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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,181 papers · 148 categories

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97195292389 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for non-Markovian features

This paper improves market making strategies by incorporating non-Markovian features in order book models.

problem Failure of order book models to accurately represent real market behavior.
method Identification of statistical properties, design of market making strategies, and comparison of performances.
result Incorporating non-Markovian features in order book models significantly improves market making strategies.

Paper tackles robust offline RL for non-Markovian processes, improving efficiency and applicability.

problem Learning robust policies for non-Markovian decision processes with limited offline data.
method Proposes a novel algorithm with dataset distillation and LCB design for robust values, derived new dual forms, and introduces concentrability coefficients.
result Proves polynomial sample efficiency for finding ε-optimal robust policies.

Path signatures improve hedging of exotic derivatives in non-Markovian models.

problem Hedging exotic derivatives under non-Markovian stochastic volatility models.
method Investigates path signatures in deep and shallow learning contexts, comparing neural networks and regression approaches.
result Path signatures outperform LSTM in most cases and yield more accurate results in hedging.

HONEM learns embeddings for higher-order networks, improving performance in various tasks.

problem Existing methods fail to capture non-Markovian higher-order dependencies in networks.
method HONEM is a higher-order network embedding method designed for HON, capturing non-Markovian dependencies.
result HONEM outperforms other methods in node classification, network reconstruction, link prediction, and visualization.

DeepSynth synthesizes automata to guide deep RL agents through sparse, non-Markovian rewards.

problem Training deep RL agents with sparse, non-Markovian rewards and unknown high-level objectives.
method Employing a novel algorithm for synthesizing compact automata to uncover sequential structure from trace data.
result Reduces the number of iterations required for policy synthesis by two orders of magnitude and improves scalability.

New algorithm prices Bermudan options using Wiener chaos expansion for non-Markovian processes.

problem Pricing Bermudan options with non-Markovian payoff processes.
method Modified Longstaff Schwartz algorithm with Wiener chaos expansion for non-Markovian settings.
result Embarrassingly parallel algorithm for efficient computation.

A new method predicts non-Markovian closure terms for complex systems.

problem Predicting the effect of unresolved variables on resolved dynamics in high-dimensional systems.
method Mamba-Assisted Closure (MAC) framework: sequence model trained to predict closure from resolved trajectory, coupled with reduced-order equations.
result Substantially outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy and long-time stability.

Non-Markovian point process shows power-law scaling, similar to nonlinear Markovian process.

problem Understanding the scaling behavior of non-Markovian point processes.
method Analyzed a confined fractional Brownian motion-driven point process and compared it to a nonlinear Markovian process.
result A nonlinear Markovian process can reproduce the power-law scaling behavior of a non-Markovian point process.

Paper introduces PRMs to learn non-Markovian stochastic rewards for reinforcement learning.

problem Lack of structured representation for non-Markovian stochastic rewards in reinforcement learning.
method Introduces probabilistic reward machines (PRMs) and presents an algorithm to learn them from decision processes.
result Algorithm proves correct and convergent for learning PRMs from decision processes.

Paper solves non-Markovian optimal stopping problems using discrete approximations.

problem Non-Markovian optimal stopping problems in continuous-time processes.
method Discrete-type approximation scheme based on variational inequalities.
result Constructs ε-optimal stopping times and optimal values in full generality.

ARL bridges non-Markovian decision processes with reinforcement learning, improving foresight and stability.

problem Inaccurate foresight in non-Markovian environments due to state-based methods' limitations.
method Lifted state space into a signature-augmented manifold, using a self-consistent field approach to anticipate future path-law.
result ARL achieves deterministic evaluation of expected returns with reduced computational complexity and variance.

The paper values variable annuities using complex stochastic models and deep learning.

problem Valuation of variable annuities with early surrender options under non-Markovian models.
method Developed a deep signature Least Squares Monte Carlo approach to handle path-dependent continuation values.
result Fair fees increase with Hurst parameters of stock volatility and mortality force.

Data-driven model reduction captures non-Markovian dynamics using Koopman and Mori-Zwanzig formalisms.

problem Modeling complex, non-Markovian dynamics efficiently and understanding their underlying mechanisms.
method Formulates data-driven model reduction within Koopman and Mori-Zwanzig formalisms, deriving NARMAX models from dynamical systems.
result Shows how data-driven methods can represent non-Markovian dynamics using Koopman and Mori-Zwanzig formalisms.

Unified analytical tool for non-Markovian jump processes.

problem Analyzing history-dependent jump processes with non-Markovian behavior.
method Developed a standard form of master equations using Laplace-space embedding and asymptotic solution.
result Unified analytical toolset for general non-Markovian processes, leading to the GLE approximation.

Investigates optimal consumption and investment strategies in non-Markovian markets with unbounded parameters.

problem Optimal consumption and investment strategies in non-Markovian markets with unbounded parameters.
method Martingale optimal principle and quadratic BSDEs with exponential moment.
result Establishes optimal strategies for consumption and investment.

New algorithm for non-Markovian optimal stopping problems using Brownian motion.

problem Optimal stopping time problems for non-Markovian state processes.
method Longstaff-Schwartz-type algorithm based on statistical learning theory.
result Error estimates for approximation architecture spaces with finite Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension.

The paper develops a deep signature approach for option pricing under non-Markovian stochastic volatility models.

problem Pricing options under non-Markovian stochastic volatility models is challenging due to the dependence on historical paths.
method Reformulate the asset dynamics as a rough stochastic differential equation and represent rough paths via signatures. Apply standard analytical tools to solve the transformed equation.
result The deep signature approach provides a theoretically grounded and computationally efficient framework for option pricing.

Introduces alternators for modeling sequences, outperforming baselines.

problem Modeling complex sequential data with stability and efficiency.
method Two neural networks (OTN and FTN) alternate between outputting samples in observation and feature spaces, learned via cross-entropy criterion.
result Alternators outperform strong baselines in various domains (Lorenz equations, Neuroscience, Climate Science).

Study optimal portfolios in a non-Markovian regime-switching model with random time horizon.

problem Optimal portfolio selection in a market with non-Markovian regime-switching and random time horizon.
method Formulated as a constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, derived closed-form expressions for optimal portfolios and efficient frontier.
result Closed-form expressions for optimal portfolios and efficient frontier derived under non-Markovian regime-switching and random time horizon.

Study develops numerical schemes for non-Markovian volatility models with memory.

problem Existence and uniqueness of strong solutions for non-Markovian SDEs.
method Functional quantization scheme based on Lamperti transformation.
result Theoretical foundation for numerical schemes applied to specific models.

Study analyzes non-Markovian effects in financial markets over multiple years.

problem Understanding non-Markovian dynamics and trader interactions in financial markets.
method Empirical analysis of self-response functions and trade sign correlators for different stocks over multiple years.
result Significant variations in traders' interactions over time, indicating changes in market mechanisms.

Paper tackles non-Markovian control problems with new learning methods.

problem Non-Markovian stochastic control problems with unknown parameters.
method Off-model training and importance sampling for deep neural network approximation.
result Quantitative error bounds for adaptive learning under model uncertainty.

This paper studies a class of non-Markovian singular stochastic control problems, for which we provide a novel probabilistic representation. The solution of such control problem is proved to identify with the solution of a ZZ-constrained BSDE, with dynamics associated to a non singular underlying forward process. Du…

2017-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper introduces MVS to detect non-Markovian observations in reinforcement learning.

problem Real-world sensors violate Markov property, leading to suboptimal reinforcement learning performance.
method Uses prediction-based Markov Violation Score (MVS) combining random forest and ridge regression.
result MVS detects non-Markovian structure in observation trajectories, quantifying its impact.

The paper develops methods to price options under rough volatility models using BSPDEs.

problem Pricing options in models with non-Markovian dynamics.
method Backward stochastic partial differential equations (BSPDEs) and deep learning for numerical approximations.
result Existence and uniqueness of weak solutions for general nonlinear BSPDEs.

This work analyzes QQ-learning with adaptive stepsizes for finite-time convergence.

problem Finite-time convergence analysis for average-reward QQ-learning with adaptive stepsizes.
method Adaptive stepsizes as local clocks, time-inhomogeneous Markovian reformulation, almost-sure time-varying bounds, conditioning arguments, and Markov chain concentration inequalities.
result Convergence rates of ildeO(1/k) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/k) for mean-square and pointwise mean-square convergence.

Partially observable environments present an important open challenge in the domain of sequential control learning with delayed rewards. Despite numerous attempts during the two last decades, the majority of reinforcement learning algorithms and associated approximate models, applied to this context, still assume Marko…

2017-05-31abs ↗pdf ↗

HS-FNO models non-Markovian PDEs by learning history and future states.

problem Non-Markovian dynamics where future states depend on past history.
method History-Space Fourier Neural Operator (HS-FNO) for delay and memory-driven PDEs.
result HS-FNO achieves lowest aggregate errors across various PDE families.

New model controls memory in seq2seq tasks, revealing learning regimes.

problem Understanding memory in seq2seq tasks using neural networks.
method Introducing a stochastic switching-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (SSOU) model to control memory and a measure of non-Markovianity.
result Two learning regimes emerge from the interplay of time scales in the SSOU process.

Efficient RL in PRMs with improved regret bound.

problem Reinforcement learning in probabilistic reward machines with non-Markovian rewards.
method Design of an algorithm with a new regret bound of O~(HOAT+H2O2A3/2+HT)\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{HOAT} + H^2O^2A^{3/2} + H\sqrt{T}).
result Improved regret bound over existing methods, matching lower bound up to a logarithmic factor.

Describes state variables in sequential decision problems, linking them to Markovian and non-Markovian models.

problem Sequential decision problems, especially in active learning and POMDPs, where decisions affect what is observed and learned.
method Canonical framework and novel two-agent perspective of POMDPs, defining state variables to claim Markovian or non-Markovian models.
result Properly modeled sequential decision problems are Markovian, while real decision problems are often non-Markovian.

Paper solves Merton's portfolio problem in a non-Markovian, non-semimartingale model.

problem Merton's portfolio optimization in a fake stationary Volterra-Heston model.
method Stochastic factor solution to a Riccati BSDE, combined with martingale optimality principle.
result Derives semi-closed form optimal strategies and value function.

This work expands state-action aggregation methods for non-Markovian environments.

problem Real-world problems with large state and action spaces are not tractable with existing methods.
method Expands Extreme State Aggregation (ESA) framework to non-Markovian homomorphisms and relaxes policy uniformity.
result Near-optimal performance is guaranteed even for non-Markovian homomorphisms.

Study on kinetic Langevin diffusions and their couplings, showing subtle TV bounds and new non-Markovian couplings.

problem Understanding and quantifying the TV distance between solutions of kinetic Langevin diffusions with different initial values.
method Established new non-Markovian couplings for kinetic Langevin diffusions, derived from optimal coalescence trajectories, and analyzed their TV bounds.
result No Markovian coupling can capture the asymptotic decay rate of the TV distance between solutions of kinetic Langevin diffusions with different initial values.

New approach tackles non-Markovian behavior in maternal health programs.

problem Improving adherence and engagement in maternal and child healthcare programs.
method Extending RMABs to non-Markovian settings, using time-series forecasting and TARI policy.
result Significant increase in engagement and content listened compared to existing methods.

Two efficient ML techniques compute American option prices in high-dimensional models, including non-Markovian ones.

problem Computing prices of American options in high-dimensional, possibly non-Markovian models.
method GPR Tree and GPR Exact Integration methods using machine learning and binomial trees/integration.
result Accurate and reliable methods for pricing American options in high-dimensional and non-Markovian models.

FLDD improves discrete diffusion models by learning a non-Markovian noising process.

problem Efficiency and quality of discrete diffusion models in few-step generation.
method Introduces a learnable non-Markovian forward (noising) process to match the target distribution.
result FLDD produces higher quality samples in fewer steps compared to conventional discrete diffusion models.