An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components.
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48 results for “non-linear dependence”
Machine learning improves joint default assessment by capturing non-linear dependencies.
problem Capturing non-linear dependencies among covariates for accurate joint default assessment.
method Application of machine learning techniques to credit card dataset, comparing with logistic regression.
result Machine learning outperforms logistic regression in assessing portfolio riskiness.
Paper models non-linear dynamics from time series data.
problem Modeling non-linear dynamical systems from time series data.
method Introduces latent state modeling and a novel alternating minimization algorithm.
result LaNoLem achieves competitive performance in dynamics estimation and prediction.
Non-linear shrinkage isn't optimal for portfolio optimization, especially when asset dependence is non-stationary.
problem Optimizing portfolios with non-stationary asset dependence structures.
method Derived and compared non-linear shrinkage with an optimal target for covariance matrix estimation.
result Non-linear shrinkage can be significantly improved for portfolio optimization.
Explaining the data or explaining a model? Shapley values that uncover non-linear dependenciesstat.ML
New Shapley values reveal non-linear feature dependencies.
problem Understanding non-linear dependencies in machine learning models.
method Model-independent Shapley values using non-parametric measures of dependence.
result Model-independent Shapley values can uncover non-linear dependencies.
We introduce the Randomized Dependence Coefficient (RDC), a measure of non-linear dependence between random variables of arbitrary dimension based on the Hirschfeld-Gebelein-Rényi Maximum Correlation Coefficient. RDC is defined in terms of correlation of random non-linear copula projections; it is invariant with respec…
TailCoRq-fin.ST
TailCoR measures co-movement of financial crises events.
problem Measuring co-movement of financial crises events.
method Combines linear and non-linear dependencies using tail inter quantile range.
result TailCoR performs well in small samples and no optimisations are needed.
The paper generalizes equivariant neural networks on homogeneous spaces to the non-linear setting.
problem Equivariant neural networks on homogeneous spaces.
method Deriving generalized steerability constraints for non-linear equivariant layers.
result The universality of the derived construction for non-linear equivariant layers.
Improved algorithm for logistic bandits with better regret bounds.
problem Understanding the impact of non-linearity in logistic bandits.
method Introducing a new algorithm and providing refined analysis.
result Improved regret bounds scaling as in most favorable cases.
In this pre-print we explore the multi-fractal properties of 1 minute traded volume of the equities which compose the Dow Jones 30. We also evaluate the weights of linear and non-linear dependences in the multi-fractal structure of the observable. Our results show that the multi-fractal nature of traded volume comes es…
Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space and develop a method for learning prediction func…
We show how the tangent functor extends from ordinary smooth maps to "microformal morphisms" (also called "thick morphisms") of supermanifolds. Microformal morphisms generalize ordinary maps and correspond to formal canonical relations between the cotangent bundles specified by generating functions depending on positio…
DiffKnock improves feature selection in neural networks with complex dependencies and non-linear associations.
problem Selecting important features in neural networks with complex dependencies and non-linear associations.
method DiffKnock uses diffusion models to generate knockoffs and neural network statistics to measure feature importance.
result DiffKnock outperforms existing methods in detecting non-linear associations and preserving feature dependencies.
Papers learn from data to make decisions without interacting, improving on previous methods.
problem Achieving optimal decision-making from offline data with non-linear function approximation.
method Pessimistic Nonlinear Least-Square Value Iteration (PNLSVI) with three innovative components.
result Achieves minimax optimal instance-dependent regret for non-linear function approximation.
Improves sparse recovery with non-linear Fourier features.
problem Sparse recovery challenges with non-linear Fourier features.
method Characterizes sufficient data points for perfect recovery.
result Sufficient data points depend on kernel matrix.
New measures detect asymmetries, non-linearity in stock returns.
problem Detecting asymmetries and non-linearity in stock returns.
method Proposed non-linear, local, invariant dependence measures; nonparametric estimator proven.
result Measures show tail asymmetry, non-linearity, risk buildup during market distress.
seq2graph: Discovering Dynamic Dependencies from Multivariate Time Series with Multi-level Attentioncs.LG
Discovering temporal lagged and inter-dependencies in multivariate time series data is an important task. However, in many real-world applications, such as commercial cloud management, manufacturing predictive maintenance, and portfolios performance analysis, such dependencies can be non-linear and time-variant, which …
We develop algorithms to learn non-linear dynamical systems without mixing assumptions.
problem Learning non-linear dynamical systems from dependent data.
method We introduce an offline algorithm and a one-pass streaming method with SGD-RER.
result Our methods achieve optimal or near-optimal performance for learning non-linear systems.
Paper introduces non-linear discounting models for default compensation and climate valuation.
problem Valuation of non-replicable value and damage under default risk.
method Develops two models: one for risk-neutralising discounting and another for survival probability dependent discounting.
result Non-decaying discount factors (negative discount rates) are possible under certain scenarios.
Proposes a new dependency function for measuring non-linear relationships.
problem Need for a general-purpose measure of dependency between random variables.
method Revision of ideal properties and proposal of a new dependency function.
result Proposes a new dependency function that meets all desired properties.
We introduce two types of ordinal pattern dependence between time series. Positive (resp. negative) ordinal pattern dependence can be seen as a non-paramatric and in particular non-linear counterpart to positive (resp. negative) correlation. We show in an explorative study that both types of this dependence show up in …
New complex-valued maps found on complex geometries.
problem Finding new maps on complex geometries.
method Solving non-linear PDEs based on manifold geometry.
result Constructed new proper biharmonic and (2,1)-harmonic maps.
We consider the problem of inferring causal relationships between two or more passively observed variables. While the problem of such causal discovery has been extensively studied especially in the bivariate setting, the majority of current methods assume a linear causal relationship, and the few methods which consider…
Improved regret bound for multinomial logistic bandits with non-linearity.
problem Maximizing rewards in multinomial logistic bandits with non-linear feedback.
method Extended the definition of to multinomial setting and proposed an efficient algorithm.
result Minimax-optimal regret bound of , improving over existing guarantees.
Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged autocorrelation function, or disregarded the multi-scaling properties induced by potential…
PatternLocal improves XAI for non-linear models by suppressing suppressor variables.
problem Suppressor variables cause false-positive feature attributions in non-linear models.
method PatternLocal uses locally linear surrogate models and transforms weights into a generative representation.
result PatternLocal reduces false-positive attributions and provides more reliable explanations.
DeepKriging uses DNNs to predict spatial data with improved accuracy and scalability.
problem Predicting spatial processes with non-linear and non-Gaussian data.
method Adds an embedding layer of spatial coordinates with basis functions to DNNs.
result DeepKriging provides non-linear predictions with smaller approximation errors and is scalable for large datasets.
Agents learn state ambiguity from non-linear sensor data using Gaussian approximations.
problem Learning state representation from non-linear sensor data.
method Second-order Taylor approximation of Gaussian distribution for non-linear measurement functions.
result Induces a preference for states based on inferability from observations.
A method for constructing explicit Calabi-Yau metrics in six dimensions in terms of an initial hyperkahler structure is presented. The equations to solve are non linear in general, but become linear when the objects describing the metric depend on only one complex coordinate of the hyperkahler 4-dimensional space and i…
BAM model learns graph structure from data with robustness across linear and non-linear dependencies.
problem Detecting dependencies in datasets for graph structure learning.
method Proposes BAM, a neural network model using structural equation models and Chebyshev polynomials for training, with bilinear attention mechanism.
result Demonstrates robust generalizability and superior performance in graph estimation.
Financial markets are complex adaptive systems, and are commonly studied as complex networks. Most of such studies fall short in two respects: they do not account for non-linearity of the studied relationships, and they create one network for the whole studied time series, providing an average picture of a very long, e…
Theoretical analysis of deep neural networks for time series data.
problem Theoretical development for deep neural networks on temporally dependent observations is lacking.
method Established non-asymptotic bounds for prediction error of deep neural networks under mixing-type assumptions.
result Deep neural networks can model non-linear time series data with additional logarithmic factors due to dependence.
Study confirms complex crypto market dynamics via non-linear potentials.
problem Linear models fail to capture complex financial market dynamics.
method Analyzed high-frequency crypto currency data to confirm non-linear drift and potential functions.
result Markets exhibit either single-well or double-well potentials, indicating varying levels of uncertainty or stress.
A weak law of large numbers for a limit order book model with fully state dependent order dynamicsq-fin.MF
This paper studies a limit order book (LOB) model, in which the order dynamics depend on both, the current best available prices and the current volume density functions. For the joint dynamics of the best bid price, the best ask price, and the standing volume densities on both sides of the LOB we derive a weak law of …
This work extends identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models, focusing on Switching Dynamical Systems.
problem Identifying latent variables in sequential data models.
method Proved identifiability of Markov Switching Models and established conditions for Switching Dynamical Systems.
result Identifiability of latent variables and non-linear mappings in Switching Dynamical Systems up to affine transformations.
Extended mean-field games with multi-dimensional singular controls and non-linear jump impactmath.OC
New framework for analyzing games with multi-dimensional singular controls and non-linear jumps.
problem Analyzing games with multi-dimensional singular controls and non-linear jump impacts.
method Probabilistic framework with novel class of MFGs (MFGs of parametrisations).
result Existence of equilibria and equivalence with MFGs of singular controls.
Unified Bayesian framework predicts cryptocurrency market dynamics and volatility.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency market trends and volatility.
method Bayesian framework based on potential field theory and Gaussian Process.
result Attractors and repellers from the potential field are reliable market indicators.
Uniform bounds for Green's function on Kähler manifolds derived from complex Monge-Ampère equations.
problem Uniform bounds for Green's function on Kähler manifolds.
method Auxiliary Monge-Ampère equations, non-linear proof.
result Uniform lower bounds for the Green's function on Kähler manifolds.
Rhino learns causal relationships from time series data with history-dependent noise.
problem Discovering causal relationships from time series data with non-linear relations, instantaneous effects, and history-dependent noise.
method Combines vector auto-regression, deep learning, and variational inference.
result Demonstrates better causal relationship discovery performance compared to baselines.
Enhances RJMCMC efficiency with non-linear transport-based proposals.
problem Designing efficient RJMCMC proposals for complex models.
method Applies non-linear transport-based approach to construct efficient transdimensional jumps.
result Acceptance probability depends only on model probabilities when exact transports are used.
Numerical Method for Highly Non-linear Mean-reverting Asset Price Model with CEV-type Processq-fin.RM
New numerical method for non-linear asset price model with CEV volatility.
problem Describing stochastic volatility in asset price dynamics.
method Proposes a mean-reverting theta-rho model with CEV volatility, constructs a truncated EM method.
result Truncated EM solutions can evaluate path-dependent financial products.
We present a multi-task learning formulation for Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs), through non-linear mixtures of latent processes. The latent space is composed of private processes that capture within-task information and shared processes that capture across-task dependencies. We propose two different methods for segmen…
In the last years efforts in econophysics have been shifted to study how network theory can facilitate understanding of complex financial markets. Main part of these efforts is the study of correlation-based hierarchical networks. This is somewhat surprising as the underlying assumptions of research looking at financia…
Two Fisher information matrix estimators are analyzed for neural networks, focusing on their variances and trade-offs.
problem Estimating the Fisher information matrix in neural networks due to its high computational cost.
method Examined two popular diagonal Fisher information matrix estimators and their variances in neural networks for regression and classification.
result The variances of the estimators depend on the non-linearity with respect to different parameter groups and should not be neglected.
We consider that the price of a firm follows a non linear stochastic delay differential equation. We also assume that any claim value whose value depends on firm value and time follows a non linear stochastic delay differential equation. Using self-financed strategy and replication we are able to derive a Random Partia…
Affine models with path-dependence under parameter uncertainty and their application in financeq-fin.MF
Study path-dependent affine models under uncertain parameters for financial applications.
problem Valuation of path-dependent financial derivatives under parameter uncertainty.
method Developed path-dependent setting for value function, established dynamic programming principle, approximated functional derivatives with neural networks.
result Efficient numerical methods for valuation of complex financial derivatives under parameter uncertainty.
We study scale invariant but not necessarily conformal invariant deformations of non-relativistic conformal field theories from the dual gravity viewpoint. We present the corresponding metric that solves the Einstein equation coupled with a massive vector field. We find that, within the class of metric we study, when w…
Exploring and measuring non-linear correlations: Copulas, Lightspeed Transportation and Clusteringstat.ML
We propose a methodology to explore and measure the pairwise correlations that exist between variables in a dataset. The methodology leverages copulas for encoding dependence between two variables, state-of-the-art optimal transport for providing a relevant geometry to the copulas, and clustering for summarizing the ma…