The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian Lévy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian Lévy noise may have infinite variance. A modified Kalman filter for linear systems wi…
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48 results for “non-Gaussian systems”
This research develops an evolutionary approach to discover non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Discovering explicit governing equations of stochastic dynamical systems with Lévy noise from data.
method ESSR approach using genetic programming, sparse regression, and nonlocal Kramers-Moyal formulas.
result The approach effectively extracts non-Gaussian stochastic dynamical systems from sample path data.
Data-Efficient Non-Gaussian Semi-Nonparametric Density Estimation for Nonlinear Dynamical Systemsmath.OC
This paper presents a method for efficient density estimation in nonlinear systems.
problem Accurate representation of non-Gaussian distributions in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging.
method Uses Seminonparametric (SNP) densities with probabilists' Hermite polynomial basis and Monte Carlo approximation for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Demonstrates that the method can accurately capture non-Gaussian density structure and compute quantiles using fewer samples than raw Monte Carlo.
Method extracts governing laws from non-Gaussian stochastic systems data.
problem Modeling complex dynamics with non-Gaussian Lévy noise.
method Data-driven method to extract stochastic dynamical systems from noisy data.
result Established a theoretical framework and numerical algorithm to compute Lévy jump measure, drift, and diffusion.
A Data-Driven Approach for Discovering Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Non-Gaussian Levy Noisestat.ML
Develops a new method to discover stochastic systems with non-Gaussian noise.
problem Discovering governing laws from complex systems with non-Gaussian noise.
method Theoretical framework and numerical algorithm to extract stochastic differential equations with Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise.
result Demonstrated the efficacy and accuracy of the approach on various systems.
Method extracts stochastic systems with Lévy noise from data.
problem Identifying stochastic dynamical systems with Lévy noise from short data.
method Estimate Lévy jump measure and noise intensity, approximate drift coefficient.
result Accurate and effective method for discovering stochastic laws.
Study on Kyle-Back model with risk aversion and non-Gaussian beliefs.
problem Existence of equilibrium in Kyle's insider trading model.
method Forward-backward system coupled via optimal transport constraint, stochastic representation, well-posedness of solutions.
result Existence and properties of equilibrium for small risk aversion parameter.
Algorithm learns non-Gaussian graphical models via Hessian scores and triangular transport.
problem Learning graph structure from non-Gaussian data.
method Score based on integrated Hessian information, coupled with triangular transport map.
result Algorithm successfully recovers graph structure for non-Gaussian data.
Study of a risk-averse informed trader in a multi-asset market with non-Gaussian prices.
problem Existence of equilibrium in a multi-asset market with non-Gaussian prices and a risk-averse informed trader.
method Constructed equilibrium using Fokker-Planck equation and coupled partial differential equations with an optimal transport constraint.
result Equilibrium exists in a market with multiple assets and non-Gaussian prices.
Adaptive algorithm improves nonlinear data assimilation for non-Gaussian systems.
problem Challenges of non-Gaussian statistics in data assimilation.
method Triangular measure transport with P-spline basis functions and an information criterion.
result Automatic selection of parsimonious parametrization for efficient adaptation.
This work extracts stochastic dynamical systems with -stable Lévy noise.
problem Extracting data-driven governing laws of dynamical systems with non-Gaussian noise.
method End-to-end deep learning approach for learning drift and diffusion coefficients for -stable Lévy noise.
result Effectiveness of the method confirmed by numerical experiments.
We revisit the Bayesian online inference problems for the linear dynamic systems (LDS) under non- Gaussian environment. The noises can naturally be non-Gaussian (skewed and/or heavy tailed) or to accommodate spurious observations, noises can be modeled as heavy tailed. However, at the cost of such noise robustness, the…
A new method improves Bayesian filtering in nonlinear systems.
problem Bayesian filtering in nonlinear dynamical systems with non-Gaussian posteriors.
method Transport maps with block-triangular structure and gradient flows for MMD minimization.
result Accurate approximation of non-Gaussian posteriors without particle collapse.
Robust method estimates state, input, and parameters of linear systems online.
problem Joint estimation of state, input, and parameters in noisy or outlier-prone measurements.
method Combines recursive, alternating, and iteratively-reweighted least squares into a single algorithm.
result Good performance in presence of outliers and compared to state-of-the-art methods.
New methods discover causal relationships from multiple related data views.
problem Causal discovery from non-Gaussian data.
method Multi-view linear Structural Equation Model (SEM) with weak assumptions.
result Identifiability of acyclic SEMs and successful causal graph estimation.
Identifiability Without Gaussianity: Symbolic World Models and Near-Infinite Temporal Consistencystat.ML
Symbolic grounding in causal dynamics achieves near-infinite temporal consistency.
problem Achieving linear identifiability in non-Gaussian physical systems.
method Physics-Grounded Symbolic Architecture (PGSA)
result PGSA achieves exact linear identifiability for all physical regimes.
ATPF combines PF and EnKF for better inference in complex systems.
problem Weight degeneracy in PF and approximation errors in EnKF.
method Adversarial learning to improve posterior matching and incorporate kernel methods for optimization.
result ATPF provides theoretical guarantees and practical advantages over PF and EnKF.
New nonlinear smoothers improve state estimation in chaotic systems.
problem Improving state estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian behavior.
method Developed nonlinear backward ensemble transport smoothers with parameterization and regularization of transport maps.
result Nonlinear smoothers yield lower estimation error than conventional methods for comparable model evaluations.
A new flow-based Bayesian filter tackles high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems.
problem Bayesian filtering for high-dimensional nonlinear systems is challenging due to non-Gaussian distributions and computational limitations.
method Integrates normalizing flows to construct a latent linear state-space model with efficient density estimation and sampling.
result Demonstrates superior accuracy and efficiency in numerical experiments.
The random matrix theory method of planar Gaussian diagrammatic expansion is applied to find the mean spectral density of the Hermitian equal-time and non-Hermitian time-lagged cross-covariance estimators, firstly in the form of master equations for the most general multivariate Gaussian system, secondly for seven part…
We introduce a framework for model learning and planning in stochastic domains with continuous state and action spaces and non-Gaussian transition models. It is efficient because (1) local models are estimated only when the planner requires them; (2) the planner focuses on the most relevant states to the current planni…
New method extracts stochastic laws from data, including Lévy noise.
problem Extracting stochastic laws from data with non-Gaussian noise.
method Using normalizing flows to estimate transition density, then applying nonlocal Kramers-Moyal formulas.
result Can learn stochastic differential equations with Lévy motion.
A multi-time scale non-Gaussian model of stock returnscond-mat.other
We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary non-Gaussian process which captures many features observed in time series of real stock r…
Recursive KalmanNet combines neural networks with Kalman filters for precise state estimation.
problem State estimation in systems with noisy measurements and non-Gaussian noise.
method Recursive KalmanNet uses a recurrent neural network to estimate states with consistent error covariance, optimizing for Gaussian negative log-likelihood.
result Recursive KalmanNet outperforms conventional Kalman filters and deep learning-based estimators in non-Gaussian noise conditions.
Quantum model captures rare financial events not seen by Gaussian statistics.
problem Underestimation of rare financial events by Gaussian statistics.
method Quantum Bohmian Mechanics applied to multifractal random walk (MRW) models.
result Rare financial events generate a potential barrier in quantum potentials.
Bayesian neural networks approximate Gaussian, this method adapts to non-Gaussian posteriors.
problem Bayesian neural networks struggle with non-Gaussian posteriors, leading to poor performance.
method Proposes a Riemannian Laplace approximation to adapt to the shape of the true posterior.
result Consistently improves over conventional Laplace approximation across tasks.
Research on long-range memory in financial and social systems using various models.
problem Understanding the nature of long-range memory in socioeconomic systems.
method Various Markov processes including point processes, stochastic differential equations, and agent-based models.
result New estimators of self-similarity and long-range memory for non-Gaussian systems are needed.
This work studies the problem of stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs. The main contribution is GP-SUM, a filtering algorithm tailored to dynamic systems and observation models expressed as Gaussian Processes (GP), and to states represented as a weighted sum of Gaussians. The key attr…
One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more than two decades ago), provide numerical solutions to the nonlinear state estima…
The paper analyzes the non-Gaussian behavior of inflation and unemployment over 70 years using multifractal methods.
problem Capturing unusual fluctuations in inflation and unemployment over long periods.
method Coupled multifractal approach to analyze non-Gaussian distributions of inflation and unemployment over 70 years.
result The non-Gaussianity of unemployment is noticeable only for periods smaller than 1 year, while inflation's non-Gaussianity persists across all time scales.
Self-organization of value and demandcond-mat.stat-mech
We study the dynamics of exchange value in a system composed of many interacting agents. The simple model we propose exhibits cooperative emergence and collapse of global value for individual goods. We demonstrate that the demand that drives the value exhibits non Gaussian "fat tails" and typical fluctuations which gro…
We consider the problem of learning causal models from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models with latent variables. Without considering the effect of latent variables, one usually infers wrong causal relationships among the observed variables. Under faithfulness assumption, we propos…
Independent component analysis (ICA) decomposes multivariate data into mutually independent components (ICs). The ICA model is subject to a constraint that at most one of these components is Gaussian, which is required for model identifiability. Linear non-Gaussian component analysis (LNGCA) generalizes the ICA model t…
Latent force models are systems whereby there is a mechanistic model describing the dynamics of the system state, with some unknown forcing term that is approximated with a Gaussian process. If such dynamics are non-linear, it can be difficult to estimate the posterior state and forcing term jointly, particularly when …
Filtering is a general name for inferring the states of a dynamical system given observations. The most common filtering approach is Gaussian Filtering (GF) where the distribution of the inferred states is a Gaussian whose mean is an affine function of the observations. There are two restrictions in this model: Gaussia…
ICA reveals deep learning's feature learning mechanisms from non-Gaussian data.
problem Understanding feature learning from non-Gaussian inputs in deep neural networks.
method Investigates ICA and SGD on synthetic and real data.
result FastICA requires samples for single non-Gaussian direction recovery, while SGD outperforms and optimised SGD reaches .
Improves graph-based active learning for non-Gaussian models.
problem Efficiently selecting data points for labeling in graph-based semi-supervised learning.
method Approximates non-Gaussian distributions, introduces rank-one update and model change acquisition function.
result Enhanced active learning for graph-based SSL under non-Gaussian models.
Long-lead forecasting for spatio-temporal systems can often entail complex nonlinear dynamics that are difficult to specify it a priori. Current statistical methodologies for modeling these processes are often highly parameterized and thus, challenging to implement from a computational perspective. One potential parsim…
The problem of Non-Gaussian Component Analysis (NGCA) is about finding a maximal low-dimensional subspace in so that data points projected onto follow a non-gaussian distribution. Although this is an appropriate model for some real world data analysis problems, there has been little progress on t…
New algorithm for learning causal structures with disjoint cycles in linear non-Gaussian models.
problem Learning causal structures with cycles in linear non-Gaussian models.
method Characterizing when graphs determine the same model, using quadratic and cubic polynomial relations, and a strategy of decorrelating cycles and multivariate regression.
result Consistent and computationally efficient algorithm for learning causal structures with disjoint cycles.
The paper finds non-Gaussian directions in high-dimensional data using Wasserstein distance.
problem Locating interesting non-Gaussian features in high-dimensional data.
method Projection pursuit using 2-Wasserstein distance to maximize the difference from Gaussian.
result Statistical guarantees for accurately approximating an unknown low-dimensional non-Gaussian subspace.
Proposes efficient Gaussian approximations for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
problem Computational challenges in learning and inference with non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Variational inference and moment matching in transformed bases.
result Good approximation quality for binary and multiclass classification.
Bayesian framework predicts post-disruption travel times in metro networks.
problem Uncertainty in post-disruption travel times in metro networks.
method Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling framework capturing train interactions and non-Gaussian distributional characteristics.
result The proposed models consistently outperform baseline specifications in point prediction and uncertainty quantification.
A new vine copula mixture model improves clustering accuracy for non-Gaussian data.
problem Finite mixture models struggle with asymmetric tail dependencies and non-elliptical clusters.
method Proposes a vine copula mixture model for clustering non-Gaussian data, addressing model selection and parameter estimation.
result Significant improvement in clustering accuracy for data with asymmetric tail dependencies or non-Gaussian margins.
Real world systems typically feature a variety of different dependency types and topologies that complicate model selection for probabilistic graphical models. We introduce the ensemble-of-forests model, a generalization of the ensemble-of-trees model. Our model enables structure learning of Markov random fields (MRF) …
Sparse non-Gaussian component analysis (SNGCA) is an unsupervised method of extracting a linear structure from a high dimensional data based on estimating a low-dimensional non-Gaussian data component. In this paper we discuss a new approach to direct estimation of the projector on the target space based on semidefinit…
Paper solves NGCA for discrete distributions using LLL method.
problem Learning hidden non-Gaussian components in discrete distributions.
method Utilizes LLL lattice basis reduction method.
result Sample and computationally efficient algorithm for NGCA in discrete distributions.
Wavelet scattering spectra model non-Gaussian time-series, proving scale invariance for self-similar processes.
problem Modeling non-Gaussian time-series with stationary increments.
method Complex wavelet transform for scale variations, joint correlation matrix for scale dependencies, second wavelet transform for diagonalization, maximum entropy models conditioned by scattering spectra coefficients.
result Scattering spectra of self-similar processes are scale invariant, allowing statistical testing and generation of new time-series.