New algorithms for decision trees with noisy outcomes improve learning efficiency.
problem Learning with noisy outcomes in active learning.
method Approximation algorithms for optimal decision trees with persistent noise.
result Approximation algorithms provide nearly optimal performance guarantees.
Reduces variance in noisy social outcomes to improve policy evaluation and optimization.
problem Improving access to opportunity through personalized treatment decisions.
method Data-driven dimensionality-reduction using reduced rank regression to denoise multiple outcomes.
result Improves estimation error in policy evaluation and optimization, including on real-world data.
Bayesian model infers strengths from noisy tennis match outcomes.
problem Ranking tennis players from match outcomes.
method Bayesian approach to infer unobserved strengths and mapping function.
result Bayesian approach robust to different model specifications.
Develops a method to estimate treatment effects using noisy proxies over time.
problem Estimating individualized treatment effects from noisy proxies of confounders.
method Deconfounding Temporal Autoencoder (DTA) combining autoencoder and causal regularization.
result Improves treatment effect estimates by leveraging noisy proxies and learning hidden confounders.
The paper proposes a method to find subgroups with significant treatment effects in noisy data.
problem Estimating the causal effects of interventions on noisy outcomes.
method A machine-learning method specifically optimized for finding subgroups with significant effects, designed to maximize the probability of obtaining a statistically significant positive treatment effect.
result The proposed method yields higher power in detecting subgroups affected by the treatment compared to standard tree-based tools.
Randomized experiments are the gold standard for evaluating the effects of changes to real-world systems. Data in these tests may be difficult to collect and outcomes may have high variance, resulting in potentially large measurement error. Bayesian optimization is a promising technique for efficiently optimizing multi…
Improves matrix completion by exploiting biased observation patterns.
problem Matrix completion with biased observation patterns.
method Mask Nearest Neighbor (MNN) algorithm: two-stage process.
result MNN achieves competitive performance with 28x smaller mean squared error.
New framework estimates long-term outcomes from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term outcomes from short-term data.
method Reward function decomposition-based framework (LOPE).
result LOPE outperforms existing methods, especially when surrogacy is violated.
Optimal privacy-preserving ranking from noisy comparisons.
problem Protecting individual privacy in ranking from noisy comparisons.
method Differentially private ranking algorithms under edge and individual differential privacy.
result Achieved minimax optimal rates of convergence under privacy constraints.
Satellite imagery helps assess sustainable development with machine learning.
problem Lack of ground data on sustainable development outcomes.
method Combining satellite imagery with machine learning to model outcomes.
result Machine learning models perform well across multiple sustainable development domains.
Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is essential in medicine. A central challenge in estimating the ITE is handling confounders, which are factors that affect both an intervention and its outcome. Most previous work relies on the unconfoundedness assumption, which posits that all th…
SNPL learns safe policies for multi-objective interventions with high confidence.
problem Designing effective digital interventions balancing multiple objectives with noisy data.
method Leverages algorithmic stability to learn policies with high-confidence guarantees.
result Offers dramatic improvements in safety and policy gains with smaller sample sizes.
PROWL uses robust reward estimates to improve ITR selection.
problem Reward uncertainty in ITR estimation leads to inflated performance.
method PAC-Bayesian framework with reward uncertainty certificates.
result PROWL achieves better robust treatment regime estimation.
This paper studies the problem of finding the exact ranking from noisy comparisons. A comparison over a set of m items produces a noisy outcome about the most preferred item, and reveals some information about the ranking. By repeatedly and adaptively choosing items to compare, we want to fully rank the items with a …
When recruiting job candidates, employers rarely observe their underlying skill level directly. Instead, they must administer a series of interviews and/or collate other noisy signals in order to estimate the worker's skill. Traditional economics papers address screening models where employers access worker skill via a…
Develops framework for understanding deep learning in time series data.
problem Understanding and explaining decisions made by deep learning models in time series data.
method Uses deep neural networks to capture and explain temporal dependencies in time series data.
result Framework successfully captures and explains temporal dependencies in various synthetic and real-world datasets.
Quantum neural networks improve causal inference in biomedical studies, especially for small samples.
problem Addressing selection bias in comparing surgical techniques using observational data.
method Developed QNN-based propensity score models focusing on four key covariates (Age, Sex, Stage, BMI). Employed a linear ZFeatureMap for data encoding, SummedPaulis for predictions, and CMA-ES for optimization. Integrated noise modeling to enhance predictive stability.
result QNNs, particularly with noise-aware strategies, outperformed classical models in small samples, achieving AUC up to 0.750 for n=100.
This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and identifiability in prediction market outcomes from price-volume histories.
method Formulates prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems, introduces a log-odds observation model, and derives posterior uncertainty quantification and identifiability criteria.
result Explicit diagnostics for informative and stable inference regimes, and validation through synthetic data experiments.
Analyzes DNNs trained with noisy gradients, finding FWCs negligible for large n.
problem Analyzing DNNs trained with noisy gradients.
method Introduced analytical framework to analyze non-Gaussian stochastic process.
result FWCs negligible for large n, improving CNN performance.
Study agnostic feature-based dynamic pricing models with linear policies and noisy valuations.
problem Tackles dynamic pricing with unknown noise and no assumptions on data.
method Studies two agnostic models: linear policy and linear noisy valuation, presenting algorithms and regret bounds.
result Demonstrates no-regret learning is possible under weak assumptions, but noisy feedback is not significantly more useful than bandit feedback.
New method uses hindsight to make exploration robust in stochastic environments.
problem Exploration in sparse-reward or reward-free environments, especially in stochastic settings.
method Learn representations of the future that capture unpredictable aspects, using them to predict and reward only the predictable parts of the world.
result Improves exploration in Atari games and Montezuma's Revenge, robust to stochasticity.
Randomized classifiers improve strategic classification efficiency.
problem Designing optimal classifiers in strategic classification games.
method Investigation of randomized classifiers and their efficiency in strategic classification.
result Randomized classifiers are necessary for maximizing classification efficiency.
We consider the problem of learning to play a repeated multi-agent game with an unknown reward function. Single player online learning algorithms attain strong regret bounds when provided with full information feedback, which unfortunately is unavailable in many real-world scenarios. Bandit feedback alone, i.e., observ…
We derive fundamental sample complexity bounds for recovering sparse and structured signals for linear and nonlinear observation models including sparse regression, group testing, multivariate regression and problems with missing features. In general, sparse signal processing problems can be characterized in terms of t…
Bayesian method estimates causal effects with proxy networks.
problem Estimating causal effects with only proxy measurements of a latent interference network.
method Structural causal model with Block Gibbs sampler and Locally Informed Proposals.
result Accurately estimates causal effects even with noisy proxy networks.
Develops a method to infer partial rankings from sparse comparisons.
problem Challenges in ranking items with limited and noisy comparisons.
method Nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning partial rankings.
result Finds partial rankings that distinguish meaningful differences only when data supports it.
Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been a successful approach to optimise functions which are expensive to evaluate and whose observations are noisy. Classical BO algorithms, however, do not account for errors about the location where observations are taken, which is a common issue in problems with physical components. In …
Paper simplifies balancing weights by relaxing outcome assumptions.
problem Estimating missing outcomes in a target population.
method Relaxes outcome assumptions to simplify balancing weights.
result Balancing weights can be simplified with convex loss and minimum worst-case bias.
Study evaluates and compares numerical differentiation methods on three case studies.
problem Evaluating and comparing numerical differentiation methods for efficiency.
method Forward, Backward, and Centered Finite-Difference methods applied at two levels of precision.
result Different methods perform differently across case studies, with varying levels of computational cost and accuracy.
Market competition depends on computational complexity, P != NP makes it impossible.
problem Competitive market outcomes require computational intractability.
method Analyzes the computational hardness of collusion detection in markets.
result If P != NP, collusion detection is computationally infeasible, making collusion unstable.
A method corrects bias in estimating a high-dimensional classification rule using auxiliary outcomes.
problem Bias in estimating a high-dimensional classification rule using only one outcome.
method Robust transfer learning approach combining MTL and calibration steps.
result Final estimator achieves lower error than using only the target outcome.
Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of confounders, factors that affec…
In applications such as recommendation systems and revenue management, it is important to predict preferences on items that have not been seen by a user or predict outcomes of comparisons among those that have never been compared. A popular discrete choice model of multinomial logit model captures the structure of the …
PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
Fuses ITRs for primary and secondary outcomes to minimize harm.
problem Learn an ITR maximizing primary outcome while minimizing harm to secondary outcomes.
method Introduces fusion penalty to encourage similar recommendations for different outcomes. Two algorithms estimate the ITR using surrogate loss functions.
result Agreement rate between primary and secondary optimal ITRs converges faster than ignoring secondary outcomes.
Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
problem Timeliness of write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific issues.
method Comparative analysis of write-downs driven by macroeconomic and industry outcomes versus firm-specific outcomes.
result Firms delay write-downs for adverse macroeconomic and industry outcomes but not for firm-specific issues.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
New method handles many noisy proxy controls for causal inference.
problem Causal inference with many noisy proxy controls and unknown confounders.
method Linear models with rank-restricted and sparse nuisance parameters, penalization methods.
result Estimators achieve better performance in high dimensions, especially with many proxies.
Proposes a deep learning framework for estimating counterfactual outcomes.
problem Challenges in estimating individual outcomes under different treatments.
method Deep variational Bayesian framework integrating factual and similar subjects' outcomes.
result Rigorously integrates individual features and similar subjects' responses for counterfactual outcomes.
Optimizes noisy IS with better proposal densities.
problem Improving IS estimators with noisy data.
method Derives optimal proposal densities considering noise variance.
result Optimal proposals enhance IS estimators by focusing on noisy regions.
The study uses transfer learning to compare surgical outcomes across racial/ethnic subgroups.
problem Difficulty in comparing surgical outcomes due to racial/ethnic and geographic differences.
method Causal inference framework and transfer learning to incorporate data from multiple populations.
result Racial and ethnic differences in surgical outcomes are found, with non-Hispanic Black patients experiencing wide variability.
DEBIAS learns causal effects from psychiatric longitudinal data by optimizing outcome weights.
problem Causal inference challenges in psychiatric longitudinal data due to symptom heterogeneity and latent confounding.
method DEBIAS algorithm that optimizes outcome weights to maximize durable treatment effects and minimize confounding.
result DEBIAS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in recovering causal effects for clinically interpretable composite outcomes.
New approach tackles decision-making under predictions that shape outcomes.
problem Challenges in learning optimal decision rules when predictions influence outcomes.
method Introduces performative omniprediction, a predictor that encodes optimal decision rules for multiple objectives.
result Efficient performative omnipredictors exist under a natural restriction of outcome performativity.
Variational hybrid quantum-classical optimization represents one of the most promising avenue to show the advantage of nowadays noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers in solving hard problems, such as finding the minimum-energy state of a Hamiltonian or solving some machine-learning tasks. In these devices noise is…
New method identifies proxies for causal effects on multiple outcomes.
problem Estimating causal effects in scenarios with multiple outcomes and treatments.
method Causal discovery method leveraging multiple outcomes as proxies for each treatment effect.
result Parallel studies of multiple outcomes can assist in causal identification.
Study uses surrogate data to improve treatment effect estimation with scarce outcome data.
problem Limited outcome data hinders estimating treatment effects.
method Uses abundant surrogate data to estimate treatment effects without stringent assumptions.
result Improves precision of treatment effect estimation.
The paper targets optimal interventions for long-term outcomes using imputed data and policy learning.
problem Maximizing long-term outcomes observed only in the future.
method Imputing missing long-term outcomes and using a doubly-robust approach for policy evaluation and optimization.
result The approach outperforms simple short-term proxies and achieves significant revenue impact over three years.
Bayesian optimization learns DM preferences for multi-outcome experiments.
problem Optimizing expensive experiments with unknown utility functions and multiple outcomes.
method Alternates preference learning and Bayesian optimization, using pairwise comparisons.
result Preference exploration strategies improve Bayesian optimization performance.