The analysis of observed conditional distributions of both lagged and simultaneous intraday price increments of a basket of stocks reveals phenomena of dependence - induced volatility smile and kurtosis reduction. A model based on multivariate t-Student distribution shows that the observed effects are caused by colelct…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,738 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “non-Gaussian observations”
Improved Kalman filter for non-linear, non-Gaussian data.
problem Estimating hidden variables with non-linear, non-Gaussian observations.
method Reproduces and extends Burkhart et al.'s discriminative Kalman filter.
result Enhanced filter performance for complex observation models.
New method learns graph structure with hidden causes from observational data.
problem Learning the structure of linear non-Gaussian models with hidden causes.
method Augments hidden variable structure by learning multidirected edges and uses higher order cumulants.
result Correct structure recovery for bow-free acyclic mixed graphs with multi-directed edges.
The paper analyzes the non-Gaussian behavior of inflation and unemployment over 70 years using multifractal methods.
problem Capturing unusual fluctuations in inflation and unemployment over long periods.
method Coupled multifractal approach to analyze non-Gaussian distributions of inflation and unemployment over 70 years.
result The non-Gaussianity of unemployment is noticeable only for periods smaller than 1 year, while inflation's non-Gaussianity persists across all time scales.
Extends Gaussian process regression for non-Gaussian data.
problem Inadequate modeling of uncertainty and over-smoothing in non-Gaussian datasets.
method Time-changed Gaussian processes with Lévy processes.
result Improved modeling of heavy-tailed non-Gaussian behaviors.
We consider the problem of learning causal models from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models with latent variables. Without considering the effect of latent variables, one usually infers wrong causal relationships among the observed variables. Under faithfulness assumption, we propos…
Independent component analysis (ICA) decomposes multivariate data into mutually independent components (ICs). The ICA model is subject to a constraint that at most one of these components is Gaussian, which is required for model identifiability. Linear non-Gaussian component analysis (LNGCA) generalizes the ICA model t…
A Data-Driven Approach for Discovering Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Non-Gaussian Levy Noisestat.ML
Develops a new method to discover stochastic systems with non-Gaussian noise.
problem Discovering governing laws from complex systems with non-Gaussian noise.
method Theoretical framework and numerical algorithm to extract stochastic differential equations with Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise.
result Demonstrated the efficacy and accuracy of the approach on various systems.
We revisit the Bayesian online inference problems for the linear dynamic systems (LDS) under non- Gaussian environment. The noises can naturally be non-Gaussian (skewed and/or heavy tailed) or to accommodate spurious observations, noises can be modeled as heavy tailed. However, at the cost of such noise robustness, the…
New method detects causal relationships from noisy measurements.
problem Discover causal relationships from noisy, imperfect measurements.
method Transformed Independent Noise (TIN) condition and ordered group decomposition.
result Identifies causal graph structure without over-complete ICA.
Proposes efficient Gaussian approximations for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
problem Computational challenges in learning and inference with non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Variational inference and moment matching in transformed bases.
result Good approximation quality for binary and multiclass classification.
New bounds for kernel regression under non-Gaussian noise.
problem Uncertainty quantification for function estimates from noisy observations.
method Novel non-asymptotic probabilistic uniform error bounds for kernel-based regression.
result Proposed bounds apply to a broad class of non-Gaussian noise distributions.
A Bayesian estimation approach to analyze non-Gaussian data-generating processes with latent classesstat.ML
A large amount of observational data has been accumulated in various fields in recent times, and there is a growing need to estimate the generating processes of these data. A linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) based on the non-Gaussianity of external influences has been proposed to estimate the data-generating …
A multi-time scale non-Gaussian model of stock returnscond-mat.other
We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary non-Gaussian process which captures many features observed in time series of real stock r…
New theory allows ICA without assuming non-Gaussian sources.
problem Traditional ICA struggles with Gaussian sources.
method Developed identifiability theory based on second-order statistics and sparsity.
result Identifiability theory and estimation methods validated experimentally.
ICA reveals deep learning's feature learning mechanisms from non-Gaussian data.
problem Understanding feature learning from non-Gaussian inputs in deep neural networks.
method Investigates ICA and SGD on synthetic and real data.
result FastICA requires samples for single non-Gaussian direction recovery, while SGD outperforms and optimised SGD reaches .
Method extracts governing laws from non-Gaussian stochastic systems data.
problem Modeling complex dynamics with non-Gaussian Lévy noise.
method Data-driven method to extract stochastic dynamical systems from noisy data.
result Established a theoretical framework and numerical algorithm to compute Lévy jump measure, drift, and diffusion.
Many statistical methods have been proposed to estimate causal models in classical situations with fewer variables than observations (p<n, p: the number of variables and n: the number of observations). However, modern datasets including gene expression data need high-dimensional causal modeling in challenging situation…
A Non-Gaussian Option Pricing Model with Skewcond-mat.other
Closed form option pricing formulae explaining skew and smile are obtained within a parsimonious non-Gaussian framework. We extend the non-Gaussian option pricing model of L. Borland (Quantitative Finance, {\bf 2}, 415-431, 2002) to include volatility-stock correlations consistent with the leverage effect. A generalize…
This work preserves linear invariants in ensemble filters for non-Gaussian data assimilation.
problem Maintaining critical invariants like mass, stoichiometric balance, and charge in non-Gaussian data assimilation.
method Introducing a novel class of nonlinear ensemble filters using measure transport theory.
result Recovery of a constrained Kalman filter for Gaussian settings and combination with regularization techniques.
Modeling spatial extremes with non-Gaussian fields using SAR models and CNNs.
problem Challenges in modeling spatial data with heavy-tailed distributions and missing cells.
method Spatial autoregressive models with Generalized Extreme Value innovations, combined with CNN for fast parameter estimation.
result Effective modeling of spatial extremes in non-Gaussian fields, demonstrated on precipitation data.
Study compares various non-Gaussian models for financial returns.
problem Leptokurtic, heavy-tailed financial returns defy Gaussian assumptions.
method Compared and simulated various non-Gaussian models using Monte Carlo.
result Consistency in modeling scaling properties of large price changes.
In recent years, several methods have been proposed for the discovery of causal structure from non-experimental data (Spirtes et al. 2000; Pearl 2000). Such methods make various assumptions on the data generating process to facilitate its identification from purely observational data. Continuing this line of research, …
The paper reviews identifiability in linear and nonlinear models, from Gaussian to non-Gaussian.
problem Identifiability issues in latent-variable and structural-equation models, especially in nonlinear cases.
method Review of identifiability theory for linear and nonlinear models, including factor analysis and structural equation models.
result Even nonparametric nonlinear models can be estimated with additional assumptions.
Study identifies parameters in causal models with latent confounding.
problem Parameter identification in linear non-Gaussian causal models with latent confounding.
method Graphical criterion for necessary and sufficient identifiability of direct causal effects, with polynomial-time algorithm.
result Developed a graphical criterion for identifying direct causal effects in latent variable models with arbitrary non-linear confounding.
Method extracts stochastic systems with Lévy noise from data.
problem Identifying stochastic dynamical systems with Lévy noise from short data.
method Estimate Lévy jump measure and noise intensity, approximate drift coefficient.
result Accurate and effective method for discovering stochastic laws.
New algorithm identifies causal effects in latent confounding models.
problem Identifying causal effects in linear non-Gaussian models with latent confounding.
method Recursive algorithm using rank conditions on higher-order cumulants.
result Algorithm achieves comparable performance to overcomplete ICA without knowing the number of latent variables.
Paper analyzes holdout cross-validation for large non-Gaussian covariance estimation.
problem Estimating large covariance matrices for non-Gaussian data.
method Use of Weingarten calculus and Ledoit-Péché formula for theoretical error derivation.
result Optimal train-test split ratio is proportional to square root of matrix dimension.
Bayesian method identifies causal DAG structure from non-Gaussian errors.
problem Learning causal structure from non-Gaussian errors in Bayesian networks.
method Bayesian hierarchical model with DAG prior for non-Gaussian errors.
result Posterior DAG selection consistency achieved under mild assumptions.
This work studies the problem of stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs. The main contribution is GP-SUM, a filtering algorithm tailored to dynamic systems and observation models expressed as Gaussian Processes (GP), and to states represented as a weighted sum of Gaussians. The key attr…
Fast approximate inference for non-Gaussian data.
problem Efficient inference for non-Gaussian data.
method Laplace Matching for fast approximate inference in latent Gaussian models.
result Achieves high approximation quality with low computational cost.
A new method improves Bayesian filtering in nonlinear systems.
problem Bayesian filtering in nonlinear dynamical systems with non-Gaussian posteriors.
method Transport maps with block-triangular structure and gradient flows for MMD minimization.
result Accurate approximation of non-Gaussian posteriors without particle collapse.
The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian Lévy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian Lévy noise may have infinite variance. A modified Kalman filter for linear systems wi…
OT-ICA uses optimal transport to find independent components, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Finding independent components from linear mixtures of signals.
method OT-ICA uses the squared Wasserstein distance to maximize non-Gaussianity, optimizing projections via gradient descent.
result OT-ICA outperforms traditional proxy-based methods in various applications.
We consider learning the possible causal direction of two observed variables in the presence of latent confounding variables. Several existing methods have been shown to consistently estimate causal direction assuming linear or some type of nonlinear relationship and no latent confounders. However, the estimation resul…
Paper uses optimal transport for Bayesian filtering, deriving new EnKF and FPF formulations.
problem Bayesian filtering for nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian observations.
method Optimal transport theory applied to Bayes' law, constructing Brenier maps.
result New variational formulations of EnKF and FPF for non-Gaussian settings.
Optimizes experiment design for causal structure learning in linear models with cycles.
problem Causal structure learning from combined observational and interventional data in linear non-Gaussian cyclic models.
method Combinatorial characterization of equivalence classes, adaptive stochastic optimization, greedy policy with near-optimal performance guarantee, sampling-based estimator for reward function.
result Optimal experiment design reduces the equivalence class of causal graphs to a single true graph with a small number of interventions.
We consider filtering in high-dimensional non-Gaussian state-space models with intractable transition kernels, nonlinear and possibly chaotic dynamics, and sparse observations in space and time. We propose a novel filtering methodology that harnesses transportation of measures, convex optimization, and ideas from proba…
The Accardi-Boukas quantum Black-Scholes framework, provides a means by which one can apply the Hudson-Parthasarathy quantum stochastic calculus to problems in finance. Solutions to these equations can be modelled using nonlocal diffusion processes, via a Kramers-Moyal expansion, and this provides useful tools to under…
The ability to track a moving vehicle is of crucial importance in numerous applications. The task has often been approached by the importance sampling technique of particle filters due to its ability to model non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamics, of which a vehicle travelling on a road network is a good example. Partic…
TSLiNGAM improves causal discovery in heavy-tailed data.
problem Identifying causal relationships in data with heavy tails.
method Combines DAGs with structural causal models, leveraging non-Gaussian noise.
result Significantly better performance on heavy-tailed and skewed data.
AR-Flow VAE improves blind source separation with flexible autoregressive priors.
problem Unsupervised blind source separation of latent signals from mixtures.
method AR-Flow VAE uses autoregressive flows to model latent sources, enhancing flexibility and capturing complex dependencies.
result AR-Flow VAE effectively separates latent sources, demonstrating improved performance over conventional methods.
Filtering is a general name for inferring the states of a dynamical system given observations. The most common filtering approach is Gaussian Filtering (GF) where the distribution of the inferred states is a Gaussian whose mean is an affine function of the observations. There are two restrictions in this model: Gaussia…
We propose flow-based likelihoods to accurately capture non-Gaussian data.
problem Bypassing the Gaussian assumption in scientific analyses.
method Use optimization targets of flow-based generative models to reconstruct likelihoods.
result Flow-based likelihoods can accurately capture non-Gaussian data, improving parameter constraints.
ATPF combines PF and EnKF for better inference in complex systems.
problem Weight degeneracy in PF and approximation errors in EnKF.
method Adversarial learning to improve posterior matching and incorporate kernel methods for optimization.
result ATPF provides theoretical guarantees and practical advantages over PF and EnKF.
New nonlinear smoothers improve state estimation in chaotic systems.
problem Improving state estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian behavior.
method Developed nonlinear backward ensemble transport smoothers with parameterization and regularization of transport maps.
result Nonlinear smoothers yield lower estimation error than conventional methods for comparable model evaluations.
Forward-looking portfolio selection with multivariate non-Gaussian models and the Esscher transformq-fin.PM
In this study we suggest a portfolio selection framework based on option-implied information and multivariate non-Gaussian models. The proposed models incorporate skewness, kurtosis and more complex dependence structures among stocks log-returns than the simple correlation matrix. The two models considered are a multiv…
Bayesian non-linear latent variable modeling for complex data.
problem Inference for GPLVMs is computationally limited and often leads to overfitting or underestimates uncertainty.
method Approximate Gaussian process mappings with random Fourier features for MCMC inference.
result Generalized RFLVMs perform well on various data types and applications.