Exact distribution of split conformal prediction coverage found.
problem Determining the reliability of prediction sets in batch mode.
method Analysis of exchangeable data to find universal distribution of empirical coverage.
result Exact distribution of empirical coverage is universal and determined by nominal miscoverage level and calibration sample size.
TA-CQR predicts regression intervals with exact coverage, splitting miscoverage between endpoints.
problem Predicting regression intervals with exact coverage under reporting constraints.
method TA-CQR uses tail allocation to parameterize the oracle, estimating the allocation by searching quantile cores and applying nonnegative additive split-conformal calibration.
result TA-CQR achieves exact finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, with theoretical guarantees on calibration and length.
Improves conditional coverage of regression models using conformal prediction.
problem Lack of conditional coverage guarantees in conformal prediction methods.
method Proposes a novel algorithm to train a regression function to improve conditional coverage after split conformal prediction.
result Establishes an upper bound for miscoverage gap and proposes an end-to-end algorithm to control it.
ECI improves time series prediction uncertainty quantification by smoothing miscoverage error.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for time series prediction due to temporal dependence and distribution shift.
method Error-quantified Conformal Inference (ECI) by smoothing quantile loss function and introducing adaptive feedback scale.
result ECI achieves valid miscoverage control and tighter prediction sets than existing methods.
Adaptive conformal inference without data exchangeability assumptions.
problem Real-world scenarios often violate the data exchangeability assumption for conformal prediction.
method Parameter-free online convex optimization for adaptive conformal inference.
result Controls long-term miscoverage frequency at a nominal level empirically.
Develops methods to adjust prediction set coverage based on post-selection analysis.
problem Adjusting prediction set coverage after initial analysis to better fit specific needs.
method Post-selection conformal inference to adjust miscoverage levels.
result Allows for trade-off between coverage and prediction set quality.
SConU improves uncertainty prediction for large models by testing for outliers and reducing miscoverage.
problem Real-world deployment of large language models requires reliable guarantees of task-specific metrics.
method SConU implements significance tests to identify and exclude outliers that violate exchangeability assumptions.
result SConU reduces miscoverage rates and enhances prediction efficiency in high-stakes tasks.
Improved conformal prediction for better conditional coverage of classifier predictions.
problem Achieving exact conditional coverage in finite samples for prediction sets.
method Developed a variant of conformal prediction targeting coverage conditional on confidence and trust score.
result Empirically improved conditional coverage properties compared to standard conformal prediction.
New method prevents invalid inference after causal discovery.
problem Invalid inference after causal discovery.
method Developed tools for valid post-causal-discovery inference.
result Our method provides reliable coverage while achieving more accurate causal discovery.
Suppose that one particular block in a stochastic block model is of interest, but block labels are only observed for a few of the vertices in the network. Utilizing a graph realized from the model and the observed block labels, the vertex nomination task is to order the vertices with unobserved block labels into a rank…
Given a vertex of interest in a network G1, the vertex nomination problem seeks to find the corresponding vertex of interest (if it exists) in a second network G2. A vertex nomination scheme produces a list of the vertices in G2, ranked according to how likely they are judged to be the corresponding vertex of …
In this paper, a novel approach for coding nominal data is proposed. For the given nominal data, a rank in a form of complex number is assigned. The proposed method does not lose any information about the attribute and brings other properties previously unknown. The approach based on these knew properties can been used…
The paper introduces subgraph nomination for finding similar subgraphs in networks.
problem Finding similar subgraphs in networks using example subgraphs.
method Formalizes subgraph nomination framework with user-supervised retrieval.
result User-supervised retrieval improves performance in subgraph nomination.
Suppose that a graph is realized from a stochastic block model where one of the blocks is of interest, but many or all of the vertices' block labels are unobserved. The task is to order the vertices with unobserved block labels into a ``nomination list'' such that, with high probability, vertices from the interesting b…
New bounds on efficiency for conformalized regression methods.
problem Efficiency of conformal prediction in regression models.
method Non-asymptotic bounds on prediction set length for conformalized quantile and median regression.
result Identifies phase transitions in convergence rates across different regimes of miscoverage level.
Given a graph in which a few vertices are deemed interesting a priori, the vertex nomination task is to order the remaining vertices into a nomination list such that there is a concentration of interesting vertices at the top of the list. Previous work has yielded several approaches to this problem, with theoretical re…
New framework calibrates decision robustness using inverse conformal risk control.
problem Inadequate robustness levels in decision-making due to ad hoc choices.
method Constructs valid estimators to trace miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier.
result Provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on robustness levels.
The paper explores how to find relevant vertices in one graph using another graph's attributes and structure.
problem Finding relevant vertices in one graph using another graph's attributes and structure.
method Theoretical and practical exploration of vertex nomination schemes that leverage both content (edge and vertex attributes) and context (network topology).
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for schemes that use both content and context to outperform those using only one.
AEnbMIMOCQR generates robust multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.
problem Generating reliable multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.
method Adaptive ensemble batch multi-input multi-output conformalized quantile regression (AEnbMIMOCQR) based on conformal prediction principles.
result AEnbMIMOCQR provides close to exact coverage and robustness to distribution shifts.
When response variables are nominal and populations are cross-classified with respect to multiple polytomies, questions often arise about the degree of association of the responses with explanatory variables. When populations are known, we introduce a nominal association vector and matrix to evaluate the dependence of …
We construct models for the pricing and risk management of inflation-linked derivatives. The models are rational in the sense that linear payoffs written on the consumer price index have prices that are rational functions of the state variables. The nominal pricing kernel is constructed in a multiplicative manner that …
In the framework of prediction with expert advice, we consider a recently introduced kind of regret bounds: the bounds that depend on the effective instead of nominal number of experts. In contrast to the Normal- Hedge bound, which mainly depends on the effective number of experts but also weakly depends on the nominal…
Two-stage recommender systems show better performance when components interact rather than operate independently.
problem Two-stage recommender systems are often treated as sums of their parts, ignoring interactions between components.
method Used synthetic and real-world data to demonstrate interactions between ranker and nominators. Derived a generalization lower bound and proposed a Mixture-of-Experts approach to learn optimal item pools.
result Independent nominator training can lead to performance on par with random recommendations, highlighting the importance of interactions.
Proposes a new method to unlearn from specific data points in conformal predictors.
problem Challenges of existing unlearning methods in conformal predictors.
method Formalizes conformal unlearning, introduces practical metrics, and presents an optimization algorithm.
result Demonstrates effective removal of targeted information while preserving utility.
Backward Conformal Prediction offers flexible control over prediction set sizes while ensuring coverage guarantees.
problem Providing reliable prediction sets with controlled sizes in applications like medical diagnosis.
method Defines a rule that constrains prediction set sizes based on observed data, adapting coverage levels.
result Maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.
Proposes a new framework for uncertainty evaluation in ML classification models.
problem Uncertainty evaluation for ML classification models not addressed by existing metrological guidelines.
method Develops a metrological framework based on probability mass functions and summary statistics.
result Extends the GUM to uncertainty for nominal properties, applicable to ML classification models.
Develops FSC for maxima nominated samples, improving classification in rare-event data.
problem Combining labeled and unlabeled data in rare-event scenarios.
method Introduces a latent representation to account for maxima nomination sampling.
result Improves classification performance in rare-event contamination mixtures.
We demonstrate the existence of an empirical linkage between the nominal financial networks and the underlying economic fundamentals across countries. We construct the nominal return correlation networks from daily data to encapsulate sector-level dynamics and figure the relative importance of the sectors in the nomina…
Responds to critiques on tests for causal parameter confidence intervals.
problem Testing nominal confidence interval coverage for causal parameters estimated by machine learning.
method Rejoinder to critiques on nearly assumption-free tests.
result Clarifies and supports the original research's approach.
A fundamental problem arising in many areas of machine learning is the evaluation of the likelihood of a given observation under different nominal distributions. Frequently, these nominal distributions are themselves estimated from data, which makes them susceptible to estimation errors. We thus propose to replace each…
Timely detection of abrupt anomalies is crucial for real-time monitoring and security of modern systems producing high-dimensional data. With this goal, we propose effective and scalable algorithms. Proposed algorithms are nonparametric as both the nominal and anomalous multivariate data distributions are assumed unkno…
New RL algorithm learns robust policies without knowing nominal model.
problem Designing robust policies for RL with unknown nominal model.
method Model-based RL algorithm with three uncertainty set forms.
result Precise sample complexity for each uncertainty set.
Two-stage recommender systems struggle with exploration, leading to linear regret.
problem Linear regret in two-stage recommender systems due to exploration issues.
method Proposed a method to synchronize exploration strategies between the ranker and nominators using LinUCB.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm experimentally.
Information regarding the location of power distribution grid can be extracted from the power signature embedded in the multimedia signals (e.g., audio, video data) recorded near electrical activities. This implicit mechanism of identifying the origin-of-recording can be a very promising tool for multimedia forensics a…
A method for ranking items using distance-based learning from positive and unlabeled data.
problem Learning to rank items without an analytic description of what constitutes a good ranking.
method Combining representations using an integer linear program for ranking items based on nominations.
result The method is effective in simulation and real data examples, especially when supervision is light.
Given a pair of graphs G1 and G2 and a vertex set of interest in G1, the vertex nomination (VN) problem seeks to find the corresponding vertices of interest in G2 (if they exist) and produce a rank list of the vertices in G2, with the corresponding vertices of interest in G2 concentrating, ideally, at…
Resolving abstract anaphora is an important, but difficult task for text understanding. Yet, with recent advances in representation learning this task becomes a more tangible aim. A central property of abstract anaphora is that it establishes a relation between the anaphor embedded in the anaphoric sentence and its (ty…
New risk control method for non-monotonic losses in complex parameters.
problem Controlling risk for non-monotonic losses with multidimensional parameters.
method Stability-based guarantees for generic algorithms applied to non-monotonic losses.
result Guarantees depend on algorithm stability, with looser guarantees for unstable algorithms.
New model detects communities in network data from edge nominations.
problem Noise and bias in network data from edge nominations.
method General model for network sampling, spectral clustering, method of moments.
result Community detection improved for network data collected via edge nominations.
We develop a novel probabilistic generative model based on the variational autoencoder approach. Notable aspects of our architecture are: a novel way of specifying the latent variables prior, and the introduction of an ordinality enforcing unit. We describe how to do supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learnin…
Investigates optimal life insurance and annuity decisions in inflationary economies.
problem Optimal consumption and investment decisions in an inflationary economy with money illusion.
method Formulated as a random horizon utility maximization problem, derived optimal strategy.
result Money illusion increases life insurance demand for young adults and reduces annuity demand for retirees.
Adversarial robustness improved by abstaining from decisions.
problem Improving classification accuracy in the presence of adversarial perturbations.
method Introducing an abstain option in binary classification problems, using metrics to quantify performance and robustness.
result There is a tradeoff between nominal performance and adversarial robustness.
In this paper we introduce a class of information-based models for the pricing of fixed-income securities. We consider a set of continuous- time information processes that describe the flow of information about market factors in a monetary economy. The nominal pricing kernel is at any given time assumed to be given by …
An online framework optimizes efficiency in conformal prediction with a target miscoverage rate.
problem Achieving coverage and minimizing interval length in a sequential, online setting.
method Optimizes efficiency by directly optimizing the average length of intervals while maintaining coverage.
result Shows a gap between optimal performance for exchangeable and arbitrary sequences, and provides a matching algorithm for the Pareto-optimal settings.
DRO-NPE improves neural posterior estimation by reducing overconfidence and overfitting.
problem Overconfident and unreliable posteriors in simulation-based inference with limited simulation budgets.
method Distributionally robust approach using Wasserstein ambiguity set and KL-based metrics.
result Consistently improves coverage and calibration across benchmark tasks.
Noncritical soft-faults and model deviations are a challenge for Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) of resident Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). Such systems may have a faster performance degradation due to the permanent exposure to the marine environment, and constant monitoring of component conditions is requi…
The paper analyzes a five-factor capital market model and facilitates exact simulation.
problem Analyzing and simulating a five-factor capital market model.
method Using a Vasicek interest rate model, mean-reverting excess return, and realized inflation with expectation, the paper derives the necessary distributional results and describes practical methods to overcome rank deficiency.
result Exact simulation from the model can be achieved by sampling from a seven-dimensional normal distribution.
New method trims network data to resist adversarial contamination.
problem Adversarial contamination in network data affects statistical and algorithmic performance.
method Proposes a new trimming method operating in model space to address both block and white noise contamination.
result Demonstrates superior performance in simulations compared to direct trimming.