arXiv research

This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) can estimate the uncertainty in predictions, as opposed to non-Bayesian neural networks (NNs). However, BNNs have been far less widely used than non-Bayesian NNs in practice since they need iterative NN executions to predict a result for one data, and it gives rise to prohibitive computat…

We overview some results on distributed learning with focus on a family of recently proposed algorithms known as non-Bayesian social learning. We consider different approaches to the distributed learning problem and its algorithmic solutions for the case of finitely many hypotheses. The original centralized problem is …

Bayesian method improves portfolio management with limited data.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) provide state-of-the-art results for a multitude of applications, but the approaches using DNNs for multimodal audiovisual applications do not consider predictive uncertainty associated with individual modalities. Bayesian deep learning methods provide principled confidence and quantify pred…

Asynchronous cooperative learning rules ensure all agents converge to correct hypothesis.

Efficient method for uncertainty estimation in DNNs with improved accuracy.

Unified predictive uncertainty disentangled using deep split ensembles.

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are commonly the two main problems classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, architectures have to s…

In binary-transaction data-mining, traditional frequent itemset mining often produces results which are not straightforward to interpret. To overcome this problem, probability models are often used to produce more compact and conclusive results, albeit with some loss of accuracy. Bayesian statistics have been widely us…

A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading environment over time. With new methodologies and a new measure of the degree o…

Bayesian supertrees method uses variational Bayes for overlapping taxon subsets.

Bayesian interpretation of deep ensembles improves uncertainty quantification.

DP-BNNs improve accuracy, privacy, and reliability in neural networks.

In this paper, we present a Bayesian channel estimation algorithm for multicarrier receivers based on pilot symbol observations. The inherent sparse nature of wireless multipath channels is exploited by modeling the prior distribution of multipath components' gains with a hierarchical representation of the Bessel K pro…

Bayesian Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) is a promising approach for understanding uncertainty and structure in matrix data. However, a large volume of applied work optimizes traditional non-Bayesian NMF objectives that fail to provide a principled understanding of the non-identifiability inherent in NMF-- an i…

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic. First, model uncertainty cannot be measured thus limiting the use of deep learni…

Many efficient algorithms with strong theoretical guarantees have been proposed for the contextual multi-armed bandit problem. However, applying these algorithms in practice can be difficult because they require domain expertise to build appropriate features and to tune their parameters. We propose a new method for the…

Modern deep neural network models suffer from adversarial examples, i.e. confidently misclassified points in the input space. It has been shown that Bayesian neural networks are a promising approach for detecting adversarial points, but careful analysis is problematic due to the complexity of these models. Recently Gil…

Paper tackles model vulnerabilities by reconstructing training data.

A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven to be efficient because, unlike conventional methods, it does not require Kalma…

We present a distributed (non-Bayesian) learning algorithm for the problem of parameter estimation with Gaussian noise. The algorithm is expressed as explicit updates on the parameters of the Gaussian beliefs (i.e. means and precision). We show a convergence rate of $O(1/k)$ with the constant term depending on the numb…

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (N-ODEs) are a powerful building block for learning systems, which extend residual networks to a continuous-time dynamical system. We propose a Bayesian version of N-ODEs that enables well-calibrated quantification of prediction uncertainty, while maintaining the expressive power …

Video analytics requires operating with large amounts of data. Compressive sensing allows to reduce the number of measurements required to represent the video using the prior knowledge of sparsity of the original signal, but it imposes certain conditions on the design matrix. The Bayesian compressive sensing approach r…

This work explores non-negative low-rank matrix factorization based on regularized Poisson models (PF or "Poisson factorization" for short) for recommender systems with implicit-feedback data. The properties of Poisson likelihood allow a shortcut for very fast computations over zero-valued inputs, and oftentimes result…

The rapid development of computing power and efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation algorithms have revolutionized Bayesian statistics, making it a highly practical inference method in applied work. However, MCMC algorithms tend to be computationally demanding, and are particularly slow for large datasets…

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the classification problem at hand. We demonstrate that such techniques tend to introduc…

A recent paper by Liu et al. combines the topics of adversarial training and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and suggests that adversarially trained BNNs are more robust against adversarial attacks than their non-Bayesian counterparts. Here, I analyze the proposed defense and suggest that one needs to adjust the adversa…

Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian NNs to estimate a continuous target as well as its associated evidence in order …

Novel active learning framework using sparse approximation for efficient model training.

A network of agents attempt to learn some unknown state of the world drawn by nature from a finite set. Agents observe private signals conditioned on the true state, and form beliefs about the unknown state accordingly. Each agent may face an identification problem in the sense that she cannot distinguish the truth in …

Two main obstacles preventing the widespread adoption of variational Bayesian neural networks are the high parameter overhead that makes them infeasible on large networks, and the difficulty of implementation, which can be thought of as "programming overhead." MC dropout [Gal and Ghahramani, 2016] is popular because it…

New method estimates insurance risk dependencies.

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for …

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve …

A framework and benchmark for deep batch active learning in neural networks.

This paper examines the integration process of the Japanese major rice markets (Tokyo and Osaka) from 1881 to 1932. Using a non-Bayesian time-varying vector error correction model, we argue that the process strongly depended on the government's policy on the network system of the telegram and telephone; rice traders wi…

Bayesian neural networks speed up numerical integration.

The paper classifies U.S. crop types using hyperspectral satellite imagery.

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to distributional mismatch between the test and training data distributions. Differe…

Bayesian meta-reinforcement learning improves over point estimates with Laplace approximation.

We consider a distributed learning setup where a network of agents sequentially access realizations of a set of random variables with unknown distributions. The network objective is to find a parametrized distribution that best describes their joint observations in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Apart fr…

SDE-Net quantifies uncertainty in deep nets using stochastic dynamics.

INNs produce interval-valued uncertainty scores for DNNs.

Distance metric learning is an important component for many tasks, such as statistical classification and content-based image retrieval. Existing approaches for learning distance metrics from pairwise constraints typically suffer from two major problems. First, most algorithms only offer point estimation of the distanc…

We propose a framework that lifts the capabilities of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) to scenarios where no input graph is given and increases their robustness to adversarial attacks. We formulate a joint probabilistic model that considers a prior distribution over graphs along with a GCN-based likelihood and devel…

Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks is essential for designing reliable and robust AI systems. Applications such as video surveillance for identifying suspicious activities are designed with deep neural networks (DNNs), but DNNs do not provide uncertainty estimates. Capturing reliable uncertainty estimates i…

MixupMP improves uncertainty quantification in neural networks using data augmentation.