A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Strong stability of ergodic iterations proven without ergodic driving sequence.
Non-ergodic measures found in horocycle flow on Abelian differentials.
Analyzes non-Markovian environments in stochastic approximation.
We study how resetting affects geometric Brownian motion, showing it becomes stationary but remains non-ergodic.
The paper explores properties of functions on Teichmüller space, proving theorems about limits and non-ergodicity.
Non-ergodic geodesic flow on Cantor tree surfaces found.
New rule universally consistent for online learning with non-ergodic data.
In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loos…
In this paper, we revisit the convergence of the Heavy-ball method, and present improved convergence complexity results in the convex setting. We provide the first non-ergodic O(1/k) rate result of the Heavy-ball algorithm with constant step size for coercive objective functions. For objective functions satisfying a re…
We show that there exists an interval exchange and a point so that the orbit of the point equidistributes for a measure that is not ergodic.
The proximal inertial gradient descent is efficient for the composite minimization and applicable for broad of machine learning problems. In this paper, we revisit the computational complexity of this algorithm and present other novel results, especially on the convergence rates of the objective function values. The no…
We discuss a variant of Thompson sampling for nonparametric reinforcement learning in a countable classes of general stochastic environments. These environments can be non-Markov, non-ergodic, and partially observable. We show that Thompson sampling learns the environment class in the sense that (1) asymptotically its …
This essay discusses the advantages of a probabilistic agent-based approach to questions in theoretical economics, from the nature of economic agents, to the nature of the equilibria supported by their interactions. One idea we propose is that "agents" are meta-individual, hierarchically structured objects, that includ…
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…
This paper introduces a novel deep learning framework for image animation. Given an input image with a target object and a driving video sequence depicting a moving object, our framework generates a video in which the target object is animated according to the driving sequence. This is achieved through a deep architect…
This literature review focuses on three important aspects of an autonomous car system: tracking (assessing the identity of the actors such as cars, pedestrians or obstacles in a sequence of observations), prediction (predicting the future motion of surrounding vehicles in order to navigate through various traffic scena…
Given a sequential learning algorithm and a target model, sequential machine teaching aims to find the shortest training sequence to drive the learning algorithm to the target model. We present the first principled way to find such shortest training sequences. Our key insight is to formulate sequential machine teaching…
Making predictions of future frames is a critical challenge in autonomous driving research. Most of the existing methods for video prediction attempt to generate future frames in simple and fixed scenes. In this paper, we propose a novel and effective optical flow conditioned method for the task of video prediction wit…
We study a phenomenological model for the continuous double auction, equivalent to two independent queues. The continuous double auction defines a continuous-time random walk for trade prices. The conditions for ergodicity of the auction are derived and, as a consequence, three possible regimes in the behavior …
Future autonomous systems need reliable world models and complex action sequences.
Understanding and modeling human driver behavior is crucial for advanced vehicle development. However, unique driving styles, inconsistent behavior, and complex decision processes render it a challenging task, and existing approaches often lack variability or robustness. To approach this problem, we propose Probabilist…
Sandpile Economics explains how economies can be prone to large crises from small shocks.
As autonomous vehicles (AVs) need to interact with other road users, it is of importance to comprehensively understand the dynamic traffic environment, especially the future possible trajectories of surrounding vehicles. This paper presents an algorithm for long-horizon trajectory prediction of surrounding vehicles usi…
We investigate the multi-step prediction of the drivable space, represented by Occupancy Grid Maps (OGMs), for autonomous vehicles. Our motivation is that accurate multi-step prediction of the drivable space can efficiently improve path planning and navigation resulting in safe, comfortable and optimum paths in autonom…
Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear utility functions, which encode asymmetric risk preferences; or by assuming the p…
Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer scientists [17]. This paper gives an idea about the trend analysis of stock mar…
In the paper, we construct conservative Markov processes corresponding to the martingale solutions to the stochastic heat equation on or with values in a general Riemannian maifold, which is only assumed to be complete and stochastic complete. This work is an extension of the previous paper …
Detecting the intention of drivers is an essential task in self-driving, necessary to anticipate sudden events like lane changes and stops. Turn signals and emergency flashers communicate such intentions, providing seconds of potentially critical reaction time. In this paper, we propose to detect these signals in video…
An active area of research is to increase the safety of self-driving vehicles. Although safety cannot be guarenteed completely, the capability of a vehicle to predict the future trajectories of its surrounding vehicles could help ensure this notion of safety to a greater deal. We cast the trajectory forecast problem in…
The common pipeline in autonomous driving systems is highly modular and includes a perception component which extracts lists of surrounding objects and passes these lists to a high-level decision component. In this case, leveraging the benefits of deep reinforcement learning for high-level decision making requires spec…
The study examines dynamics on SU(2)-representation varieties for surfaces and non-orientable surfaces.
Self-driving technology is advancing rapidly --- albeit with significant challenges and limitations. This progress is largely due to recent developments in deep learning algorithms. To date, however, there has been no systematic comparison of how different deep learning architectures perform at such tasks, or an attemp…
In a mixed-traffic scenario where both autonomous vehicles and human-driving vehicles exist, a timely prediction of driving intentions of nearby human-driving vehicles is essential for the safe and efficient driving of an autonomous vehicle. In this paper, a driving intention prediction method based on Hidden Markov Mo…
A novel framework interprets driving patterns using Action phases clustering.
Deep RL mimics human driving for collision avoidance in self-driving cars.
Semantically understanding complex drivers' encountering behavior, wherein two or multiple vehicles are spatially close to each other, does potentially benefit autonomous car's decision-making design. This paper presents a framework of analyzing various encountering behaviors through decomposing driving encounter data …
Bayesian control prepares GHZ states in Rydberg atoms.
As automobiles become intelligent, automobile theft methods are evolving intelligently. Therefore automobile theft detection has become a major research challenge. Data-mining, biometrics, and additional authentication methods have been proposed to address automobile theft, in previous studies. Among these methods, dat…
New method reduces state redundancy in HSMM for driving patterns.
This paper presents a novel approach for automatic rule learning applicable to an autonomous driving system using real driving data.
Stochastic gradient methods are the workhorse (algorithms) of large-scale optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing, and other computational sciences and engineering. This paper studies Markov chain gradient descent, a variant of stochastic gradient descent where the random samples are taken on the t…
The paper explores new risk models for autonomous driving.
Promoter is a short region of DNA which is responsible for initiating transcription of specific genes. Development of computational tools for automatic identification of promoters is in high demand. According to the difference of functions, promoters can be of different types. Promoters may have both intra and inter cl…
We solve the dynamics of the on-line minority game, with general types of decision noise, using generating functional techniques a la De Dominicis and the temporal regularization procedure of Bedeaux et al. The result is a macroscopic dynamical theory in the form of closed equations for correlation- and response functi…
We study the optimal investment problem for a continuous time incomplete market model such that the risk-free rate, the appreciation rates and the volatility of the stocks are all random; they are assumed to be independent from the driving Brownian motion, and they are supposed to be currently observable. It is shown t…
Study improves self-driving safety in dynamic environments.
ApolloRL offers a platform for RL research in autonomous driving.
Paper proposes personalized climate control for driver comfort.