A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new copula, the checkerboard copula, maximizes entropy and preserves dependence.
We propose a robust adversarial prediction framework for general multiclass classification. Our method seeks predictive distributions that robustly optimize non-convex and non-continuous multiclass loss metrics against the worst-case conditional label distributions (the adversarial distributions) that (approximately) m…
The study examines non-continuous Riemannian metrics on manifolds and their infinitesimal properties.
Researchers created a continuous Markov martingale that mimics Brownian motion but lacks the strong Markov property.
A new clustering model for mixed datasets combines continuous and non-continuous data.
Recent advances in derivative-free optimization allow efficient approximation of the global-optimal solutions of sophisticated functions, such as functions with many local optima, non-differentiable and non-continuous functions. This article describes the ZOOpt (Zeroth Order Optimization) toolbox that provides efficien…
We study the problem of attacking a machine learning model in the hard-label black-box setting, where no model information is revealed except that the attacker can make queries to probe the corresponding hard-label decisions. This is a very challenging problem since the direct extension of state-of-the-art white-box at…
Geometrically, twist numbers on punctured tori are dense and non-continuous.
We consider a portfolio with call option and the corresponding underlying asset under the standard assumption that stock-market price represents a random variable with lognormal distribution. Minimizing the variance (hedging risk) of the portfolio on the date of maturity of the call option we find a fraction of the ass…
Modern machine learning uses more and more advanced optimization techniques to find optimal hyper parameters. Whenever the objective function is non-convex, non continuous and with potentially multiple local minima, standard gradient descent optimization methods fail. A last resource and very different method is to ass…
Recent research has used margin theory to analyze the generalization performance for deep neural networks (DNNs). The existed results are almost based on the spectrally-normalized minimum margin. However, optimizing the minimum margin ignores a mass of information about the entire margin distribution, which is crucial …
The problem of determining the joint probability distributions for correlated random variables with pre-specified marginals is considered. When the joint distribution satisfying all the required conditions is not unique, the "most unbiased" choice corresponds to the distribution of maximum entropy. The calculation of t…
Support vector regression (SVR) is one of the most popular machine learning algorithms aiming to generate the optimal regression curve through maximizing the minimal margin of selected training samples, i.e., support vectors. Recent researchers reveal that maximizing the margin distribution of whole training dataset ra…
Generative models enhance BO for large batch optimization.
Variational autoencoder (VAE) is a deep generative model for unsupervised learning, allowing to encode observations into the meaningful latent space. VAE is prone to catastrophic forgetting when tasks arrive sequentially, and only the data for the current one is available. We address this problem of continual learning …
Latent class model (LCM), which is a finite mixture of different categorical distributions, is one of the most widely used models in statistics and machine learning fields. Because of its non-continuous nature and the flexibility in shape, researchers in practice areas such as marketing and social sciences also frequen…
A framework estimates categorical distributions under constraints, ensuring generality and uniqueness.
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
In the absence of prior knowledge, ordinal embedding methods obtain new representation for items in a low-dimensional Euclidean space via a set of quadruple-wise comparisons. These ordinal comparisons often come from human annotators, and sufficient comparisons induce the success of classical approaches. However, colle…
We obtain a tight distribution-specific characterization of the sample complexity of large-margin classification with L2 regularization: We introduce the margin-adapted dimension, which is a simple function of the second order statistics of the data distribution, and show distribution-specific upper and lower bounds on…
In this paper, we reformulate the forest representation learning approach as an additive model which boosts the augmented feature instead of the prediction. We substantially improve the upper bound of generalization gap from to , while - the margin r…
Deep neural network (DNN) regression models are widely used in applications requiring state-of-the-art predictive accuracy. However, until recently there has been little work on accurate uncertainty quantification for predictions from such models. We add to this literature by outlining an approach to constructing predi…
Study finds a method to discover causal relationships that are invariant to marginal distributions.
We obtain a tight distribution-specific characterization of the sample complexity of large-margin classification with L_2 regularization: We introduce the γ-adapted-dimension, which is a simple function of the spectrum of a distribution's covariance matrix, and show distribution-specific upper and lower bounds on the s…
Paper reinterprets marginal productivity theory using vectorial products, challenging traditional ethical interpretations.
New margin-based learning guarantees improve generalization bounds.
MMM model clusters mixed-type longitudinal data efficiently.
Gradient-based methods can be biased by distributional asymmetries in bivariate categorical data.
Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.
In this work, we study a new approach to optimizing the margin distribution realized by binary classifiers. The classical approach to this problem is simply maximization of the expected margin, while more recent proposals consider simultaneous variance control and proxy objectives based on robust location estimates, in…
New insights into deep learning: reducing training data significantly improves performance.
New findings on PAC learning and marginal distribution estimation.
Novel proof shows continuity of optimal transport feasible set mapping.
Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
Boosting and other ensemble methods combine a large number of weak classifiers through weighted voting to produce stronger predictive models. To explain the successful performance of boosting algorithms, Schapire et al. (1998) showed that AdaBoost is especially effective at increasing the margins of the training data. …
As shown in recent research, deep neural networks can perfectly fit randomly labeled data, but with very poor accuracy on held out data. This phenomenon indicates that loss functions such as cross-entropy are not a reliable indicator of generalization. This leads to the crucial question of how generalization gap should…
AIS uses a suboptimal extended target distribution, which this paper improves using SGM.
New method controls error in low-dimensional marginals of spatial models.
Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework, the dimension of the target distribution grows with each time step, thus it is nec…
We study the problem of separating a mixture of distributions, all of which come from interventions on a known causal bayesian network. Given oracle access to marginals of all distributions resulting from interventions on the network, and estimates of marginals from the mixture distribution, we want to recover the mixi…
The paper examines risk aggregation under mixtures of marginals, finding that more homogeneous distributions lead to larger uncertainty.
TRESNET estimates exposure shifts with neural networks, improving causal inference.
Proposes MFSWB for marginal fairness in SWB, improving efficiency and performance.
The study establishes SQ lower bounds for learning halfspaces and ReLUs under Gaussian marginals.
Efficient algorithm for Bayesian networks reduces marginal probability distribution computation.
Maximum entropy distributions with discrete support in dimensions arise in machine learning, statistics, information theory, and theoretical computer science. While structural and computational properties of max-entropy distributions have been extensively studied, basic questions such as: Do max-entropy distributio…
We extend probabilistic programming to handle conditioning on marginal distributions.
COMET Flows model multivariate extremes with heavy tails and asymmetric dependence.