for structured prediction using kernel-induced losses.
problem Structured prediction tasks for images and texts.
method Designing a novel family of deep neural architectures that predict in a finite-dimensional subspace derived from the kernel-induced loss.
result Gradient descent algorithms can be used for structured prediction with deep neural networks.
A new growth model for dynamic networks using Markovian latent points.
problem Modeling temporal dynamic networks with latent points and distances.
method Markovian latent space dynamic with Euclidean Sphere sampling and connection probabilities based on geodesic distances.
result Theoretical guarantees for non-parametric estimation of the latitude and envelope functions.
A deep learning method for regression without model assumptions.
problem Regression prediction without model specification.
method Deep Neural Network (DNN) for point and interval prediction.
result The method outperforms other DNN-based alternatives in stability and accuracy.
WRSE predicts dynamic survival distributions in ICU patients.
problem Dynamic assessment of ICU patient mortality risk.
method Non-parametric weighted-resolution ensemble model combining binary classifiers.
result Competitive results with state-of-the-art models, reducing training time.
We introduce 'mixed LICORS', an algorithm for learning nonlinear, high-dimensional dynamics from spatio-temporal data, suitable for both prediction and simulation. Mixed LICORS extends the recent LICORS algorithm (Goerg and Shalizi, 2012) from hard clustering of predictive distributions to a non-parametric, EM-like sof…
This paper compares rank aggregation methods for partial label ranking.
problem Handling partial label ranking with ties.
method Scoring-based and non-parametric probabilistic-based rank aggregation methods.
result Scoring-based variants consistently outperform the state-of-the-art method.
Datasets with hundreds of variables and many missing values are commonplace. In this setting, it is both statistically and computationally challenging to detect true predictive relationships between variables and also to suppress false positives. This paper proposes an approach that combines probabilistic programming, …
When randomized ensembles such as bagging or random forests are used for binary classification, the prediction error of the ensemble tends to decrease and stabilize as the number of classifiers increases. However, the precise relationship between prediction error and ensemble size is unknown in practice. In the standar…
General predictive models do not provide a measure of confidence in predictions without Bayesian assumptions. A way to circumvent potential restrictions is to use conformal methods for constructing non-parametric confidence regions, that offer guarantees regarding validity. In this paper we provide a detailed descripti…
Bayesian graph learning improves graph representation accuracy.
problem Inaccurate graph construction from noisy data.
method Non-parametric Bayesian graph model for posterior inference of graph adjacency matrices.
result Model scales well to large graphs and improves node classification, link prediction, and recommendation tasks.
The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not yet been well-established for regression tasks. This paper considers the problem…
Proposes method for eliciting non-parametric joint priors using normalizing flows.
problem Learning complex non-parametric joint priors for model parameters.
method Expert elicitation combined with normalizing flows for generative modeling.
result Framework supports elicitation of both parametric and non-parametric priors.
We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly correlated data, as it is the case for interest rates. Furthermore, the model structure allows t…
Method learns dynamics from sparse, irregular feature data.
problem Learn system dynamics from sparse, irregularly sampled feature time series.
method Formulates as high-dimensional linear regression using signatures.
result Oracle bound on prediction error with explicit sampling dependencies.
IQ-BART models conditional quantiles using a non-parametric Bayesian approach.
problem Capturing multimodal predictive distributions in time series forecasting.
method Implicit Quantile BART (IQ-BART) augments data with quantile values for non-parametric quantile function estimation.
result IQ-BART provides flexible distribution-free regression with theoretical guarantees.
Study uses non-parametric method to analyze EU ETS price determinants.
problem Understanding price determinants of EU ETS to inform policy.
method Non-parametric measure (Information Imbalance) to study variables.
result Commodity variables are most informative in Phase 3, while financial variables become more important in Phase 4.
We propose a non-parametric link prediction algorithm for a sequence of graph snapshots over time. The model predicts links based on the features of its endpoints, as well as those of the local neighborhood around the endpoints. This allows for different types of neighborhoods in a graph, each with its own dynamics (e.…
Bayesian model captures mean and variance of response variables.
problem Complex, predictor-dependent relationships and heteroscedastic patterns in data.
method Sum-of-tessellations for mean, product-of-tessellations for variance.
result Model captures nuanced variance structures and provides reliable predictive uncertainty.
Adversarially robust machine learning has received much recent attention. However, prior attacks and defenses for non-parametric classifiers have been developed in an ad-hoc or classifier-specific basis. In this work, we take a holistic look at adversarial examples for non-parametric classifiers, including nearest neig…
We consider a class of misspecified dynamical models where the governing term is only approximately known. Under the assumption that observations of the system's evolution are accessible for various initial conditions, our goal is to infer a non-parametric correction to the misspecified driving term such as to faithful…
NPOD algorithm improves efficiency in estimating pharmacokinetic parameters.
problem Efficiently estimating joint distribution of model parameters in population pharmacokinetics.
method Uses gradient approach to suggest new support points, reducing evaluation time.
result Achieves similar solutions to NPAG but with significantly fewer cycles and runtime.
Event datasets are sequences of events of various types occurring irregularly over the time-line, and they are increasingly prevalent in numerous domains. Existing work for modeling events using conditional intensities rely on either using some underlying parametric form to capture historical dependencies, or on non-pa…
Understanding and interpreting how machine learning (ML) models make decisions have been a big challenge. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how an ML model makes individual predictions, they cannot provide users with an ability to inspect a model as a complete e…
This study examines when non-parametric methods are robust to adversarial examples.
problem Understanding when non-parametric methods are robust to adversarial examples.
method Examined general non-parametric methods and established conditions for r-consistency.
result Non-parametric methods like nearest neighbors and kernel classifiers are r-consistent when data is well-separated, while histograms are not.