Paper proposes a novel policy distillation method for better order execution in noisy markets.
problem Effective order execution in noisy and imperfect market conditions.
method Policy distillation method to guide reinforcement learning towards optimal trading strategies.
result Significant improvements over various baselines in order execution.
Paper introduces a novel reward function for noisy financial markets using imitation learning.
problem Noisy reward function in financial markets hinders RL agent performance.
method Integrates imitation learning feedback with reinforcement learning to improve reward function design.
result Improves financial performance metrics compared to traditional benchmarks and RL agents.
Market inefficiencies arise from density-dependent returns in a noisy environment.
problem Market inefficiencies and excess volatility.
method Developed a market model using ecological concepts.
result Market dynamics are density-dependent, leading to inefficiencies.
Algorithm learns fair division from noisy feedback in uncertain markets.
problem Learning fair division in uncertain markets with noisy feedback.
method Wrapper algorithms using dual averaging to learn item and agent values from bandit feedback.
result Asymptotically achieves optimal Nash social welfare in linear Fisher markets.
DHLNN improves deep hedging for financial derivatives with faster convergence and better stability.
problem Challenges in computational inefficiency, sensitivity to noisy data, and optimization complexity in deep hedging methods.
method Integrates periodic fixed-gradient optimization and linearized training dynamics to stabilize and accelerate deep learning model training.
result Demonstrates faster convergence, improved stability, and superior hedging performance across diverse market scenarios.
Trend-following strategies outperform in a noisy financial market, mirroring ancient wisdom.
problem Navigating the complex, noisy financial market environment.
method Agent-based model with 10,000 agents representing different trading strategies.
result Trend-following strategies are structurally more robust than mean-reversion strategies.
RL framework optimizes trading costs in noisy markets.
problem Optimal execution and placement in noisy markets.
method Dual-window Denoise PPO RL network, imitation learning, comprehensive market features, flexible action formulation.
result RL agents outperformed TWAP strategy in execution cost.
Based on the tick-by-tick stock prices from the German and American stock markets, we study the statistical properties of the distribution of the individual stocks and the index returns in highly collective and noisy intervals of trading, separately. We show that periods characterized by the strong inter-stock coupling…
We introduce an auto-regressive model which captures the growing nature of realistic markets. In our model agents do not trade with other agents, they interact indirectly only through a market. Change of their wealth depends, linearly on how much they invest, and stochastically on how much they gain from the noisy mark…
Trade-R1 bridges verifiable rewards to stochastic financial markets via process-level reasoning verification.
problem Extending RL to financial markets where rewards are verifiable but noisy.
method A verification method that transforms reasoning over financial documents into a structured RAG task, using a triangular consistency metric.
result DSR achieves superior cross-market generalization while maintaining reasoning consistency.
Combines historical and market data for better portfolio selection.
problem Improving portfolio selection through diverse information integration.
method Bayesian learning via Gaussian mixture model to harmonize historical and market data.
result The method enhances forecasting accuracy and robustness across various capital markets.
Market competition depends on computational complexity, P != NP makes it impossible.
problem Competitive market outcomes require computational intractability.
method Analyzes the computational hardness of collusion detection in markets.
result If P != NP, collusion detection is computationally infeasible, making collusion unstable.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the most common nonparametric method for estimating the volatility structure of Gaussian interest rate models. One major difficulty in the estimation of these models is the fact that forward rate curves are not directly observable from the market so that non-trivial observational e…
This research tackles unsupervised topic extraction in noisy social media data.
problem Capturing customer insights from social media data is challenging due to noise and heterogeneity.
method The research presents three nonparametric approaches based on the Variational Autoencoder framework: Embedded Dirichlet Process, Embedded Hierarchical Dirichlet Process, and time-aware Dynamic Embedded Dirichlet Process.
result The models achieve equal to better performance than state-of-the-art methods in topic extraction from noisy social media data.
Privacy subsidy found in market trading with noisy direction signals.
problem Analyzing welfare and bid-ask spread in a market with privacy mechanisms.
method Closed-form derivation of bid-ask spread and welfare under flip-noise direction observation.
result Privacy subsidy of μηΔ from liquidity pool to traders, robust across models. In order to simulate the complex phenomena manifested in stock markets, we introduce a continuous asynchronous model in which millions of individual traders interact through a central orders matching mechanism, just as it happens in real stock markets. Each trader has a unique decision function, which allows him/ her t…
Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estim…
Study shows marketable order routing to wholesalers benefits all traders, leading to lower market depth and price volatility.
problem Determining the preference of retail traders for marketable order routing.
method Two models: one for market makers competing for retail order flow (Bertrand model) and another for price-taking competitive liquidity providers (open exchange model).
result Routing marketable orders to wholesalers is preferred by all traders, leading to mean reverting inventories and lower market depth.
This paper is part of an ongoing investigation of "pragmatic information", defined in Weinberger (2002) as "the amount of information actually used in making a decision". Because a study of information rates led to the Noiseless and Noisy Coding Theorems, two of the most important results of Shannon's theory, we begin …
LARA forecasts financial asset trends by refining noisy labels and extracting profitable samples.
problem Low signal-to-noise ratio and stochastic nature of financial data lead to poor predictions.
method LARA combines LA-Attention and RA-Labeling to refine and extract profitable samples.
result LARA significantly outperforms existing methods on Qlib platform.
Study on price formation in a market with a major player and minor firms.
problem Equilibrium price formation in a market with a major financial firm and many minor firms.
method Analyzes the equilibrium price process in both finite and mean field models, considering idiosyncratic and common noises.
result Derives the functional form of price impact for the major firm in both market sizes.
In this paper, we consider a risk-based optimal investment problem of an insurer in a regime-switching jump diffusion model with noisy memory. Using the model uncertainty modeling, we formulate the investment problem as a zero-sum, stochastic differential delay game between the insurer and the market, with a convex ris…
This paper studies the equilibrium pricing of asset shares in the presence of dynamic private information. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent who observes the firm value, noise traders, and competitive market makers who set share prices using the total order flow as a noisy signal of the insider's inf…
Optimizes profit in targeted marketing across multiple markets with varying marketing expenditures.
problem Maximizing profit in a sequential marketing strategy with multiple markets and varying marketing costs.
method Near-optimal algorithms in an adversarial bandit setting, proving regret bounds for different demand curve types.
result Proved near-optimal regret bounds for the profit-maximization problem in targeted marketing.
We analyse the structure of the distribution of eigenvalues of the stock market correlation matrix with increasing length of the time series representing the price changes. We use 100 highly-capitalized stocks from the American market and relate result to the corresponding ensemble of Wishart random matrices. It turns …
Improved deep learning performance in financial markets by using rank space.
problem High volatility and low signal-to-noise ratio in equity market dynamics.
method Transformed equity market data from name space to rank space, enabling better learning by DNNs.
result DNNs achieve superior performance in statistical arbitrage in rank space compared to name space.
Deep RL algorithms struggle with noisy rewards in portfolio optimisation.
problem Evaluating deep reinforcement learning for portfolio optimisation with market impact.
method Simulated data with geometric Brownian motion and market impact model; Kelly criterion as upper bound; PPO and A2C with GAE; clipping; hidden Markov model for regime changes.
result PPO and A2C with GAE perform better with noisy rewards; PPO with HMM learns different policies for regime changes.
The modelling of financial markets presents a problem which is both theoretically challenging and practically important. The theoretical aspects concern the issue of market efficiency which may even have political implications \cite{Cuthbertson}, whilst the practical side of the problem has clear relevance to portfolio…
Study finds on-chain data can proxy off-chain cryptocurrency pricing.
problem Develop methods to proxy off-chain cryptocurrency pricing using on-chain data.
method Graphical models, mutual information, and ensemble machine learning.
result A significant amount of pricing information is contained in on-chain data, but precise prices are hard to recover except on short time scales.
We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit-maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Due to noisy private information about the fundamental value, the agents form different evaluations about heteroge…
A new network learns market conditions and predicts stock performance.
problem Optimizing stock portfolio performance in the US equities market.
method Residual Switching Network combining two ResNets: a switching module and a main module.
result The residual switching network strategy outperformed other models with an average annual Sharpe ratio of 2.22.
Deep learning models reconstruct volatility surfaces from noisy data under no-arbitrage constraints.
problem Reconstructing implied volatility surfaces from sparse and noisy option quotes.
method Compared multiple neural architectures including Transformers, U-Nets, and variational autoencoders.
result Transformer and U-Net architectures achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, especially under sparse observation regimes.
Paper uses SAC and DDPG to optimize cryptocurrency portfolios.
problem Adapting to volatile and nonlinear cryptocurrency markets.
method Reinforcement learning with SAC and DDPG algorithms.
result SAC and DDPG outperform traditional strategies in cryptocurrency markets.
The paper explains stock market predictability through a model of heterogeneous beliefs.
problem Understanding and predicting stock market behavior based on news and investor beliefs.
method A discrete-time model of heterogeneous beliefs where some agents receive noisy signals about asset fundamentals.
result Momentum and reversal in stock prices arise from investors' incorrect beliefs about signal accuracy and fundamental values.
We study the informational efficiency of a market with a single traded asset. The price initially differs from the fundamental value, about which the agents have noisy private information (which is, on average, correct). A fraction of traders revise their price expectations in each period. The price at which the asset …
Hybrid ResNet and RMT improve covariance matrix estimation for cryptocurrency portfolios.
problem Noisy, non-Gaussian financial data leads to unstable covariance matrices.
method Combines RMT regularization and ResNet learning for data-driven corrections.
result Hybrid estimator outperforms traditional methods in portfolio optimization.
Framework uses RL with dynamic embedding to outperform benchmarks in volatile markets.
problem Challenges in high-dimensional, non-stationary, and noisy market information.
method Dynamic embedding of market information using generative autoencoders and online meta-learning in a reinforcement learning framework.
result Framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and PTO approach during market stress.
Paper presents a deep learning method for estimating asset return precision matrices in noisy financial markets.
problem Estimating precision matrices of asset returns in low signal-to-noise ratio environments.
method Non-linear factor model within deep learning framework, consistent estimator with error covariance estimator.
result Superior accuracy in simulations and empirical data.
In this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in supply and demand are slowly incorporated into prices. Because revealed market liquidity is extremely low, large …
Market-GAN adds context control to financial market data generation.
problem Lack of context labels and precision in generating context-aligned financial data.
method Proposes Contextual Market Dataset and Market-GAN architecture integrating GAN, autoencoder, and supervisors.
result Market-GAN outperforms state-of-the-art models in Dow Jones data generation.
An asymmetric information model is introduced for the situation in which there is a small agent who is more susceptible to the flow of information in the market than the general market participant, and who tries to implement strategies based on the additional information. In this model market participants have access t…
We present a brief overview of random matrix theory (RMT) with the objectives of highlighting the computational results and applications in financial markets as complex systems. An oft-encountered problem in computational finance is the choice of an appropriate epoch over which the empirical cross-correlation return ma…
Contingent Convertible bonds (CoCos) are debt instruments that convert into equity or are written down in times of distress. Existing pricing models assume conversion triggers based on market prices and on the assumption that markets can always observe all relevant firm information. But all Cocos issued so far have tri…
GPT model shows promise in financial market predictions.
problem Challenges in predicting stock market movements due to noisy data.
method Comparing GPT model with BERT model using Federal Reserve Beige Book data.
result GPT model has look-ahead bias, traditional models still perform better.
Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only …
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.
problem Optimizing portfolios in a market with hidden Gaussian drift and random expert signals.
method Modeling the hidden drift using Kalman filters and solving the utility maximization problem with dynamic programming.
result Derivation of optimal portfolio weights and utility maximization under the given market conditions.
Study shows how high-budget agents can manipulate prediction markets.
problem Manipulation of prediction markets by high-budget agents.
method Agent-based simulations and analytic characterization of price dynamics.
result High-budget agents can temporarily shift prediction market prices.
A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can be expressed as a function of a colle…